Sino Japanese Foreign Relations in the 21st Century

What does the future hold for relations between China and Japan?
Given their longstanding disputes and track record of going to war over resources, it would be reasonable to suggest that future relations between China and Japan are going to be characterized by a reluctant, pragmatic trade-off between bi-lateral commerce and the need to hammer out their respective differences over foreign policy current issues on which they currently diverge. Although Japan horsewhipped China militarily throughout the early 20th century in its quest for scarce resources to fuel its enormous war machinery, things have changed and China is no longer the second-class nation Japan faced prior to and during World War II. Moreover, because these two nations are both the main Asian economic juggernauts, the stakes are high for Japan and China as well as the rest of the international community. While there are no foreign policy crystal balls that can help predict the nature of the future relations between these two Asian Tigers, it is possible to develop some informed and timely insights concerning these issues by examining recent and current trends. To this end, this paper reviews the literature to provide the background for the current situation between Japan and China, followed by a comparison of relevant key metrics. Finally, based on the findings that emerge from this research, an analysis concerning what the future holds for relations between China and Japan is followed by a summary of the research in the conclusion.
Background
The historical record shows that relations between China and Japan date to at least 1,500 BCE, and these two countries have never really gotten along. In this regard, Brown (2016) notes that, “Japanese and Chinese imperial disdain for each other manifested itself very early on in prickly protocol, with the Chinese dynastic courts always trying to present Japan as a semi-vassal state, and the Japanese returning the contempt in the earliest dynasties” (para. 7). Furthermore, the historical record also makes it clear that Japan has never really been intimidated by its gigantic neighbor in terms of culture, learning, politics or economics and it has long attempted to overcome China’s regional hegemony. For example, Economy (2017) notes that:
As early as 600, Japan subtly began to assert its equality with China. In that year, a Japanese delegation brought a letter to the Sui dynasty's emperor referring to Japan's empress as the ‘son of heaven in the land of the rising sun’ and to her Chinese counterpart as the ‘son of heaven in the land of the setting sun’ --implying that the two stood on equal footing. (p. 142)
By the turn of the 20th century, however, the situation became far more complex as the geopolitical sphere became characterized by the lingering aftereffects of collapsing European colonialism and the concomitant economic and military growth of Japan.
In fact, by July 1937, Japan was desperate for the raw materials it needed for its military, including most especially oil supplies which its navy was burning at the rate of 400 tons an hour as well as coal, iron and other natural resources. The Japanese military leadership exerted an enormous amount of control over foreign affairs at this time, and they turned their eyes to the vast resources available in China’s Manchuria as the solution to their needs. The highly trained and professional military maintained by the Japanese by this time was in stark contrast to the people’s militias that defended various regions of China which were still ruled by local warlords with their own personal armies (Economy, 2017). It is not surprising, therefore, that the Japanese military devastated this and others parts of China until the end of World War II, including the notorious rape of Nanking were Japanese soldiers raped and butchered tens of thousands of Chinese civilians.
Following the end of World War II, however, relations between China and Japan assumed a different quality as both nations attempted to recover from the devastation they experienced during the global conflagration. Over the past half century, relations between the two countries has gravitated towards an amicable but wary quality that is based in large part on increased commercial trade in the form of imports and exports due in large part to the close geographic proximity of these two countries to each other as shown in Figure 1 below.
Figure 1. Map illustrating Japan’s close geographic proximity to China
Source: https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/graphics/maps/ja-map.gif
Comparison of key metrics
In order to formulate an informed view concerning the future of relations between Japan and China, it is important to determine their respective economic and demographic statuses as set forth in Table 1 below.
As can be seen from the data in Table 1 above, China has more than ten times the population but a per capita GDP of just 37.6% compared to Japan but a gross domestic product of nearly five times as large. Likewise, Japan’s total square miles of just over 145 thousands is just 3% of China massive square mileage of more than 3.7 million square miles. Notwithstanding these significant geographic differences, people in Japan can expect to live about 10 years longer than their Chinese counterparts but the low unemployment rates suggest that anyone can get a job of some type in either of these countries if they want one.
Moreover, Japan and China are both major export and import partners, but China wields a nuclear capability that is not shared by Japan, at least not at present. In sum, China is an 800-pound gorilla besides being an Asia Tiger while Japan is hamstrung by its defense-only constitution and its seemingly unbreakable military alliance with the United States. Taken together, these significant differences in population, economic clout, geographic area, and other sociodemographic factors add up to a future that remains unclear at present, especially given the rocky relationship these two former foes have experienced over the past several centuries as discussed further below.
What the future holds for Sino-Japanese relations
Although it is reasonable to suggest that the close economies ties between Japan and China will continue to overweigh any political or ideological differences between these two countries for the foreseeable future, the geopolitical sphere in which they co-exist is replete with threats. Indeed, some international analysts maintain that the current relationship between Japan and China is essentially just a standoff. For instance, Brown (2016) points out that:
In view of their inability to harmoniously exist side by side for the last millennia or so, can we really see ways in which a strong China and a strong Japan manage to exist alongside each other without conflict in the 21st century? If they do achieve this, they will be going against the pattern of their whole history with each other. (para. 5)
Asking for China and Japan to co-exist “harmoniously” may be stretching things assuming the Chinese have not forgotten the living past, but it is reasonable to seek an accord between these two giants that can avoid future military confrontations. In this area in particular, China clearly holds the big stick.
While Japan’s constitution limits its armed forces to defensive operations only and the country remains highly reliant on the United States for military support, China does not have any such constraints to its armed forces and it is increasingly flexing its military might throughout the Asia-Pacific region. In this regard, Khatoon (2017) reports that, “China is showing assertive behavior towards its neighbors. For instance, Senkaku Island dispute with Japan and China Sea territorial disputes involving Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia and Philippines” (p. 53). In addition, China's formal declaration of an Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) umbrella over the East China Sea’s Senkaku/Diaoyou islands means that foreign carriers require prior authorization from Chinese authorities prior to overflying this region (Khatoon, 2017).
Conclusion
Policymakers in the United States and Europe probably desperately want a crystal ball right about now because the future of relations between China and Japan is virtually anyone’s guess. It would only require a minor skirmish over hotspots such as Taiwan or North Korea to ignite a regional war between China and Japan that could easily escalate to global proportions given both countries’ close ties to powerful military allies. More troubling, perhaps, is the manner in which China has increasingly leveraged its growing economic might into military clout in the South China Seas. In the meantime, Japan has been forced to remain on the sidelines watching these events unfold while the United States wrestles with its own internal political chaos. In the final analysis, it is reasonable to conclude that Japan will not be the first one to throw a military stone, but it will probably be the last one to launch a U.S.-provided nuclear missile.
References
Brown, K. (2016, August 31). The most dangerous problem in Asia: China-Japan relations. The Diplomat. Retrieved from https://thediplomat.com/2016/08/the-most-dangerous-problem-in-asia-china-japan-relations/.
Chuck, E. (2016, March 31). Fact sheet: Who has nuclear weapons and how many do they have? NBC News. Retrieved from https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/fact-sheet-who-has-nuclear-weapons-how-many-do-they-n548481.
Economy, E. C. (2017, July/August). History with Chinese characteristics: How China’s imagined past shapes its present. Foreign Affairs, 96(4), 141-145.
Khatoon, S. (2017, January 1). The rise of China and India-Japan strategic partnership. IUP Journal of International Relations, 11(1), 52-55.