The Threat of Terrorism and the Travel Ban

Will the current travel ban by the U.S president help avert the threat of terrorism in USA?
Section I: Introduction (1 page)
a) Explain the intelligence issue
The US president, On January 27th 2017, issued an executive order banning the admission of refugees into the US. He further put a temporary ban on people travelling to the US from seven countries of a Muslim majority1. The move was received with mixed reactions even having some people challenge the order in court. The order was temporarily halted when a judge from Seattle suspended its implementation nationwide. The move allowed banned visitors to get admission into the US pending an appeal hearing. Trump did this as an honor to a campaign pledge he had issued1.
Order content
The order suspended refugee admission for a period of 120 days. Refugees from Syria were also banned indefinitely. People arriving from these seven countries with a Muslim Majority were also subjected to a visa suspension for 90 days: Yemen, Syria, Iraq, Sudan, Iran, Somali and Libya1. Visa categories such as the UN and diplomatic visas were not to be included in the ban. In that order also there was a capping on the number of refugees who can be admitted into the US. The cap was set at 50,000 from the previous 110,000 set by President Obama1. Priority was to be accorded to the religious minority groups subjected to persecution. Trump singled out Syrian Christians in an interview he gave. Any exceptions to this order were to be done based on the unique circumstance each case presented.
The issue at hand is that the threat of terrorism has continued to grow and there are fears that external aggression could be avenue terrorist groups are keen to exploit. Many countries are contending with the challenge of diffusing terrorist initiatives but it has proven to be a challenge. Friendly countries have turned to intelligence sharing, strict border control, monitoring online activity, and war against ISIS etc. as a way of minimizing the risk of terror. The US president in his wisdom has chosen a ban on refugees and some Muslim majority countries hoping that somehow this will minimize the risk of terror.
b). State your research question (what you are attempting to answer)
Research Question: Will the current travel ban by the U.S president help avert the threat of terrorism in USA?
The objective of this research is to assess the credibility of this move by the U.S president. Is it really an informed move? Will it in any significant way help minimize terrorism in the U.S? In this research the fundamental questions about the relevance, significance, impact and outcome of the executive order must be answered. To help answer the research question it will be important to understand the significance of the threat. In what way are the refugees and the foreigners from the given countries a threat to the security of USA and her people? What does the history of terrorist activities in the US tell us?
The objective here is to try and correlate the terror activities and the significance of having the travel ban as a way of alleviating any such attacks on American people. Through a detailed review of the impact external aggression could have on American people and a review of the recent trends on terror activities it will be substantially possible to determine whether target countries in the travel ban will have any significant impact in helping minimize the threat of terror. It is important to remember that success in this case can only be adduced through trends analysis.
c) Give a hypothesis of your answer to the research question
Hypothesis:
1. The recent trends on terrorism have revealed a growing external aggression against western countries therefore calling for heightened border security.
2. Most terrorist attacks in the USA are actually executed by American citizens and any travel bans will not do much in averting the threat of terrorism.
Section II:
Content Analysis Technique: This technique is a replicable and systematic way of compressing data into fewer categories of content using definite coding procedures3. Content analysis makes it possible to make inferences. The deduced information could be corroborated with some other information applying some other techniques of information gathering. This technique allows researchers a chance to examine loads of data a lot easier and in a systematic manner3. Content analysis as some researchers would put it makes it possible to draw inferences using symbolic data which otherwise would have been very costly, presumptive and impossible if other techniques were used3. The technique further allows researchers to describe and discover patterns from society, institutions, groups and individuals4. While content analysis is not limited to text data, so as to permit replication, content analysis technique is only applicable to durable data3.
Comparative Analysis technique: This is an itemized comparison between more than one comparable product, processes, alternatives, data sets, systems, and qualifications etc. often used in finance to evaluate relationship between financial variables for more than one reporting period6. In business comparative analysis is used to identify operating results and competitive positions over a certain period of time. In security comparative analysis between countries can be performed with an objective of identifying trends and borrowing from successful counter terrorism mechanisms applied elsewhere.
Comparison and science are not unrelated. Comparative research has been a significant pillar in shaping scientific disciplines in history. In social science, however, the use of comparative methods as a methodology or a science subfield has not been agreed upon6.
Rational Choice Theory: This theory is useful in explaining the social phenomena through assuming a rational choice at the level of the actor. In order to achieve its purpose, this theory makes an assumption of two methods i.e. actor’s choice and the transition (macro-micro-macro) 8. The theory in itself is a principle in economics stating that people will always make logical and prudent decisions. The decisions made come with benefits considering the choices that they have. The choices made are also in the best interest of the decision maker. Most academic theories and assumptions are premised on this theory7.
The assumption in this theory is that people will always try to maximize the benefit from any situation. This means that they also will attempt to keep losses at their minimum. The idea behind the theory is that people premise their decisions on rationality assessment, they use rational thinking in making a choice and their objective is to maximize profit or pleasure from a situation. According to the theory all the complicated social situations are instigated by human actions7. For this reason, an economist who intends to put meaning to societal change or social institutions’ actions must examine the rationality of the decisions made by individuals who comprise the whole7.
b) Examine the strengths and weaknesses of each technique for your particular topic
Each of these techniques provides a unique way of identifying a problem and fixing it. In this particular instance, however, some techniques may not be as helpful.
Strengths of content Analysis technique
The method is understandable and inexpensive to implement. The analysis data is not presumptive and requires no personal contact in the process. An analysis of the trends in terror activity across America, Europe and other parts of the world will only call for data collection and an analysis of the trends. There will be no interaction with individuals.
Content analysis is a wealth of information that makes it possible to examine politics, media and people. There are many competing factors that might explain terrorism anywhere. With an examination of the political climate, the media and the people it will be possible to contextualize the events around a terrorist attack and therefore explain the genesis of such attacks.
With content analysis it is easier to adduce reliable information and get straightforward information. Content analysis is easily replicable. Content analysis material is easily available for examination. Through online sources it will be possible to study terrorist trends around the world and even study the possible causes of such terror.
Limitations of content analysis technique
This method is purely descriptive. It can only describe what is already existent. It cannot reveal what lies within the patterns observed.
This method is also limited to the available materials. The observed trends through media sources may lack in accuracy and reliability. It is for instance true that catastrophes are widely covered compared to the less dramatic but equally important events.
Advantages of comparative analysis
The method is quick, easily accessible and cheap. Information about terrorism can be deduced easily.
Comparative analysis is used to come up with correlations between the variables of study. For the purpose of this research comparative analysis can be used to study the relationship between refugees, foreigners from the Muslim countries included in the travel ban and terrorism. By try to ascertain the origin of people executing terror activities and where they come from it will be easy to correlate crimes of terror with particular interest groups.
Disadvantages of comparative analysis
Operationalization of variables is not easy. It might not be as easy to identified variables and compare them in this case.
Comparative analysis works best with official statistics. Interpretivists often argue that official statistics are often socially constructed and hence not as reliable.
Advantages of Rational Choice Theory
This approach is based on scientific data therefore making decision making an informed choice. This reduces chances of error, guesswork, distortion, or subjectivity. These informed choices promote consistency and well guided decisions hence reducing uncertainty and risk related to decision making.
The method also drives consistency, logic and discipline in decision making. The approach necessitates proper problem definition, identification of assessment and decision making criteria, identifying available alternatives, assessing the consequences or every alternate decision and using a criteria to rate each choice. The sequence applied allows decision makers to make an optimal choice.
In the research question rational choice theory allows the researcher to carefully examine the terrorism situation currently impacting the world. With a careful examination of the terror trends in specific areas governments have made choices they think are rationally the best to avert terror. The intelligence community has come up with measures aimed at minimizing the risk of terror. Some of these methods have worked while others are still on their trial stage. Through rational choice it will be possible to conclude whether, in light of prevailing global terrorism trends, Trump made an informed and rational choice or not.
Disadvantages of Rational Choice Theory
The method calls for careful consideration and data deliberation. It will take time hence making it inappropriate where quick decisions must be made. Delayed decision making especially in the face of terror may dilute the apparent benefits that would otherwise have been accrued were choices made a little faster. This model is therefore more beneficial for long term choices and while making policy decisions and not where instant choices and operational decisions must be made.
d) Select the one technique you think would be most useful in your analysis (Content Analysis, Comparative Analysis, or Rational Choice Theory)
Content analysis technique
Section III: Analyze your issue using the technique you deemed best suited to your question (choose only one) (2 -3 pages)
It will be important to revisit terror attacks in the past such as the 9/11 attack and the more recent attacks such as the Paris Attack, Belgium attack and the UK attacks. It is important to remember that recent attacks and find their relationship with terror networks from the banned countries. Recent terror activities such as: The 15th September, 2017 tube terror in London where a bomb exploded on a subway causing flash burns and terror2, the Manchester attack outside a concert arena that left 22 people dead and many more injured by what is suspected to be a lone suicide bomber believed to have terror network connections, the attack on Paris’ Champs Elysees where an attacker fired at police officers in a van and at bystanders on a sidewalk before he got shot dead by police officers etc2.
Most of the terrorist attacks carried out in recent times have a trending connotation to them. It has been evidently clear that terror groups have resulted to use of crude means such as running trucks and cars into public places in order to maximize fatalities. This information can be derived from analyzing the trends in Paris, Germany and Belgium. Similarly terrorists appear to be carrying out these attacks with minimal corroboration. Often recent attacks have been executed by lone terrorists albeit their connection with terror groups. It appears that radicalized individuals from any location have the motivation to carry out attacks. This makes it a bit complicated to assume that terrorists would have an organized and prepped manner of executing attacks. The attacks appear to be more sporadic and unrehearsed2. These facts can be deduced through content analysis. A careful examination of the recent terror trends will reveal this.
Through content analysis material it is evident that radicalization is happening from remote locations either through internet or telephone communication. Either way terrorists appear to have an advanced way of communicating their terrorism agenda far and wide. This might explain why a young man, from Orlando, born and raised in America would one day go into an LGBT bar and execute terror on unsuspecting people killing at least 50 of them9. Through content analysis it is possible to deduce that in such cases a travel ban alone is not capable of stopping terror. Much more needs to be done in de-radicalizing people. Perhaps monitoring the internet more, educating communities on identifying unusual behavior and raising children free of radicalized ideologies might work.
Section IV: Conclusion (1 paragraph)
The threat of terrorism can never be solved by simply enforcing travel bans. It is a proven fact that in America most terror activities are performed by Americans themselves. Often most of the terrorists have links to terror networks. It might help enforcing the travel bans but that alone will not do the magic. Much more needs to be done. Governments have to unite forces in de-radicalizing the youth. More stringent internet security measures must be put in place with an objective of limiting or alleviating the use of internet to advance terrorist ideologies. All terrorists have to do nowadays is to radicalize young men from all over the world and plant evil ideas into their heads. This is the reason it is no longer hard for a young man to buy a semi-automatic firearm and stomp a joint, school or an assembly of people with an objective of killing.




Section V
Bibliography
1. BBC News, “Trump's executive order: Who does travel ban affect?” ,2017, http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-38781302 (Accessed December 31, 2017)
2. Singman, Brooke, “Timeline of recent terror attacks against the West” Fox News, 2017, http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/11/01/timeline-recent-terror-attacks-against-west.html (Accessed December 31, 2017)
3. Stemler, Steve. An Introduction to Content Analysis. College Park, MD: ERIC Clearinghouse on Assessment and Evaluation, 2001. http://purl.access.gpo.gov/GPO/LPS26359 (Accessed December 31, 2017)
4. James. W. Drisko, and T. Maschi, Content Analysis (Oxford University Press), 2015; http://www.oxfordscholarship.com/view/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780190215491.001.0001/acprof-9780190215491-chapter-2), pp. 21–56 (Accessed December 31, 2017)
5. Walcott-Hackshaw, Elizabeth. 2013. "Comparative Analysis". Methods in Caribbean Research: Literature, Discourse, Culture. 162-172.
6. P. Lor, Methodology in comparative studies. International and Comparative Librarianship, 1–21 (2011). https://pjlor.files.wordpress.com/2010/06/chapter-4-draft-2011-04-20.pdf (Accessed December 31, 2017)
7. Shapiro, Ian. Rational choice theory. 2016. http://methods.sagepub.com/video/ian-shapiro-defines-rational-choice-theory (Accessed December 31, 2017)
8. Sato, Yoshimichi. “Rational Choice Theory.” Sociopedia.Isa, 2013.
9. Lussenhop, Jessica. BBC News “Orlando shooting: Latest attack on LGBT community”, 2016. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-36492127 (Accessed December 31, 2017)