Terrorism research methodologies and analytical approaches in forecasting

¶ … tilted "Terrorism and the Shape of Things to Come. Terrorism and Political Violence." (Weinberg & EUBank, 1999), and the research paper titled "Forecasting Terrorism: Indicators and Proven Analytic Techniques" (Khalsa, 2004). Weinberg at al (1999) investigates the factors leading to political terrorism. The authors evaluate the Huntington's hypothesis on the emergence of political terrorism and compare whether the violence activities of terrorists are more inter-civilizational than the Cold war conflict. On the other hand, Khalsa, (2004) uses forecasting methodology to identify 68 indicators of terrorisms and employ the proven analytical technique to arrive at good analysis.

Methodology Adopted

Weinberg at al (1999) use the quantitative method to collect data from several sources and the data are collected on several terrorists event between 1968 and 1990. To enhance the quality of the data collected, the authors collected data from the ITERATE II and ITERATE III data sets. Moreover, the author collected data from Department of Justice on pattern of global terrorisms.

Khalsa, (2004) in his own case uses the qualitative method for data collection. In his methodological approach, the authors believe that both structured technique and the intuition could be used for the systematic process in investigating the phenomenon.

Assumption

Weinberg at al (1999) research focuses on what the terrorists cause and collects data to investigate the international terrorism events. The authors assume that the terrorists are not to formulate violence in the international political arena; however, the terrorism is a form of important international political trends. Khalsa, (2004) in his own case presents assumption that "a systematic process is the most effective way to facilitate good analysis and doing something systematically is better than prediction method" (P 1). To validate his assumption, the author carries out the investigation in phases and in systematic methods.

Benefits

Weinberg at al (1999) employ quantitative method in the methodological approach and the author derive several benefits from the methodology adopted. First the authors were able to form the large database from the data collected because 5278 data were collected and data were coded for data transformation in order to enhance statistical data analysis. Moreover, the methodology adopted assists in presenting the information in tabular and graphical forms which enhance the visual presentation of the data collected. For example, Weinberg at al (1999) presented the terrorist events between 1968 and 1997 in the tabular form and the data collected have been used to compare terrorist acts before the cold war and after the cold war. The table also presents the variables in ratios. The method assists in communicating the results efficiently to readers under severe time-shortage, with information overloaded.

Other benefit from the methodology used is that it allows the authors to manipulate data in a constructive way thereby be able to compare data, combining figures as well as examining the rate of changes in an effective and efficient method. The method allows the authors to test the data with much greater degree of precision. With the methodology adopted, the researchers are able to process the relevant data in a systematic method thereby producing extrapolations trends and other forecasts, which assist the researcher to achieve generalizability, objectivity and reliability in the data collected.

On the other hand, Khalsa, (2004) derive many benefits from the qualitative method adopted. First, the author has been able to get better understanding of the terrorist act through the systematic investigation. The strategy assists the author to access a good amount of valuable information which assists in providing a better understanding to the phenomena.

Conclusion

The research evaluates the challenges, assumptions and expected benefits in the methodologies in the two research papers titled "Terrorism and the Shape of Things to Come. Terrorism and Political Violence" and "Forecasting Terrorism: Indicators and Proven Analytic Techniques." The two papers use different methodological approach in their approaches. While Weinberg at al (1999) use quantitative method, Khalsa, (2004) uses qualitative method it his investigation. The benefit derive from using quantitative method is that it is an effective method to deliver precise research findings. However, the methodology does not allow the author to immense in the phenomena. On the other hand, qualitative method allows the author access large information for the research. However, the methodological approach is time consuming.