Saudi Arabia Is a Large,

Saudi Arabia is a large, mostly desert country in the Middle East, occupying much of the Arabian Peninsula. Saudi Arabia is a middle income country if measured by per capita GDP, which is 55th in the world, just behind the Czech Republic. However, wealth distribution is a significant issue in Saudi Arabia, as most of the country's wealth derives from its oil reserves, and these are controlled by a small number of ruling elites. The country suffers from a high unemployment rate, especially among its youth (Morgan, 2011).

Geographically, Saudi Arabia is a vast country that is almost entirely desert, with very high temperatures most of the year, negligible surface water and vegetation (CIA World Factbook, 2011). The country relies on underground water sources, and these are being depleted, which is a major environmental concern and has prompted reliance on desalination plants (Ibid).

IPCC Climate Change Scenario

Many aspects of climate change will not have an impact on Saudi Arabia. The country is already devoid of vegetation, so growing conditions will not be affected, nor will water supplies, which are underground. While temperatures are predicted to rise 5-6 degrees in most of the country in the IPCC scenario, Saudis are already reliant on air conditioning and nighttime activity as a result of their harsh climate. These factors will not change with higher temperatures, although there will be more heat-related deaths, especially in the summer. There is some risk to Jeddah, the second-largest city and the country's major port, stemming from rising sea levels but most Saudis live in elevated areas. There may also be increased intensity of winter thunderstorms in Jeddah and autumn storms in the Asir region, which experiences Indian Ocean monsoons and is perhaps the only real fertile area of the country.

Climate Change Policy

Saudi Arabia is a signatory to the Kyoto Protocol. The nation is wary, however, of certain aspects of climate change that would reduce oil consumption. OPEC nations are "opposed to emissions reductions targets imposed by industrialized nations that threaten global oil demand growth" (Daya, 2011). This indicates that while Saudi Arabia is in principle concerned about climate change, there are significant differences of opinion within the country's political leadership about the issue. The concerns are mainly economic in nature -- the country may face higher costs as a result of climate change but it needs oil money to pay those costs.

There should be some flexibility in Saudi Arabia's position on the matter. There are several considerations at work. The first is that while the country needs to earn revenue from oil, Saudi Arabia also needs to diversify its economy. Despite having the world's largest proven oil reserves, Saudi Arabia will eventually run out of oil, and must be able to survive in a post-oil world. With reserves expected to last over 100 years, however, the current leadership is not oriented to looking towards the future to the same degree that some of its neighbours are.

Saudi Arabia's unemployment problem is also a double-edged sword. Diversifying away from oil dependence economically would create jobs for the nation's youth, something that will benefit the country significantly. However, dealing with unemployment in the short run means leveraging the country's oil wealth to build other industries. It also would require implementing a greater degree of wealth distribution, something the country's leadership has been hesitant to do. Thus, Saudi Arabia is caught between a short-run dependency on oil that has it opposing tight restrictions on oil consumption, but has a long-run interest in moving away from the oil economy, something that will only be forced by decreasing oil revenues.

There are indications that Saudi Arabia is willing to be flexible in negotiations. It is unlikely that the country would accept limits on its own consumption of fossil fuels, because of its economic dependence on oil, high unemployment and the need to diversify its economy. However, despite OPEC's posturing, it is highly unlikely that Kyoto or any subsequent protocol would have a negative impact on the country's earnings from oil. The main reason is that a decrease in sales to Western regions will be made up for with sales to India, China and other growth regions that for some reason have been excluded from Kyoto.

Saudi Arabia's main trading partners are major energy consumers: Japan, China, the United States, South Korea, India and Singapore (CIA World Factbook, 2011). These nations in general are not the most supportive of Kyoto restrictions, and some of them like China and India are allowed to pollute at will. Most of these nations are working against improvements to climate change policies because of their dependence on oil consumption. They are also some of the most powerful countries in the world, and have a strong influence on climate change negotiations.

Politically, Saudi Arabia sees itself as a leader in the Arab world, and works closely with other Arab nations on policy. Most of these nations have outlooks similar to Saudi Arabia's, and these nations often form a bloc when dealing with international issues. Saudi Arabia is a key member of OPEC, which also works as a bloc, especially on issues that impact oil consumption. Saudi Arabia's level of influence, therefore, is high.

Conclusion