Threat assessment frameworks and methodologies

Threat Assessment

South America's very old, biggest, most competent, and well- equipped rebellion having Marxist origin is the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia - FARC. The uproar and clashing in the 1950s involving liberal and conservative militias lead to the civil war that demolished Columbia and from here FARC came into existence. The murder of liberal party leader Jorge Eliecer by the representatives of the conservative government ignited the battle between the Liberal and Conservative political parties. The consequent civil wars lead to the loss of over 200,000 Columbians and generated a glut of guerrilla groups. One of those groups, lead by Manuel Marulanda, split from the Liberals in 1966 and developed into the Marxist-oriented FARC. (FARC History)

Identify the group by name and country in which based. If there is no one country, state the countries in which the group is operative, or the region.

a. Stated goals and objectives of the group.

Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, with a foundation on Marxist-Socialist ideology, is involved in frightening Columbia for sometime. (Canham, 2002) The FARC declared its fresh policy, the 'Law 002' which ordered that anybody with possessions of $1 million should shell out 'war taxes' otherwise they would be abducted. (Colombia's Civil War: Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC))

1. Political goals.

The political aim is to set up a communist-agrarian state after toppling the government and ruling class. (Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia: www.ict.org.il) In contrast to ELN, the FARC did not get its straight motivation from the Cuban revolutionary Fidel Castro or the Soviet Union. On the other hand, the FARC's philosophy encompassed extremely nationalist and anti-capitalist style entrenched in early progressive philosophy. (Colombia's Civil War: Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC))

ii. Religious goals, if any.

The FARC seems to be against any religious manifestation because of their action of targeting religious leaders. (Colombia's Civil War: Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC))

iii. How do these goals relate to the United States?

From the beginning, FARC has been in opposition to U.S. government. (Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia: www.ict.org.il) FARC believes that the government is sold off to the United States intention of having a colonial rule. (Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC): www.military.com/Resources/)

II. History of the group, including significant terrorist events attributed to it.

In March 1999, the FARC killed three U.S. Indian rights supporters on Venezuelan region after it abducting them in Colombia. (Terrorist Group Profiles. 2003) In middle of 2001, the FARC's brutal operations consisted of the abduction and assassination of Consuelo Araujonoguera, a well-known earlier minister of culture, and the wife of Attorney-General Edgardo Maya. Moreover, the Guerillas abducted Alan Jara, earlier governor, when he was traveling in a United Nations vehicle and three German aid workers. In 2002, the FARC took control of a Colombian aircraft and captured passenger Sen. Jorge Gechem Turbay, who was the fifth congressmen the FARC had abducted since June 2001, as its captive. The FARC aggression got reformed after the murder of a leading UP presidential candidate due to the belief of many UP party members that military ploys alone can accomplish their political power. (Colombia's Civil War: Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC)) In 2003, the FARC carried out various sophisticated radical assaults, two such assaults are: a February car-bombing of a Bogota nightclub that extinguished more than 30 persons and injured more than 160, and a November grenade attack in Bogota's restaurant district that hurt three Americans. (Terrorist Group Profiles, 2003)

a. Patterns and trends

In February 2003, when an aircraft crashed in Florencia, the FARC murdered one American and a Colombian from the plane and detained three U.S. contractors and kept on holding them. Though the group mainly functions in Colombia, it also functions in nearby Brazil, Venezuela, Panama, and Ecuador for dealing with extortion, kidnapping, weapons sourcing, logistics, and R& R. (Terrorist Group Profiles. 2003) For majority of paid abduction, in Colombia, FARC is in charge; the group chiefly attacks rich landowners, foreign travelers, and famous international and domestic officials. (FARC, ELN, AUC) For the past 15 years, almost 300, 000 Colombians have lost their life in the bloodshed, majority of who are guiltless civilians. Starting from 1984, a minimum of 3,000 UP members that consists of presidential candidates, mayors and legislators, were killed or vanished. With regard to noncombatant civilians, in excess of 35,000 have been killed or vanished since 1987. Number of lives lost due to battles was stated as one thousand in 1999, and FARC continues to enhance its assaults in current years. (Conflict in Colombia) Before Colombia's May 2002 presidential election, FARC increased its radical assaults on infrastructure in cities. (FARC, ELN, AUC)

b. Successes and failures, including signature or defining events.

The FARC vowed to upset the economy and initiate a series of killings over government followers. (Colombia's Civil War: Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC))

III. Ideological and material support

a. Other organizations in support of, or affiliated with, this group.

FARC has joined hands with The National Liberation Army (ELN), a Marxist cluster that draws its earnings through abductions and forced. Of late, the ELN is making attempts to solicit peace talks with the government. In Colombia, there exist other Marxist clusters namely the Popular Liberation Army (EPL), the April 19 Movement (M-19), Worker's Self-Defense (ADO), and the Worker's Revolutionary Party (PRT). FARC's business involves exchange of drugs for arms with Brazilian, Mexican, Russian and Paraguayan criminal set ups. (Groups Connected with FARC)

b. Local/domestic support. (Is there popular support?)

In late 1990s, Colombians carried out protests and demonstrations to insist the government to restart peace talks with the FARC as there was an increasing worry about the FARC's military ability. As the public became more and more annoyed with the unproductive peace talks, guerrilla fighters performed a sequence of dreadful and atrocious assaults. (Colombia's Civil War: Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC))

c. State sponsors (e.g., Iran, Syria, etc.)

A collection of armaments used by FARC in its military actions include AK-47 assault rifles, M60 machine guns, M16 rifles, RPG-7 rocket-propelled grenades, M79 grenade launchers, and land mines. It supposedly got hold of weapons from Cuba and from crook elements of the Venezuelan army. It also supposedly buys weapons from international criminal organizations in Brazil and Mexico. (Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC): www.military.com/Resources) Some medical care and advice is offered by Cuba. A court case is presently happening in Bogota to check whether three members of the Irish Republican Army, detained in Colombia in 2001 upon quitting the FARC-controlled demilitarized zone, supplies sophisticated explosives education to the FARC. The FARC and the Colombian National Liberation Army (ELN) frequently use the border area for cross border invasions and makes use of the Venezuelan territory near the border as a refuge. (Terrorist Group Profiles, 2003)

d. Spiritual or religious support.

Could not find any information.

e. Umbrella or cover organization, if any.

As per Colombian intelligence agencies, the FARC was implementing the techniques studied from a yet another terrorist cluster, namely, the Irish Republican Army. (One year after Sept. 11, U.S. And Colombia face parallel challenges)