Pi: determinism, free will, and market predictability

Pi -- a Question of Free Will

In the film Pi, despite Max's belief in the stock market's existence as a series of complex but predictable numbers, the market is not a single, enclosed system, chaotic or otherwise. It is a rather a meeting-place or cross-section of complex and chaotic systems. It reflects the real and often unpredictable behaviors of very different types of international corporate enterprises, public policies, human emotions, and other external conditions such as natural disasters. Max's idea that the market is a natural organism is thus incomplete. Interestingly, during the recent stock market crash, many quantitative economists were criticized for failing to predict the sudden downturn. Their calculations did not take into consideration the level of greed and speculation that characterized so many sectors of Wall Street. Although such speculation was irrational in pursuit of financial gain, many bankers and corporate executives acted against all economic projections and they behaved as if the real estate bubble would never burst. Furthermore, the idea that theoretically that the stock market will continue to go up and up, if given 'enough time' is cold comfort to those people who are retiring now. Micro-level, individual considerations are not taken into consideration in Max's holistic concept of the market.

If all of the events the world could be understood by examining a mathematical model, if there was essentially no free will on a macro level -- probably very little would be changed on a micro level. Even today, people are more and more aware of how genes affect their emotional behaviors and physical health, and how economic and social circumstances shape their character. Yet they still approach the questions of their daily lives as if they have freedom of choice, and the criminal justice system has been loathe to refuse to punish people, simply because of defendant's unavoidable previous circumstances. Politicians pass legislation that suggests human behavior can be changed, such as anti-smoking laws.