Emergency Managers and Climate Risk

Climate change is a hoax [invented by China].
– President Donald J. Trump, July 2019
The epigraph above underscores the fundamental differences that exist between members of the scientific community and many leading policymakers today. Even as the polar ice caps continue to melt at an alarming rate and rising ocean levels are inundating low-lying coastal regions and islands around the world, climate change debunkers such as the nation’s chief executive argue that current changes in the climate are transitory and are simply part of the earth’s natural systems. Against this backdrop, it is clear that emergency managers face a number of significant challenges in preparing for climate change-associated risks, including most especially the need to overcome misguided and misinformed views about these potential risks to communities across the country. The purpose of this paper is to provide a review of the relevant literature to develop a timely and informed answer to the question, “When you enter the field, what can you highly educated individuals do to ensure that you are informed about and planning for ALL high risk hazards, climate risks included?” To this end, an examination of the current issues facing emergency managers planning for climate risks is followed by a discussion concerning some success stories in planning for climate risks as well as a description concerning how these successes were achieved. Finally, an assessment concerning how this information can be applied in a career as an emergency manager is followed by a summary of the research and important findings concerning climate risks and emergency management in the paper’s conclusion.
Review and Discussion
What issues current emergency managers are running into when trying to plan for climate risks?
Despite a growing body of scientific evidence that confirms climate change is a reality, many policymakers and public officials still maintain that the phenomenon is either not real or has been exaggerated far beyond its potential risks. This means that convincing stakeholders of the need to prepare for different types of climate-related risks may be problematic, especially if a given community has never experienced some type of anthropogenic or natural disaster in the past. Indeed, even under optimal circumstances, emergency managers may fail to take into account all of the different types of climate-related risks that are involved.
In recent decades, changes in climate have caused impacts on natural and human systems on all continents and across the oceans. Consequently, the types of risks that are associated with climate change depend in large part on the geographic location of the communities. Some communities are at far greater risk of some types of disasters such as flooding in the case of low-lying regions or severe weather in the case of the residents of Tornado Alley. It is important to note, however, that climate change is introducing a number of novel risks for many communities that make the planning process especially challenging. For example, according to a study by the IPCC Working Group II (2014), “In many regions, changing precipitation or melting snow and ice are altering hydrological systems, affecting water resources in terms of quantity and quality” (p. 1).
Beyond the foregoing considerations, emergency managers across the country are also faced with the potential for new types of disasters that are related to a complex interaction between the environment and the infrastructure. For instance, the IPCC Working Group II also emphasizes that, “Differences in vulnerability and exposure arise from non-climatic factors and from multidimensional inequalities often produced by uneven development processes. These differences shape differential risks from climate change” (p. 1). Yet another issue facing emergency managers today is the fact that there are several types of climate-related risks that can result from this complex interrelationship between infrastructure and the environment, including the increased frequency of droughts, heat waves and wildfires. These trends highlight the current vulnerability of these communities to a wide array of potential climate-related risks (IPCC Working Group II, 2014). Moreover, the risks that are associated with climate change are further exacerbated in regions of the world that are experiencing violent conflict, and the negative effects of disasters for these communities can have broad-based and far-reaching consequences as shown in Figure 1 below (IPCC Working Group II, 2014).
Figure 1. Negative impacts of climate-related hazards
Source: IPCC Working Group II, 2014, p. 2
As shown in Figure 1 above, the types of climate-related risks that can be caused by the interaction of climate-related hazards and human and natural systems run the entire gamut of adverse short- and long-term negative impacts. Some of the main drivers of hazards, vulnerability and exposure are depicted on the right of Figure 1 while the corresponding causal changes in the climate system are shown on the left. Taken together, it is clear that emergency managers in communities of all sizes and geographic locations have much to consider when planning for climate-related risks. As the IPCC Working Group II (2014) concludes, “Responding to climate-related risks involves decision making in a changing world, with continuing uncertainty about the severity and timing of climate-change impacts and with limits to the effectiveness of adaptation” (p. 3).
Although some communities are at greater risk of suffering from a climate-related disaster, there are no communities that are completely safe from these types of events. This means that emergency managers must not only identify and formulate appropriate plans for the most likely types of disaster events, they must also assess the potential for new types of disasters to occur due to unprecedented changes in the climate. While persuading members of a given community that it is important to plan for well-known and recurring types of disasters such as tornadoes in Tornado Alley or flooding in New Orleans may be fairly straightforward, emergency managers may face some significant resistance from all stakeholders when the propose spending scarce taxpayer resources on climate-related risks that may not have occurred yet. For example, according to Mickus (2017), “The science of climate change is not easy reading nor readily understood by people outside the field. Weather events may already be influenced by climate change” (p. 111).
As the growing body of scholarship confirms the reality of climate change and these findings become more widely disseminated, the resistance to planning for new disaster-related events may diminish, but it is vitally important for emergency managers to take the initiative to plan for these types of events at present. As Edwards (2013) points out, “Communities should evaluate the threat posed by climate change and determine the level of adaptation that is possible and cost-effective. Community stakeholders developing a climate adaptation plan need to include residents, emergency responders, local infrastructure agencies, scientists, and other levels of government” (p. 22). Fortunately, there have been some success stories across the country that can serve as salient examples of what can be done to mitigate the adverse effects of climate-related hazards and these issues are discussed below.
Successes: Who is currently planning for climate risks and how are they doing it?
One of the federal organizations that has taken the lead in helping community plan for climate-related risks is the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). Despite some mixed results over the years, FEMA has succeeded in help many states reduce their risk of experiencing climate-related disasters such as flash flooding. For instance, according to a report from Leven and Goldstein (2019), FEMA sent nearly $2 billion in taxpayer aid to those four states over the same period to clean up and prepare for future hits. That accounts for two of FEMA’s major programs, just part of the disaster aid flowing to states” (para. 3). In addition, emergency planners in Kentucky have also implemented a number of programs and initiatives to further mitigate the potential for future climate-related hazards, including those discussed further below.
What types of programs or initiatives do they implement?
As noted above, although no community is entirely free of climate-related hazards, the regions of the country are far more prone to certain types of disaster events than others. Therefore, the types of programs and initiatives that have been implemented in response to climate change vary depending on the geographic region that is involved. For example, researchers found that the coal mining practices in Kentucky were administered was causing flash flooding in some parts of the state. As a result, the Kentucky Energy and Environment Cabinet began collaborating with mine owners and operators in an effort to change these practices in ways that will eliminate the risk of flash flooding. For example, according to Deven and Goldstein (2019), “The Kentucky Energy and Environment Cabinet has worked with mining companies to increase safety practices while it has been extremely diligent in holding permit holders accountable to their permit obligations” (para. 4).
Likewise, The Nature Conservancy has taken steps to mitigate the risk of climate-related disasters in other states including forest-conservation efforts in Pennsylvania. The overarching objective of these programs and initiatives is to keep global warming below 36 degrees Fahrenheit and to protect people and wildlife in especially vulnerable regions. Besides working to develop alternative energy sources, The Nature Conservancy and other like-minded organizations achieve the foregoing objectives by:
· Protecting and restoring healthy and resilient natural landscapes;
· Mobilizing action to secure a clean energy future;
· Supporting laws and initiatives that promote a healthy planet; and,
· Accelerating natural climate solutions that address environmental threats (The Nature Conservancy, 2020).
Although the many of the success stories to date remain limited in scope and impact, they do make it clear that it is possible to plan for future climate-related hazards by applying science-based conservation strategies as discussed further below.
How can you apply this to your career as an emergency manager?
It is reasonable to posit that even the most ardent climate-change naysayers will likely reconsider their views after a major climate-related disaster occurs, but the handwriting is already on the wall if people just take the time to look. Therefore, applying the same strategies as FEMA and The Nature Conservancy requires a thoughtful and nonalarmist approach to persuading community leaders that draws on the growing body of scientific evidence that confirms climate change is already affecting many communities (Mickus, 2017). According to a study by Labadie (2011), though, many emergency managers either remain unaware of these climate-related trends or have elected to avoid implementing costly measures today for events that may or may not occur in the future. In this regard, Labadie (2011) emphasizes that, “This may partly reflect emergency mangers’ reluctance to get caught up in the rancorous—and politically-charged—debate about climate change” (p. 1250). Notwithstanding these constraints, though, it remains incumbent upon all emergency managers to plan for the potential climate-related extremes that are occurring with increasing frequency in the United States today (Labadie, 2011).
Conclusion
As noted in the introduction, the purpose of this paper was to develop an informed and timely answer to the guiding question, “When you enter the field, what can you highly educated individuals do to ensure that you are informed about and planning for ALL high risk hazards, climate risks included?” The research was consistent in showing that climate change is introducing new types of hazards or exacerbating the potential for known hazards, so identifying all of the high-risk hazards that are associated with climate change represents a daunting enterprise. Nevertheless, it is possible to identify the most significant types of climate-related risks through collaboration with other government agencies, emergency responders, and members of the scientific community. In the final analysis, it is reasonable to conclude that the emergency management steps that are taken today will have far-reaching implications for the rest of the 21st century, so emergency managers must remain cognizant of emerging climate-related threats.
References
Edwards, F. L. (2011, Spring). Symposium: Preparing for climate change. The Public Manager, 40(1), 20-25.
IPCC Working Group II. (2014). Assessing and managing the risks of climate change. Retrieved from https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/03/WGIIAR5_SPM_Top_Level_ Findings-1.pdf.
Labadie, J. R. (2011). Emergency managers confront climate change. Sustainability, 3, 1250-1264.
Leven, R. & Goldstein, Z. (2019). Kentucky is among the states blocking climate action. As weather gets more extreme, its residents — and U.S. taxpayers — are paying a price. Public Integrity. Retrieved from https://publicintegrity.org/environment/one-disaster-away/a-dangerous-disconnect-disaster-prone-states/.
Mickus, J. (2017, June 1). A Sugar Creek chronicle: Observing climate change from a Midwestern woodland. Perspectives on Science and Christian Faith, 69(2), 110-114.
The Nature Conservancy. (2020). Pennsylvania climate solutions. Retrieved from https://www. nature.org/en-us/about-us/where-we-work/united-states/pennsylvania/stories-in-pennsylvania/pennsylvania-climate-solutions/.