Pricing strategy and sales forecasting for Pringly Division products

Pringly

A meeting of senior managers at the Pringly Division has been called to discuss the pricing strategy for a new product. Part of the discussion will focus on estimating sales for the new product. Over the past years, a number of new products have failed to meet their sales targets. It appears that the company's profit for the year will be lower than budget and the main reason for this is the disappointing sales of new products. A new technique for estimating the probability of achieving target sales and profits will be discussed. This requires managers to estimate demand for the new product and assign probabilities. A range, rather than only one goal will be established.

Proposed Scenario - One

Selling price of $170

Annual fixed costs at $20,000,000

Variable costs are $30 per unit

Target Profit is $4,000,000

A number of managers are in favor of this strategy, as they believe it is important to reduce costs.

Table 1 - Scenario One Calculations

Price

$170.00

Fixed Costs

$20,000,000.00

Variable Costs

$30.00

Break Even (Units)

142,857.14

Target Profit

$4,000,000.00

Target Units for Expected Profit

171,428.57

Proposed Scenario -- Two

The second strategy is to increase spending on advertising and promotions and set a selling price of $200. With the higher selling price the annual fixed costs would increase to $25,000,000. The marketing department is adamant that increased emphasis on advertising and promotions is essential.

Selling price of $200

Annual fixed costs at $25,000,000

Variable costs are $30 per unit

Target Profit is $4,000,000

Table 2 - Scenario Two Calculations

Price

Fixed Costs

25

Variable Costs

30

Break Even (Units)

147,058.82

Target Profit

4

Target Units for Expected Profit

170,588.24

Product Demand

The following probability distributions have been agreed, with the managers after consultation with all departments, and are the same for both selling prices.

Table 3 - Expected Demand

Estimated demand (units)

Estimated probability (units)

150,000

0.25

180,000

0.5

200,000

0.25

Table 4 - Profits for Unit Probabilities

Estimated demand (units)

Estimated probability (units)

Scenario 1 Profits

Scenario 2 Profits

150,000

0.25

$1,000,000.00

$500,000.00

180,000

0.5

$25,199,970.00

$30,599,970.00

200,000

0.25

$27,857,142.86

$33,852,941.18

Figure 1 - Revenue Streams for Both Scenarios

Discussion

The second scenario has been deemed to be the most beneficial route for the organization to take. The two revenue streams are equal at roughly 166,667 units. This means that if that is the actual sales amount of units than each strategy will produce the exact same amount of total profits. However, since the most likely demand will be at the 180,000 units mark, the second scenario will most likely produce the greatest profits. Under the second scenario, the company also has to sell 170,589 units to break even with the included expected $4,000,000 profit; which is also far less than the expected demand. Therefore the company should go ahead with the new product. In regard for the additional fixed costs that are included in scenario two, the return on investment will also break even by comparison and the 166,667 unit sales mark. At the 180,000 expected demand, the return on investment will equate to eight percent return and grow higher as unit sales increase. This excludes any consideration of residual sales which could also work to increase the ROI if the product continues sales in further periods. Finally, this analysis does not include any regard for intangibles that might be created through marketing such as brand equity. Under scenario two, such intangibles could as add value to brand image as well as other product lines.