Weapons proliferation: causes, consequences, and international control

Weapons Proliferation, simply defined, is the rapid increase or spread of weapons in the context of global security. If we are to measure the weapons capabilities of the world, the United States retains the lion's share: in 2002 the Economist estimated that American military spending would exceed 379 billion in 2003 (Economist, 6/18/2002.) For comparison's sake, Russia, the world's second largest nuclear power, had a total GDP of merely 346.6 billion in 2002 (Economist, 7/22/2003.) However, the "balance of terror" that underscored the cold war era was in many ways much safer than the current situation. Whereas 'weapons proliferation' once referred to the number of weapons in existence, it has taken on a new meaning; it now is usually meant to reflect the number of political entities capable of using weapons of mass destruction. The number of such countries has increased beyond UN Security Council permanent members to include India, Pakistan, Israel and perhaps most notably North Korea.

Countries such as North Korea are regarded as what are known as 'rogue states:' states that fail to sign or comply with the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and the Chemical Weapons Convention. Israel is also not a signatory to these conventions, an anomaly that is regarded by most of the Muslim world as being an example of preferential treatment. India and Pakistan haven't signed the treaty. North Korea has never played by the rules. Weapons of Mass Destruction are particularly dangerous in the hands of a rogue state, because such states will sacrifice the interests of their civilians in order to maintain a large military. According to the North Korean press, its attempt to develop nuclear weapons will allow it to reduce the army of 1.1 million it has stationed at the border with South Korea. North Korea claims to be in possession of two nuclear weapons, and has recently developed launch capabilities capable of putting nuclear warheads in Japan. Perhaps more frightening is the skill with which North Korea executes intelligence operations. In 1983, North Korea sent three top agents to Burma to assassinate the President of South Korea as he and his cabinet visited a shrine. They detonated a bomb that killed 18 South Korean officials; the President survived. Given the volume of trade between the United States and the Pacific, North Korea could easily detonate a nuclear bomb in any American city along the west coast.

Perhaps one of the largest problems with North Korea's weapons capability is that it is infectious. Rogue states are usually very poor, and will export weapons and weapons technology to other countries that do not share the interests of the United States. Many hope that a wider acceptance of Non-Proliferation agreements would help to curtail this. The failure of such agreements has been a matter of concern: North Korea currently exports missiles to Pakistan, Iran, Libya, Syria, and Yemen. Recently, a Spanish warship stopped a North Korean vessel carrying a hidden cargo of missiles bound for Yemen. However, as the North Korean ship was not bound by any international law preventing the exportation of weapons, it was allowed to continue on to Yemen.

Iraq is a suitable example of how difficult it is to curtail weapons production, even in states that the United Nations has provided sanctions against. The United States government's decision to invade Iraq did not receive the United Nations' endorsement, and provoked criticism among most of the Muslim countries and in France, Germany and Russia. When no Weapons of Mass Destruction were found, the United States was portrayed as a warmonger by many of her former friends in Europe and provoked demonstrations both domestically and in other countries whose governments had officially sanctioned the war in Iraq, such as Poland and the Baltic republics. The BBC in the United Kingdom alleged that insiders had stated that weapons inspectors had 'sexed up' reports of Iraq's weapons capabilities. The mysterious death of one of the weapons inspectors, David Kelley, provoked a formal inquiry into the scandal by Lord Hutton, which has the potential to undermine Britain's current administration and its relationship with the United States. Popular opinion of the United States in foreign countries is lower than it has been for many years. Further attempts to mitigate the trade of nuclear weapons through armed intervention could completely isolate the United States from its former allies.

Perhaps more disturbing than the prospect of rogue states getting weapons technology is that of terrorist groups obtaining them. This is a realistic threat, as weapons grade plutonium has been found in Frankfurt, Germany's airport and other places. The source of weapons for such groups is thought to be Russia. Due to agreements following the breakup of the Soviet Union, Russia remains the only country in the former Soviet Union to maintain a large nuclear arsenal. Russian military service is compulsory, and its soldiers and officers are among the most corrupt in Europe.