Strategic estimate and intervention options for Ahurastan in the Caucasus region

ECJ5 Action Officer's GRADE, NAME

APPROVED BY: ____ DATE

STRATEGIC ESTIMATE OF THE CAUCASUS REGION

Ahurastan has a population of 33 million, comprised of 80% Azeri, 9% Kurd, and 11% other, and is 89% Shi'a and 10% Sunni.

Ahurastan was founded in 2019 and the government is a military dictatorship.

The current Ahurastan president is Piruz Dilanchi and the prime minister is General Ali Kerimli.

The country is a terrorist sponsor that supports the South Azeri People's Army (SAPA) and places the country at odds with Azerbaijan. Ahurastan naval vessels have confronted Turkish and Azerbaijani oil exploration vessels in the Caspian Sea but trade with Armenia continues.

The country appears to be strengthening its relationship with Russia which sells arms to the Ahurastan military.

Ahurastan also has a number of nuclear facilities that Iran would like to reacquire.

Current U.S. programs include securing Caspian Sea routes through support of the Azerbaijani navy; establishing a diplomatic outpost, de-escalating the conflict between Iran and Ahurastan by easing sanctions against Iran, and providing support against SAPA.

Because Ahurastan represents a threat to regional and global security, a case may be made to the UN, at which time the Responsibility to Protect (R2P) doctrine may be invoked, and support garnered for a NATO-led airstrike to destroy strategic military sites and infrastructure. This option is regarded as the optimal strategy at present to isolate Ahurastan through collaborative international efforts.

In sum, the R2P intervention has proven efficacy in establishing regime change in Libya and the strategy is viable for application to Ahurastan.

1. BACKGROUND/DISCUSSION

Following independence from Iran, Ahurstan's economy has been totally dependent on natural gas from Turkmenistan and oil imports from Kazakhstan. Ahurastan claims ownership of a share of oil and gas reserves in the Caspian Sea. There is a potential for armed conflict with Iran over these issues. There is also a regional threat to the BTC pipeline and Western interests in the area.

At present, Ahurastan is a terrorist state that has threatened the stability of the democratic nation of Azerbaijan. In addition, Ahurastan has been responsible for creating terror in the Caspian Sea, providing support for the terrorist organization SAPA, and threatening U.S. corporate interests concerning the BTC pipeline. In sum, the Islamic fundamentalism that characterizes Ahurastan today has caused the loss of innocent life in Azerbaijan as well as the former Iranian territories currently occupied by Ahurastan military forces.

The current U.S. objective for Ahurastan is to establish control in Azerbaijan and maintain crucial oversight of Caspian Sea.

3. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

It is possible to develop a case against Ahurastan at the UN at which time the Responsibility to Protect (R2P) doctrine may be invoked, and support garnered for a NATO-led airstrike to eliminate strategic military sites and infrastructure in Ahurastan. Therefore, the option of isolating Ahurastan by cultivating world opinion against it, invoking the R2P Doctrine with UN approval together with a NATO airstrike appear to represent the best opportunity to protect Azerbaijan and the interest of the U.S. And its allies. This alternative will also facilitate regime change in Ahurastan, promotes the concept of the United States as humanitarian aid provider, and protects American interests with military strength. The experiences with diplomatic approaches with Ahurastan have proven ineffective while swift military action has proven effective as shown in Ukraine. Strategic airstrikes can sufficiently destabilize Ahurastan to the point where Azerbaijan's borders are secured and support from the international community will minimize any negative fallout that results from this option.