Truth in Sentencing Efficacy Truth in Sentencing

Truth in Sentencing Efficacy

Truth in Sentencing Research Proposal

Researchers who study the economics of crime are interested in whether specific anti-crime legislation or initiatives can increase the 'cost' of committing criminal acts, thereby reducing crime rates (reviewed by Ross, 2012). The basic premise is that most criminals will use a rational process when deciding when and where to offend and that effective anti-crime efforts will displace criminal activity. For example, implementing Lo-Jack tracking in some states in Mexico caused a shift in car theft to neighboring states lacking Lo-Jack tracking services. In the U.S., the implementation of a 'three-strikes' law in California shifted the criminal activity of offenders with one or two offenses already on record to neighboring states. By comparison, increasing the number of police officers patrolling the streets had little impact on the geographic distribution of criminal activity.

Amanda Ross (2012) examined the impact of truth-in-sentencing (TIS) laws on the geographic distribution of criminal activity within the United States. TIS laws generally minimize or eliminate probation and other considerations that effectively reduce the amount of time an offender spends in prison. The goal is to make sentencing predictable, for both criminals and the public, thereby putting criminals on notice that a full jail or prison sentence awaits them if they commit another crime. When Ross looked at crime distributions after TIS laws were enacted by state legislatures throughout the 1990s, she found that TIS laws had shifted the geographic distribution of crime away from TIS states.

Ross's (2012) research was based on 59 urban municipalities that crossed state lines, thereby eliminating many potential confounding factors. Overall, the municipality located in the TIS state experienced an average crime reduction of 8.7% and the neighboring non-TIS municipality experienced an 8.6% increase in crime. When both states enacted a TIS law then both municipalities experienced an average crime reduction of 14.9%. Rather than simply rest on these results, Ross validated these finding by showing an inverse relationship between crime rates and police expenditures locally.

The findings of Ross suggest that TIS laws represent a cost-effective means for reducing criminal activity, especially when both states enact TIS laws. What Ross ignores is whether TIS laws also increased spending on state corrections due to a geographic shift in criminal activity and longer sentences (reviewed by Ortega, 2011). For this reason, I propose to examine whether there was a corresponding increase in prison populations and spending in TIS states and neighboring non-TIS states.

Merely shifting criminal activity geographically does nothing to reduce crime except locally and if this is the effect of TIS laws then the costs of crime control would be both exported to neighboring states and shifted to corrections because of longer sentences. The proposed study would examine the data generated by Ross (2012) and compare it to correctional budgets locally and at the state level. Prison population counts will also be examined for the same purpose, since correctional expenditures can be influenced by the adoption of private prisons and other cost-saving measures.

The first phase will take about three months and will involve requesting access to Ross's (2012) raw data, followed by its analysis. If the data cannot be transmitted over the internet or shipped in a package, travel to Morgantown, West Virginia may be required. The second phase of the research project will involve collecting correctional budget and population data from the 59 municipalities used in Ross's study and all corresponding states. This is expected to take another three to six months to complete, since the needed data will encompass the 1990s and some correctional budgets and prisoner counts may not be public record. The final phase of the project will involve data analysis and preparation of a manuscript for peer-reviewed publication.