Mobilisation crisis and war

¶ … Mobilisation, Crisis and War

The various theories of international relations have been developing as a reaction to significant advancement in war strategies, power struggles or scarcity of resources. As the world has diversified its means of conflict and resolution over the centuries, so have theories of international relations changed. To have a generally accepted theory on war would mean to bring to the same table all theories and mix them in a manner that would create such a theory. There are various types of theories referring to war and all offer valuable tools for analyzing a conflict: be them Marxist theories, behavioral, evolutionary, rationalist or realist theories. One of the key theorist for example, Kenneth Waltz in his famous "Man, the State, and War" book. He went into criticizing the classical realism theories of international relations and war and pointed out that the main cause of war is not human nature and the quest for domination but more likely anarchical systemic pressures that states are subject of in the face of the international system. (Waltz, 2001)

As Jacoby suggests, behavioral types of analysis are as important in determining the evolution of a war, a crisis or a conflict. Crisis situations in international relations are often escalated and extended in time and space not only by individual decisions and perceptions but also when the immediate conflict becomes of interest to other parties that were not initially in the crisis situations. Also, other behavioral theories that Jacoby presents relate to perceptions and, most of all, misperceptions. Crises are not necessarily based on valid information or existent events as these might be fabricated or imagined. Jacoby introduces the concept of incompatible goals form the beginning of his book where he states that "realistic conflicts are based on past occurrences that have led to the perception of incompatible goals" (Jacoby, 2008, p.19). These goals, taken in the framework of a realistic conflict that has as causes real threats, are usually opposite to each other. Unrealistic conflicts, that appear as a results of misperceptions in the decision making chain can also serve to reach one of the goals either by manipulating the other party into believing something else about a certain situation or by taking advantage of an accidental misperception. One of the most famous crises that was based on misinterpretation and a zero-sum game was the 1960's Cuban Missile Crisis when misperceptions or fake induced information could have led from a crisis to a conflict and a war.

Conflict in the international arena is often lead by perceptions and power politics games that often are not based on realistic evidence. Conflict is nonetheless a measurable phenomena as many conflicts are also based on other issues than misperceptions, power needs or behavioral changes in a country's leadership. These are different economic interests over material goods, like oil or gas, positional goods like political influence or territorial.