Public Budgeting in America Holistic

Public Budgeting in America

Holistic Systems Theory #10

Inputs #11

Outputs #3

Marginal Cost Analysis #9

Crosswalk #7

Qualitative revenue-forecasting analysis #14

Method of averages #16

Econometric forecasts #20

Trend Line Forecasts #12

Productivity #1

Auditing #2

Internal Audits #4

External Audits #6

Demand-responsive programs #17

Directed programs #8

Overhead #19

Direct Costs #18

Forecasting #15

Post-Audit #13

An issues assessment will help the agency to understand what issues it might face. The most important subject of an issues assessment is for the organization to gain a better understanding of its own outputs, procedures and deficiencies therein. The agency must identify those areas in which it underperforms and attempt to determine the cause of that underperformance. If the agency does not understand what the issues are, it will never be able to solve them.

Issues assessments can include both qualitative and quantitative components. The latter will involved gaining an understanding of the key stakeholders, the details of the issue itself and the objectives that will be achieved in dealing with the issue. The issue will be assessed with respect to the costs that are needed to achieve these objectives and the organization's ability to meet these objectives within the given time frame. By the end of the issues assessment, the agency will understand what the issue is, why it is an issue, who it affects, and how the issue can best be solved.

Issues assessments seek to determine the root causes of issues. This helps guide government response to the issue, allowing for better allocation of human and financial resources. The root causes of the issue will allow for the sources of errors or weakness to be identified and subsequently dealt with. By doing this, agencies can improve their efficiency overall.

Lastly, an issues assessment must look at the chains of responsibility. By understanding how the system works, the issue can be more easily solved. Thus, understanding chains of command, managerial roles and responsibilities, and organizational constraints, the issues assessment can help the agency better understand the issues it faces.

Question 3. The qualitative approach to forecasting is based on the assumption that the human brain has a better understanding of the future than do mathematical models. Humans are able to digest large quantities of information and are better capable of dealing with ambiguity, something that is a primary feature of the forecasting activity. This approach relies on the expertise of the person or people involved, however. As such, it is typically at least complemented by some form of quantitative forecasting.

Time series forecasting is a method by which forecasts of the future are produced based on past events. There are many different techniques of time series forecasting, such as trend line or method of averages, but each technique is based on extrapolation of past data into the future. This technique is simple, and if future conditions are reasonably similar to past conditions it can also be fairly accurate. The downside of time series forecasting is that it relies on operational stability and a long time series to be truly effective. It does not take into account major shifts in the environment that may otherwise be factored in by a human.