Health Care: The Next Twelve Months Over

Health Care: The Next Twelve Months

Over the next twelve months, there will be many changes to health care in the United States. The largest and most ambitious goal is to provide the majority of Americans with health insurance (Blendon & Benson, 2010). However, there will be a presidential election and a Supreme Court ruling, which means that 2012 could be the year that determines whether the health care law moves forward or whether it is shut down. It could also go forward in part, after having large pieces of it removed, and it could go forward with some fundamental changes. How the elections go will greatly affect the law - unless, of course, the Supreme Court strikes the law down before the elections arrive. It seems like that the Supreme Court will rule on the individual mandate from a constitutional standpoint, and that could lead to some of the new insurance regulations being thrown out at the same time.

There are several areas that will shape the Supreme Court decision on important issues, such as the small business health insurance tax credit (Peterson & Chaikind, 2010). Over the next few months, there will be a great deal of lobbying in regard to the Supreme Court decision. Millions of dollars will be spent in an effort to shape how the Court feels about the individual mandate and whether it is constitutional. Popularity contests, ideological appeals, and other types of campaigns will all be seen, but it is unlikely that the majority of them will affect the outcome to any real degree. There are already many lawsuits filed by a number of states and directed against the federal government in challenge to the health care bill or parts thereof, but some states are moving forward with the law (Elmendorf, 2010). It is also important to note that the 2010 health care law will not be repealed while Democrats control the White House and the Senate. Still, Republicans will make an effort to shut down legislation and cut off funding for the law. Lawmakers should get ready for a new round of battles over spending on health care.

There are many important players surrounding the health care law issue. House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan discussed entitlements in 2011. In 2012, he may begin to change national policies. Former U.S. Solicitor General Paul Clement, who was originally appointed by George W. Bush, has been in front of the Supreme Court over 50 times - and he is now the lead attorney in the case that seeks to overturn the health care law. If the health care law does continue and is enforced, it is likely that corporations will increase their employees' co-payments, out-of-pocket maximums, and deductibles. In order to see the law upheld (or overturned), five Supreme Court justices must agree on the constitutionality of the individual mandate. It seems likely that the Supreme Court will not uphold the law, but that still remains to be seen. Currently, though, only around 34% of Americans hold a view in favor of the health care reform law.