What does the future hold for relations between China and Japan? Given their longstanding disputes and track record of going to war over resources, it would be reasonable to suggest that future relations between China and Japan are going to be characterized by a reluctant, pragmatic trade-off between bi-lateral commerce and the need to hammer out their respective differences over foreign policy current issues on which they currently diverge. Although Japan horsewhipped China militarily throughout the early 20th century in its quest for scarce resources to fuel its enormous war machinery, things have changed and China is no longer the second-class nation Japan faced prior to and during World War II. Moreover, because these two nations are both the main Asian economic juggernauts, the stakes are high for Japan and China as well as the rest of the international community. While there are no foreign policy crystal balls that can help predict the nature of the future relations between these two Asian Tigers, it is possible to develop some informed and timely insights concerning these issues by examining recent and current trends. To this end, this paper reviews the literature to provide the background for the current situation between Japan and China, followed by a comparison of relevant key metrics. Finally, based on the findings that emerge from this research, an analysis concerning what the future holds for relations between China and Japan is followed by a summary of the research in the conclusion.

Background

The historical record shows that relations between China and Japan date to at least 1,500 BCE, and these two countries have never really gotten along. In this regard, Brown (2016) notes that, “Japanese and Chinese imperial disdain for each other manifested itself very early on in prickly protocol, with the Chinese dynastic courts always trying to present Japan as a semi-vassal state, and the Japanese returning the contempt in the earliest dynasties” (para. 7). Furthermore, the historical record also makes it clear that Japan has never really been intimidated by its gigantic neighbor in terms of culture, learning, politics or economics and it has long attempted to overcome China’s regional hegemony. For example, Economy (2017) notes that:

As early as 600, Japan subtly began to assert its equality with China. In that year, a Japanese delegation brought a letter to the Sui dynasty's emperor referring...

(p. 142)
By the turn of the 20th century, however, the situation became far more complex as the geopolitical sphere became characterized by the lingering aftereffects of collapsing European colonialism and the concomitant economic and military growth of Japan.

In fact, by July 1937, Japan was desperate for the raw materials it needed for its military, including most especially oil supplies which its navy was burning at the rate of 400 tons an hour as well as coal, iron and other natural resources. The Japanese military leadership exerted an enormous amount of control over foreign affairs at this time, and they turned their eyes to the vast resources available in China’s Manchuria as the solution to their needs. The highly trained and professional military maintained by the Japanese by this time was in stark contrast to the people’s militias that defended various regions of China which were still ruled by local warlords with their own personal armies (Economy, 2017). It is not surprising, therefore, that the Japanese military devastated this and others parts of China until the end of World War II, including the notorious rape of Nanking were Japanese soldiers raped and butchered tens of thousands of Chinese civilians.

Following the end of World War II, however, relations between China and Japan assumed a different quality as both nations attempted to recover from the devastation they experienced during the global conflagration. Over the past half century, relations between the two countries has gravitated towards an amicable but wary quality that is based in large part on increased commercial trade in the form of imports and exports due in large part to the close geographic proximity of these two countries to each other as shown in Figure 1 below.

Figure 1. Map illustrating Japan’s close geographic proximity to China

Source: https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/graphics/maps/ja-map.gif

Comparison of key metrics

In order to formulate an informed view concerning the future of relations between Japan and China, it is important to determine their respective economic and demographic statuses as set forth in…