The Yemen conflict between Saudi and the Houthis

Middle East/ Africa Security Issue

Introduction

The ends, ways and means strategy is a method of understanding what the objective is for a particular issue (ends), how that objective will be achieved (ways) and what resources will be required to make this happen (means). This methodology is commonly applied in military or international relations, where the issues can be complex, as this method simplifies strategy by focusing on the desired ends (Eikmeier, 2007).

Background on the Issue

There are several issues in the Middle East worthy of attention, one of which is the ongoing conflict in Yemen. While Yemen has commonly been engaged in conflict, this issue has become more pressing in recent months. Houthi rebels were engaged in conflict in the region near the Saudi border, drawing Saudi Arabia into the conflict. This became a front in the Saudi-Iran proxy war, as the Houthi rebels are predominantly Shia. Western powers have traditionally backed Saudi Arabia in this conflict (BBC, 2018). In recent months, the conflict appears to have spiralled out of control, and may be contributing to a rift between Saudi Arabia and the UAE. While they have been allies for much of this conflict, each is using the conflict as a means of extending influence and power in the region, but there are longstanding tensions at play in this conflict that have resulted in the lack of control, and the risk of greater regional destabilization (al-Mujahed & Raghavan, 2018). The UAE is backing Sunni rebels, while Saudi is not only fighting the Houthis but also supporting the Hadi government in conflict with the UAE-backed rebels (al-Mujahed & Raghavan, 2018).

Ends

The conflict in Yemen matters because it has drawn in other regional powers. In addition to Saudi, Iran has been drawn in, as part of its ongoing conflict with Saudi Arabia for regional dominance. The United Arab Emirates is reported to be involved, supporting a split of Yemen, using the conflict as a means to advance its power in the region (Al Jazeera, 2018). If the conflict is contained within Yemen, there are human costs, and risk associated with the security vacuum in that country. Should the conflict move beyond Yemen, then the region could be destabilized (BBC, 2018).

Bringing about a peaceful resolution to this conflict should be the end that the US seeks. There is no sweeping victory to be won here – the objective in Yemen should be to contain the risk of regional destabilization. In particular, tensions between Saudi Arabia and the UAE need to be calmed, as both are strategically important allies in the war against terror and counterbalances to Iranian power in the Middle East.

Ways

To this point, the US, UK and France have lent their support to Saudi Arabia in this conflict, providing military equipment and logistical support to the Saudi efforts to combat the Houthi rebels (BBC, 2018). The aim of this support was to defeat the Houthis and restore stability to the northern part of Yemen, which had become destabilized by the conflict. At present, there is question about an extension of that support to more direct military support for the Saudis. The issue is complicated by the fact that the civilian toll of the conflict is increasing, and the Saudis are apparently responsible for much of that civilian death toll via airstrikes.
Defense Secretary James Mattis has argued that US military intervention will bring about a negotiated peace, which in turn will reduce civilian casualties. There are reports that the Saudis and Houthi rebels are in talks to bring about such a negotiated end to the conflict. The threat of direct US intervention may be playing a role in this. Other benefits of extending US support for the Saudis would be to strengthen the relationship with the Saudis, and result in the conflict becoming more intractable. The US has the opportunity to pick a winner in the conflict, if it can empower the Saudis to get the Houthi to a negotiated settlement (RT, 2018).

Increasing military support would also allow the Saudis to have stronger influence in Yemen, in particular where the conflict against the UAE is concerned. If the desired ends are multiple peace deals and a unified Yemen, then the US can influence this process by backing the strongest player in the conflict, the Saudis. US forces would not be involved on the ground, but there might be an opportunity to lend air support, and increase the intelligence and logistical support.

The US will also need to lend diplomatic support, such as helping negotiate peace deals, and publicly supporting a unified Yemen with a legitimate government. If the US can give Saudi the military help it needs to bring the conflict to an end, and in exchange can have the Saudis support the restoration of the Hadi government, then there is opportunity to bring Yemen to this state of peace. The US has to give Saudi something in order to get it to end its conflict with the Hadi government, which means that high-level support will need to be provided. Whatever tensions exist between the UAE and Saudi Arabia, the US cannot allow Yemen to spark those tensions further, which makes it imperative that all conflicts in Yemen are ended as part of this initiative.

Means

The US already maintains a strong military presence in the region. Those resources can and should be deployed in service of this objective, to the extent possible. If another aircraft carrier is required, then that is a decision that the appropriate people within the defense department should make. Inroads in the fight against Daesh may free up some of these military resources.
It is likely that an experienced team of negotiators will need to be made available, preferably ones with Middle East experience, especially with respect to the Saudi-Iran proxy conflict. Reaching a negotiated solution will require considerable skill, so the best people in the State Department will need to be made available for this file. The application of these resources should put the US in a better position to assist Saudi Arabia and the UAE come to a settlement.

Another means that might be worth considering in the long run is to have funds available to help rebuild critical infrastructure in Yemen. The nation is impoverished, underdeveloped, and has longstanding conflicts. Reaching a negotiated peace between the different groups in Yemen today will only help today; the country needs to have a higher level of development in order to prevent similar conflicts from rising in the future. The Saudis and Emiratis should also commit some wealth to improving Yemen\\'s infrastructure, facilitating trade, and diversifying the country\\'s agriculture. Lasting peace needs to be part of the long-range vision for Yemen, as there is limited long-run value to negotiating a peace today without solving some of the bigger problems that make Yemen such a hotspot for Middle East instability.

Conclusions

There is an opportunity today for the US to use its influence, both military and diplomatic, to bring the different sides of the Yemen conflict to negotiated settlements. The end in Yemen is to deliver peace and stability to that country, because the current conflict raises the specter not only of intensifying the Saudi-Iran tensions, but bringing Saudi-UAE tensions to a head. The latter scenario needs to be avoided, as it would result in destabilization of most of the Arabian peninsula and threaten the oil industry. Now is the time for more active US involvement both militarily and diplomatically, to avoid this conflict becoming worse, and more destructive on a regional level.

References

Al Jazeera (2018) Yemen\\'s complicated war just got more complicated. Al Jazeera News. Retrieved March 18, 2018 from https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/01/yemen-complicated-war-complicated-180129114613553.html

Al-Mujahed, A. & Raghavan, S. (2018) Yemen\\'s war is so out of control, allies are turning on one another. Washington Post. Retrieved March 18, 2018 from https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/yemens-war-is-so-out-of-control-that-allies-are-turning-on-one-another/2018/02/03/50d26426-05fe-11e8-aa61-f3391373867e_story.html?utm_term=.f798b99400ac

BBC (2018) Yemen crisis: Who is fighting whom? BBC. Retrieved March 18, 2018 from http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-29319423

Eikmeier, D. (2007) A logical method for center-of-gravity analysis. Military Review. Retrieved March 18, 2018 from http://www.armyupress.army.mil/Portals/7/military-review/Archives/English/MilitaryReview_20071031_art009.pdf

RT (2018). US support for Saudi Arabia\\'s war in Yemen will reduce civilian casualties, Mattis tells Senate. RT.com. Retrieved March 18, 2017 from https://www.rt.com/usa/421553-mattis-us-aid-saudi-yemen/