Strategic Intelligence and North Korea

SWOT Analysis: North Korea

The Intelligence Community had made significant strides against North Korea when it comes to that country's nuclear weapons program. However, that does not mean that everything has been figured out or that there are no other issues that have to be considered. With that in mind, a SWOT analysis can provide more insight into whether the Intelligence Community is doing the right thing, and whether it has enough knowledge to adequately plan for what North Korea might do in the future. Understanding the nuclear weapons program that North Korea currently has, and what kind of program it may still be developing in the future, is vital to making sure that the Intelligence Community is prepared for changes that the country might be making to the power it has in the world (North, 2005). The danger that North Korea presents is real, and should not be underestimated just because the country is relatively quiet about what it is doing with its nuclear program.

Strengths

There are a number of strengths that the Intelligence Community has when it comes to knowledge of North Korea's nuclear program. These include:

Knowledge that the country actually does have a nuclear power program.

An understanding that the nuclear power program is not just about powering the country, but also about weapons.

Insider information based on inspections that have been done of the nuclear power program in that country (Busch, 2004).

The ability to have a dialogue with the leaders of the country in an effort to discuss the nuclear program.

Sanctions and other options that can be used if North Korea does not comply with inspections and information (Myers & Sang-Hun, 2012).

A number of allied countries that will work together to ensure that North Korea is transparent about the information it provides in its nuclear program.

Agreements with a number of countries that have dealings with North Korea, so that many countries will work together to keep all of those countries honest -- and that includes North Korea.

The power of international dealings that can be used in order to keep each country in line when it comes to nuclear power.

Weaknesses

Even though the strengths of the Intelligence Community are important, there are also weaknesses that have to be considered. These include:

A lack of transparency when it comes to what North Korea offers in the way of information on its nuclear program.

The fact that the country keeps to itself for the most part, and is not very open to working with the rest of the world (North, 2005).

A recent change of leadership that has stopped any dealings that could have been created with the past leader (Myers & Sang-Hun, 2012).

An inability to get close to those who work in the nuclear program.

The potential for misleading or deliberately incorrect information to be provided by the country.

A lack of inspectors who have the power to simply force North Korea to provide the requested information.

The understanding that North Korea does not fear sanctions or other directives placed against the country.

An inability to come to an agreement with the country regarding what is actually being done there as it relates to nuclear power (Busch, 2004).

The realization that the leader of the country does not fear or respect other countries and their opinions on nuclear weapons.

The knowledge that North Korea realizes it could get the upper hand relatively quickly with a large nuclear program.

Opportunities

In order for the Intelligence Community to continue to be successful when it comes to knowledge of North Korea's nuclear program, there are opportunities that have to be carefully considered. These opportunities can often change from one time to the next, because North Korea can be very fickle about what it allows or agrees to. Because of that, these opportunities may not always be available. They include:

The ability to potentially provide North Korea with something it wants, that can be traded for the right to examine its nuclear program (Busch, 2004).

Agreements that can be reached between a number of countries, whereby they will all be transparent in their nuclear dealings.

A potential change of leadership, that will make North Korea more receptive to nuclear power discussions.

A chance to show North Korea that it has friends and allies with which it can work on its nuclear program.

The ability to explore better ways to build a strong military, that do not have anything to do with nuclear armament.

The way to use nuclear power for other pursuits, that are not related to anything involving weapons.

The removal of current sanctions or an agreement to withhold potential sanctions, provided the country is more open about its nuclear program.

Negotiations that can allow North Korea to dictate what it would want in order to avoid nuclear program issues, which can then be negotiated.

Threats

The threats to the Intelligence Community are important to be aware of, when considering North Korea's nuclear program. Unfortunately, these threats can be difficult to address. They may not be as transparent as one would hope, which would mean that there could be much larger and more immediate threats than would be expected (Moltz & Mansourov, 2000). That may not be the case, but could certainly be something to consider and address, in order to make sure North Korea was not getting so far ahead in creating a nuclear program that it was becoming a world power without the knowledge of any other countries. That could have devastating consequences. These threats include:

More funding for the nuclear program to continue to grow.

A nuclear program that is being kept under wraps, and that is much larger than would be expected or assumed.

Other countries siding with North Korea, reducing the number of allied countries who are against its nuclear program.

The building of a nuclear program that is designed specifically for targeted war against other countries.

Countries working with North Korea but not stating they are doing so, which could have devastating results.