Russia Iran the US and China at Work in the Middle East

The UAE and Israel

Introduction

Israel has been, for most of its existence, involved in some form of conflict with the Arab world. However, the Arab world itself is largely conflicted between the Sunni and Shia states. Israel’s recent pivot toward forming greater relations with the Sunni states has indicated an improvement in relations between Israel and at least part of the Arab world. Yet, making matters more complicated is the fact that Palestine remains largely Sunni, and Palestine has viewed the Sunni states’ relations with Israel as a betrayal of the Palestinian people’s fight for independence and autonomy. For that reason, Palestine has disapproved the new relations between Israel and the UAE. As a Sunni majority state, the UAE has long sided with the rest of the Sunni Arab world in support of Palestine (Soriano, 2014). But now that has changed to some extent. This paper will discuss why the UAE chose now to start relations with Israel, what the positives and negatives of the alliance are, and what new challenges will emerge in the Middle East as a result of this new relation.

Why the UAE Chose Now to Start Relations with Israel

One reason the UAE has chosen now to start relations with Israel has to do with the various proxy wars going on in the Middle East between Sunni and Shia powers. The wars in Syria and Yemen are examples of exactly this type of proxy conflict. The rise of ISIS (ISIL), a Sunni extremist group supported by the Sunni states (Saudi Arabia, UAE) in an attempt to overthrow Assad and the Shia population of Syria, is one part of the complex dynamic in the Middle East (Bahi, 2018). On top of this is the growing threat of power represented by Qatar and Iran. While Qatar is a mainly Sunni state, like Palestine, Egypt, KSA and UAE, Qatar has been identified by the KSA, UAE and Egypt as supporting Hammas, Hezbollah and the Muslim Brotherhood (BBC, 2017). Likewise, the war in Yemen between Houthis (backed by Iran) and the Sunni-Wahabi alliance of KSA, UAE (Sunni Gulf Arab countries plus Egypt, Pakistan and Turkey) is a case of further tension. These various frays have made it important for nations in the Middle East to clarify where they stand and to align intelligence communities so as to establish a powerful network. This is what the UAE has done recently in its pact with Israel signed in 2020.

The proxy war in Yemen has been ongoing for years. Saudi Arabia deployed about 100 aircraft in the Yemen intervention, in what has been called the “Storm of Resolve,” and planes from Egypt, Morocco, Jordan, Sudan, UAE, Kuwait, Qatar, and Bahrain also took part in the initiative to crush the Houthis and defeat the Iranian backed group (Scollon, 2015). The Houthis have focused largely on self-determination, as they opposed the US-allied president of Yemen, Abd Rabbu Mansour Hadi. Hadi, meanwhile, fled to the KSA, while a Southern Transitional Council has been created in Aden and is supported by the UAE (Alshuwaiter, 2020). Backed by the KSA and the UAE as well as the US, Hadi’s government still exerts some influence in parts of Yemen. Houthis do not want Hadi as their leader, as they view him as a puppet of an alliance between the West and the KSA. Houthis have thus found support from Iran.

In these examples, one sees the complexity of affairs in the Middle East and why an alliance between the UAE and Israel at this time now makes some sense. The UAE and Israel have been collaborating for some years on intelligence matters, and the formalization of this relationship is simply the next step in creating a new alliance to counter the Russia-Iran-Hezbollah-Syria axis. Essentially, it is all an extension of the Sunni-Shia conflict in the Arab world, with Israel siding with the Sunni states to counter what it views as the Shia threat emanating from Syria, Iraq and Iran.

The Sunni states view Iran as a threat if it is permitted to grow in energy dominance. That is why the sanctions on Iran under the Trump Administration were viewed favorably by the Sunni states and Israel. Israel also sees Iran as a threat, as their conflict goes back many decades and the rhetoric aimed at each other has always been hostile.

Under the Trump Administration there was a push to resolve some of these tensions, with Jared Kushner acting as a mediator between Netanyahu and the UAE with regard to signing the 2020 pact between the two states (Alterman, 2020). The idea was to lock in and normalize relations between the two states before Trump potentially left office. One condition of the pact, however, was that Israel not move forward with plans to annex the West Bank. The West Bank has long been occupied by Israel but it is legally the possession of Palestine. Palestine is majority Sunni, like the UAE; thus, in order to formalize diplomatic relations with Israel, UAE wanted to ensure that no annexation of the Sunni land would take place. Israel agreed not to move forward with annexation plans and the agreement was struck. The only problem here is that the Palestinian people have viewed this as a betrayal by UAE ((Baker et al., 2020).

The significance of the deal between the UAE and Israel is that it represents a collapse in Arab solidarity (Alterman, 2020). For the better part of a century, the Arab world has resisted normalizing relations with Israel over the Palestinian conflict. The deal with UAE marks a shift from that policy on the part of the Arab world. The UAE has essentially declared that it is an independently-minded state in the Arab world and that it does not wish to blindly align itself with all other Sunni states on all matters, according to Alterman (2020). From this perspective, the deal suggests that regional stability is a goal of the two states. However, the facts remain that the Sunni states and the Shia states are still opposed to one another through the various proxy wars and the entry of Russia into the Middle East has clearly nudged the Sunni states closer together. Since Israel is a major player in the Middle East with especially close ties to the US, the deal between the UAE and Israel could be seen as a way for the UAE to form closer ties with the US as well in the face of a Russia-Iran-Syria axis. The role of the US in the situation should not be understated, as the US is essentially engaged in proxy wars with Russia and China as well.

Positives and Negatives of the Alliance

The positives of the new alliance are that it opens the door to greater partnership between Israel, UAE and even the US. Prior to the normalization of relations, the UAE was accused by the US of supporting terrorism (Sly, 2018). In an effort to peal the UAE away from a potential collaboration with Russia, the US helped to broker this deal between the UAE and Israel. It is similar to the way the US was trying to sway Egypt away from the Soviet Union under Nasser and Sadat.

As Khakhar & Rammal (2013) point out, the Arab world is “an important economic region due to its natural resources, geographic location and political influence” (p. 578). The UAE plays a particularly important geopolitical role as well. It lies between the Gulf of Oman and the Persian Gulf, and sits between Iran to the north and the KSA to the south. It separates Iraq, Kuwait and Qatar from the Arabian Sea. It thus serves an important role in terms of facilitating trade, and should a new global war break out, it is better to have the UAE on one’s side than not. As an oil rich state that is culturally Sunni yet not opposed to Western overtures, it has an important bearing on Middle East events (Weir, 2003).

Collaboration with the UAE also offers some better protection in terms of combating international money laundering, as the UAE is poised to enforce money laundering laws that will help cut down on the funding of terrorism and other criminal activities on the global stage (Arnone & Padoan, 2007). From an international perspective, a working alliance with the UAE is important in terms of controlling illegal money flow. Thus, the deal with the UAE facilitates anti-money laundering initiatives in a positive way as well.

Furthermore, as Alterman (2020) notes, “the Emiratis have created a large number of opportunities for themselves. Not only will the Israelis be eager to make deals on Emirati terms, but the Emiratis also have enhanced their relations with both Democrats and Republicans in the United States at a time of very polarized politics.” As Israel is an important link between the Middle East and the US, the UAE stands to benefit from working with Israel as a door into American negotiations. The UAE could possibly receive upgraded weapons systems that it desires. Indeed, as Bowen (2020) reports, “Americans helped seal the deal with the promise of advanced weapons that in the past the UAE has barely been able to window-shop. They include the F-35 stealth fighter and the EA-18G Growler electronic warfare aircraft.” Likewise, Israel is bound to feel more secure in the Middle East as result of this deal since now it will no longer be as isolated by the Sunni Arab world.

The potential negatives of this deal, however, are that it increases tension in the Middle East. Israel may feel more secure with an ally among the Gulf States—but Iran is like to feel increasingly threatened and surrounding. This in turn could lead to an increased commitment on the part of Iran to work more closely with Russia and China, both of whom have been targeted by the US in recent years. China and Russia are often touted in the West as enemies number one and number two (Neuman, 2021). If Iran, Russia and China form a formal alliance in the face of increased cooperation between Israel, the UAE and the West, it could mean that the current “Cold War 2.0” seen in geopolitics will become a veritable hot war.

The other negative of this deal can be seen from the Palestinian perspective. Palestine has counted on the support of the Sunni Arab world against Israeli occupation and aggression. With the UAE now working with Israel, the Palestinian people have felt betrayed. While the UAE did insist that Israel abandon plans to annex the West Bank, this is cold comfort to Palestinians who have felt oppressed by the Israeli state for decades.

The deal also does not necessarily mean that other Gulf States will follow suit. The UAE is currently standing out from the rest of the Sunni Arab world by formally working with Israel. Other than Bahrain, no other states have made similar deals. This may mean that the UAE becomes isolated and that Israel’s hopes of forming a greater alliance to combat the Russia-Syria-Iran axis will come to nothing. It all depends upon where the situation goes from here. The Sunni states and Israel have collaborated in the past on intelligence matters, but a formal pact facilitating diplomatic relations is another matter altogether as it is has cultural implications that can upset many populations throughout the Arab world. In spite of the Sunni-Shia divide in the Arab world, the states still tend to view Israel with suspicion for the most part. This deal may be a turning point in that view, or it may be nothing more than a vain attempt to alter it.

New Challenges That Will Emerge in the Middle East because of This New Relation

New challenges will emerge because it is not just a matter of Israel and the UAE forming a deal. Other major players are watching and making decisions as well. Closer collaboration between the UAE and Israel means that Russia, Syria and Iran will be discussing what the relationship means and what possible implications it might have on their own countries. Russia came to the assistance of Syria when ISIL invaded because it feared destabilization of Syria would affect its own interests. With ISIL being an extreme Sunni group, and other Sunni states and Israel all assisting it in combating Syria in its attempt to overthrow Assad and take over the Shia state of Syria, Russia and Iran are both looking into the deal to see what steps they will have to take to act in a precautionary manner.

China is also viewing the agreement with caution. That said, both China and Russia have avoided denouncing the deal. They are two states that try to remain diplomatic in the face of all new developments in the Middle East. They both attempt to remain on diplomatic grounds with Israel and with the other states. However, when their own national interests are put into jeopardy (Russia with its access to the Mediterranean through Syria and China with its One Belt One Road Initiative), they will take time to consider potential outcomes. Ramani (2020), for instance, states that “Russia views the normalization as an opportunity to bolster its regional standing but is concerned by the deal’s implications for the military balance against Iran.” Ramani (2020) also notes that “although China welcomes Israel-UAE coordination against Turkey in the eastern Mediterranean, Beijing is uncertain about the stabilizing impact of the normalization deal and its potential implications for Chinese economic interests in the Middle East.” The US after all has made it clear that it objects to Chinese expansion and influence in the Middle East; it opposes the Belt and Road Initiative, which is a concern to China. Russia too has to be concerned about new alliances that might lead to increased tensions in the Middle East since it has invested so much time, energy and resources into assisting Syria and coming to its aid in the fight against ISIL.

Russia has actually viewed the deal between the UAE and Israel as a way to help increase its own influence in the region, if possible. Russia Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has commented that he would like to host a new round of talks between Israel and Palestine in response to the UAE-Israel deal in hopes of settling whatever tension might come about in response (Ramani, 2021). At the same time, Russia was hoping more would come of the UAE-Iran talks: it had its own plan for promoting security in the Middle East (Belenkaya, 2019). One challenge now is that the UAE may no longer be willing to act in good faith talks between Iran and the KSA, both of which are at loggerheads over the war in Yemen (Ramani, 2021). An important militaristic dimension of the deal is that if the UAE receives a military upgrade from the US and Israel also continues to receive grants to bolster its military from the US, Iran will turn to Russia for the S-400 missile defense system. Russia has made it clear that it does not support the US sanctions against Iran and its relationship with Iran is one that it will continue to foster (Tasmin News, 2020).

From China’s perspective, the UAE-Israel deal is seen as hopeful because China believes it could put additional pressure on Turkey, which China views as a destabilizing factor in the Middle East (Zhenqing, 2019). China wants to prevent war in the Middle East because of its ambitions to implement the Belt and Road Initiative, which it hopes will facilitate global trade and enable it to strengthen its own economy. At the same time, there are challenges that come with deal in China’s view: first of all, there is likely to be blowback to the deal because it will be seen by groups like Hamas as a threat to the Arab world (Zhongmin, 2020). Additionally, some observers in China expect that Israel will not uphold its end of the deal with respect to the West Bank, as Israeli policy for decades has been to occupy and settle the West Bank (Ramani, 2020).