boko haram and diffusion of innovation

Diffusion of innovation theory can be applied to Boko Haram both by reviewing causal factors in the choice to disrupt public infrastructure and also applied to the Nigerian government's counterterrorism responses. However, the Nigerian government has yet to develop a cohesive enough counterterrorism policy to render empirical research worthwhile and it could be more sensible to concentrate on applying diffusion of innovation to Boko Haram in order to better predict and therefore mitigate the spread of the group's ideas and squelch its ability to successfully carry out terrorist attacks, or to emphasize the ways Boko Haram's activities have disrupted the Nigerian economy.

The methodology used for this study will be quantitative and quasi-experimental. A regression discontinuity design or a propensity score matching method are both quasi-experimental design methods that can be used for this research because the research design may require the use of retrospective data related to the Nigerian economy (White & Sabarwal, 2014). A quasi-experimental design can also be used to examine the diffusion of information, ideology, technology, and terrorist techniques throughout the region and within radical Islam. It is also possible to examine the causal effects of radical insurgency on Boko Haram as a control group versus emerging terrorist groups in other countries, or alternatively to examine the differential effects of radical insurgency on various communities in Northern Nigeria. A quantitative, quasi-experimental design is the logical method to answer the research question related to causes and effects of Boko Haram in order to better inform public policy, which can itself be driven by diffusion of innovation process like those described by Boushey (2012).

Research questions include those related to the "breakdown of the social contract," leading to the patterns of behavior evident in terrorist organizations (Osumah, 2013, p. 536). With a lack of cogent counterterrorism policy in Nigeria, there are few mechanisms whereby Boko Haram can be effectively stopped or a means to stop the spreading of radicalism. By applying diffusion of innovation theory in a quantitative study, it may be possible to influence Nigerian policy with the ultimate goal of stopping Boko Haram. Boushey (2012) shows how counterterrorism policy follows a diffusion of innovation pattern known as punctuated equilibrium, which aligns with this specific research question related to Nigerian domestic policy, particularly with regards to economic diversification, infrastructure improvements, and expansion of employment and other opportunities. We have already questioned whether Nigeria can better diversify its economy to render Boko Haram irrelevant, and encourage the evolution of economic sectors other than oil.

Second, we can apply diffusion of innovation theory to the second research question related to deprivation theory. Diffusion of innovation theory can be used to highlight patterns of acceptance of radicalism in specific communities to answer the question of whether there is a threshold of unemployment rates, income rates, or GINI index points that accurately predicts the entrenchment of Boko Haram. A quantitative study provides numerical data that is useful when crafting related public policy, which should be based on evidence rather than on emotional responses to the terrorist attacks.

The third research question is related to the root causes of Boko Haram. Diffusion of innovation theory can show how other terrorist organizations both in Western Africa but also in the Middle East and other parts of the Islamic world have permeated the ideologies of Northern Nigerians. Gilli & Gilli (2014) show how diffusion of innovation is clearly linked to the types of tactics used by terrorist groups, and a quantitative study can help the Nigerian government to predict and therefore prevent attacks. Considering negotiation is off the table as far as a counterterrorism policy is concerned, the Nigerian government can instead learn from diffusion of innovation theory.

Data can include economic factors like the GINI data, data related to the frequency of terrorist attacks, and implementation of policy. Access to databases would be crucial for data collection. However, Gilli & Gilli (2014) show how the age of the organization can also be taken into account as a variable because it reveals changes to the organization's leadership and culture. Diffusion of innovation can be difficult to quantify when it comes to examining the root causes for the third research question, but a comparison group can be drawn from another country like the Philippines to show how radical Islam functions in opposition to the established government.

There are several issues with using these types of quantitative analyses including ethical issues, and issues related to research design like validity and reliability. For example, the study is quasi-experimental and uses retrospective data and is not testing an intervention. Testing an intervention related to counterterrorism can be ethically problematic because the goal is to eliminate terror and there cannot be a control group that does not receive an intervention that could foreseeably eliminate terror without raising ethical concerns. The research design is not truly experimental, then, making it difficult to make accurate predictions. Still, the predictions made can be useful for developing more effective policy. To minimize validity and reliability issues, the researchers can tighten the research questions, narrowing them down and focusing on only one of the hypotheses.

Any type of regression analysis like ANOVA or MANOVA would be helpful because the data is gathered from retrospective sources and is existing phenomenological information. The variance between the different time periods, geographic regions, or economic groups could show how terrorist ideology and tactics become diffused throughout different regions or throughout time, providing quantitative data that can be used to inform Nigerian counterterrorism policy. Similarly, ANOVA and MANOVA can be used when comparing the results of counterterrorism policies used in other countries versus those used in Nigeria.

References

Boushey, G. (2012). Punctuated Equilibrium Theory and the Diffusion of Innovations. Policy Studies Journal 40(1): p. 127

Gilli, A. & Gilli, M. (2014). The Spread of Military Innovations: Adoption Capacity Theory, Tactical Incentives, and the Case of Suicide Terrorism. Security Studies, 23:513 -- 547.

Osumah, O. (2013). Boko Haram insurgency in Northern Nigeria and the vicious cycle of internal insecurity. Small Wars and Insurgencies 24(3): 536-560.

White, H. & Sabarwal, S. (2014). Quasi-experimental design and methods. UNICEF. Retrieved online: https://www.unicef-irc.org/publications/pdf/brief_8_quasi-experimental%20design_eng.pdf