Technology forecasting and business model assessment

Technology Forecasting and Business Model Assessment

What is technology forecasting?

The entire subject of technology forecasting consists of predictions about the technological capabilities, attributes and parameters that will come up in the future. It is a method of looking through the glass and consists of what may be called intelligent "guesses." (Characteristics, History, and Importance of Technological Forecasting) Since they are only guesses and are not based on any direct scientific reasons, there are often changes in forecasts that are made, as will be seen in an example given at the end of the article. The forecast does not try to explain the methods of doing things, or even trying to determine the methods of doing thing that will lead to profits. On the other hand, the prediction may be that some technological capability will be available at some time in the future, though that does not mean that the society will make use of that possibility or even want it.

How does technology change?

One of the main reasons of technology development is the interests of the government in some technology change. The decisions or requirements of others do not have so much of an effect. One of the decisions of the government was to support the space program and that led to development of a lot of technology in that area including miniaturization of many electronics components. The effects also spread to the garments industry where new materials began to be used and even affected the commercials on television. The identical effect on the opposite side takes place as the government decided not to support SST and that changed the entire technology of air transport in United States. Thus in terms of technological forecasting, it is important to consider the views of the government. (Characteristics, History, and Importance of Technological Forecasting)

Another important point to consider is the limit of change that can take place in a particular technology and the pace at which changes will take place. This has happened in many industries and some grew very fast, till they reached some limits due to natural laws. Examples of these are in the case of aircraft speed, computer memory size and computer access speeds, horsepower made available per liter of internal combustion engines and similar situations. This limit takes place as new technology has to develop on older, existing technology and the developments have to be synergic. At the same time, there are effects of one technology on another and this may result in a very high and sudden development of some technologies. An example of this can be seen in the development of microcomputers which happened due to the development of technologies of electronic computer circuitry, miniaturization of electronic circuits, improvement in computer programming and development of storage of information. Such growths are difficult to be imagined. (Characteristics, History, and Importance of Technological Forecasting)

How are forecasts made?

There will also be a gap between invention and conversion of the invention into usable technology and this time gap has to be taken into account by the individuals concerned with the forecasting person as also the manager who will have to take action for or against the change. Thus one of the major indications of technological changes come from the inventions that take place and these help the forecaster to take them into account for the forecast. One of the major sources for forecasts is the government which has taken up increasingly important roles in the matter. It is not a matter which has started today, but the first sets of technological forecasts were made by the government in the 1937 reports on Technological Trends and National Policy. This also made some predictions for the general public which said that demand were likely to increase for plastics, television, synthetic rubber and a mechanical cotton picker. These inventions were predicted to have high social effects also. (Characteristics, History, and Importance of Technological Forecasting) Over the years the government decided to make its role permanent through an office of Technology Assessment as permitted by the Technology Assessment Act. The aim of this office was to provide congress with all required information for support, management and regulation of applied technologies. This shows the great interest that the government has developed in technological forecasting and methods of forecasting and that has led to greater interest among the general public in the matter.

Business Model for technology development companies

There is no technology that has continued to develop permanently, but some organizations concentrate on development of technology. For these organizations it is important to have a capacity for technology forecasting. A case of the development of solid state technology, which started in the 1950s led to its application in different areas and had great social and economic impacts. Based on this technology has been the development of IC technology and that is now a mature technology and forms the base of the present knowledge-based economy. Similarly, there was the development of biotechnology in the 70s and that has a great impact on improvement of the quality of life for humans and giving birth to a number of new industries. According to scientists and elites of industry the latest development will come from nanotechnology which has taken off only in the 90s and that technology is likely to lead the next set of changes in technology. This seems to be an essential requirement for a sustainable society and is likely to replace both solid state technology and bio-technology from the peak, and the importance is expected to last till 2050. (Meng, 2003)