Executive protection security assessment for Thailand trip

¶ … supervisor for an elite executive protection team. The organization that is being protected is planning a one-week trip to Thailand. As part of the planning process for that trip, the author of this response will offer a total of six threats that can or might present themselves while the team is in Thailand. The author will offer a detailed summary of the nature of the threat, the severity potential of the threat, the probability of the threat coming to pass, the potential costs of life/property, the response that will be given to the threat as well as the time/duration, asset requirements, cost estimate and political/cultural implications of any response that might become necessary.

Risk One

Nature of Threat

The first threat that will be discussed are the regional and geographical concerns that are prevalent due to neighboring countries, nearby conflicts and so forth. Of course, Thailand is in an area of the world that is fairly chaotic and fairly conflict-stricken. It is close (or very close) to countries like Myanmar, China, India, Pakistan (and the rest of the Middle East) and so forth. One of the more major conflicts that has arisen at least fairly recently is the rise to nuclear power of Pakistan and India. Both of the countries possess nuclear weapons and this has been the case for a few years now. India is just across the Bay of Bengal from Thailand and Pakistan is just to the north and east of India. The rest of the Middle East is to the west and northwest from that spot (Riedel, 2014).

One country with problems that is a lot closer is Myanmar, otherwise known as Burma. The county directly borders Thailand and it is quite violent. They have a murder rate that is more than two dozen per 100,000 people. Indeed, they have roughly eight thousand murders a year. The political strife in that country has been quite palpable. There was a coup in 1988 and a military junta ran the country for quite a while after that. However, there was the Saffron Revolution in 2007 and that has led the way to elections in 2010 and 2012. Even so, the country is still very much around the edges (CFR, 2015).

In the other direction, up to the northeast, would be the Koreas and the situation that is mostly created by current North Korean despot Kim Jong Un. He, of course, took over when Kim Jong Il died a few years ago. Albeit crude, that country possesses nuclear arms as well and has fired a few test missiles. The range of their attack threat is fairly limited and China is nearby to sort of keep them in check. Even so, the proximity of North Korea to Thailand is a little concerning (Huessy, 2015).

Severity Potential of Threat

The severity potential is quite high when it comes to what could go wrong if a regional conflict erupts. This could hold true even if Thailand is not directly involved and even if the countries in question do not neighbor Thailand. Perhaps the direst circumstances would be the use of nuclear arms between Pakistan and India or between the Koreas. While there is some distance between both areas and Thailand, fallout and damage paths can be quite wide when it comes to nuclear arms so it could absolutely affect Thailand is the prevailing winds and weather is wrong and/or a missile goes astray due to rudimentary technology being used. The latter of those statements would apply mostly to North Korea as that country is barely functioning.

Probability of Occurrence

Overall, the areas mentioned are mostly calm right now but the players involved are quite chaotic. Even so, any flare-ups would likely be non-nuclear and regional in nature. As such, the threat to the executives is nearly zero.

Potential Costs in Terms of Life, Property & Response

The cost in terms of life and property would be huge in the extreme scenarios mentioned above but those are extremely unlikely. Unless the conflagration that happens travels to or erupts within Thailand itself, the direct threat to the executives or people in general in Thailand should be minimal.

Response Time & Duration

Barring nuclear fallout or the chance of a missile strike, the amount of time needed for response would be minimal. If the executives can be removed from the country while being kept safe, that will be done. IF that is not feasible, then they will be taken to a secure area and kept there until things settle down enough for a departure to be reasonable.

Response Asset Requirements

No special assets should be required except for accommodations to securely protect the executives if hunkering down is necessary. If that is not necessary, the normal hotel accommodations will probably suffice.

Response Cost Estimate

Little to no extra cost should be needed unless a secure location is needed.

Response Political/Cultural Risks in the Long-Term

Little to none as any conflagration from another country would almost certainly have nothing to do with the executives.

Risk Two

Nature of Threat

While the last threat talked about political and geographical issues external to Thailand, this one will talk about threats within the country. Not unlike Myanmar (Burma) used to be, Thailand is a monarchy whose power is enforced by a military junta. The current iteration of the power structure has only been in place for about a year so the political stability in Thailand is less than optimal. However, the ruling House of Chakri has been in power since the 1940's, so the monarchy leadership itself has been around for a while. There was a bloodless coup in Thailand as recently as 2006 and then again in 2014 when the aforementioned junta took over (APLLC, 2015; NPR, 2015).

Severity Potential of Threat

The threat directly to the executive is not really an issue. It is more an issue of violence and fighting breaking out and/or the leadership of the country being thrown into chaos. Even though the same overall ruling party has been in place for quite some time, it would seem their hold in power is less than firm.

Probability of Occurrence

Fairly high given that the country has had several upheavals or major political crises over the last ten years or so. Given that the executives will only be in the area for a week or so Potential Costs in Terms of Life, Property & Response

Coups and political strife could lead to a lot of different threats that may or may not impact the executive. Examples would include gun violence, shutting down of infrastructure, militant groups trying to assert their own power, looting, rioting and so forth.

Response Time & Duration

As with the prior scenario, the executive will be whisked out of the country quickly and quietly if possible. However, there will be a hunkering down in a secluded and secure area if that is not possible.

Response Asset Requirements

Accommodations that are secure (either the planned hotel or an alternate location) and the food/water needed for the people present.

Response Cost Estimate

Limited to the accommodations listed above…whatever the market rates are.

Response Political/Cultural Risks in the Long-Term

Nominal to none - the junta and such will not be concerned with the executive. They will be focused on other things.

Risk Three

Nature of Threat

The next threat to be discussed would be terrorism. While Thailand is certainly not at the top of the list when it comes to terrorism (that would be places like Iraq, Afghanistan and Syria at the present moment), Thailand is firmly in the top ten and it has been this way for the last two years. Indeed, a story by Didi Tatlow printed in January 2013 noted that Thailand was ranked number 8 on the terrorism frequency list with a total of 173 incidents and a total of 142 fatalities. This is a far cry from the totals for the top country, Iraq, which has 10 times both of those figures. However, it is still a concern (Tatlow, 2013; UK, 2015).

Severity Potential of Threat

173 incidents of terrorism in a year is quite close to one every other day and Thailand is not a very big country. Further, the areas of interest and the high-value targets for terrorists would be bustling and highly-traveled areas of import such as airports, main roads and so forth.

Probability of Occurrence

The rate cited above alone means roughly three to four incidents of terrorism will happen in Thailand while the executives are in the area, at least on average. This does not mean that it will impact the executive and his travel in any way but it will almost certainly happen somewhere in the country while the executive is there and there is at least a chance it will happen somewhere that the executive will be at some point (e.g. airport, main highway, etc.)

Potential Costs in Terms of Life, Property & Response

The biggest potential loss or cost when it comes to terrorist would be loss of life. Indeed, there is an about a 1:1 ratio in terms of attacks to fatalities and there are surely many other people that are maimed or otherwise affected in terms of property loss, loss of business and so forth.

Response Time & Duration

Response time and duration would entirely depend on when an attack occurs, where the executives are when it happens, where the attack is relative to the business interests in question and so forth. The likelihood that it would impact the executives or the company directly are unlikely but possible. The main response would be to get away from or avoid the epicenter of any attack. Fortified and well-developed roads that are not easy to turn into a choke point should be used but the most common roads should also be avoided as they will be the most likely targets. So long as the executive team itself is not impacted or hurt by an impact, time and duration and response should be limited to how long it takes to redirect the executives and the resources involved…which should be nominal in many to most cases.

Response Asset Requirements

When it comes to assets, it would either involve a bunker or an armored car contingent to get the executive away from the affected area or out of the country entirely. It would all depend on who the target was, who was actually hit, the type of attack in question and whether the airport's functionality was impacted at all. The military response from Thailand would also be a factor in what assets need to be leveraged

Response Cost Estimate

The costs involved would depend on the nature of the attack and the response to the same. Costs would involve transportation, lodging and a "safe house" as mentioned before.

Response Political/Cultural Risks in the Long-Term

Unless the company or the executive is the target of an attack (unlikely), there should be little to no political or cultural issues other than staying safe and staying out of the way of the military or police.

Risk Four

Nature of Threat

The next threat to be explained and covered are the social protests and unrest that have been occurring. The prior threat related to this focused on what the government and military would be doing as far as the political strife goes. This threat regards what the people of the country are doing. Indeed, the country of Thailand is under military rule and this could present a security and safety issue for the executives if something were to flare up. It is nasty enough in Thailand that the Constitution has been suspended and martial law is basically the norm at this time. There is also a nationwide curfew in place from 10 pm to 5 am (local Thai time). Some of the protests have been bloody with a couple dozen deaths over the recent years, especially from 2013 to 2014 (Breaking News, 2015).

Severity Potential of Threat

The threat severity would be highest for people that are actively involved in protest areas and engaging in protesting behavior. As such, the overall threat to the executives or the company would be rather low unless the protests are (or start to) occur in areas in which the team will be.

Probability of Occurrence

Extremely likely…but again, that is in general and would not really apply to areas in which our people would be.

Potential Costs in Terms of Life, Property & Response

Little to none as long as the people involved in the company and the executive team stay out of areas with protests and violence.

Response Time & Duration

Unlikely to even be an issue….but medical attention and evasive maneuvers will be rendered as necessary if anyone in the team gets caught up in a skirmish. Since the military has been quite brutal towards the protesters, the odds of violence are not that high…but are certainly not zero.

Response Asset Requirements

Would just need to keep an eye on the news and perhaps work with the POC to make sure that areas with protesters and outbreaks of violence are strongly avoided.

Response Cost Estimate

Just the man-hours it would take to verify the problem spots and plan the proper routes and itinerary.

Response Political/Cultural Risks in the Long-Term

Little to none…the people are mad at the military control…not the exec. There would be an anti-"fat-cat" movement involved, but keeping away from the fracas should prevent that from ensnaring the executives.

Risk Five

Nature of Threat

The next threat would be weather/natural events that are endemic to the area in and around Thailand. One major threat to Thailand would be earthquakes. Of course, all of Southeast Asia is prone to them because of all of the tectonic and volcanic activity that is present. Because earthquakes are a possibility, that also makes tsunamis a possibility (Fredrickson, 2015; Taylor, 2015).

Severity Potential of Threat

The severity level would be massive…if it happens. If there were an earthquake, tsunami (or other weather event like a typhoon, monsoon, etc.), the amount of damage could be massive.