Research design and hypothesis testing methods

¶ … treaties examined, as well as whether or not these treaties were ultimately signed and approved by the relevant national governments. Whether the treaty is bilateral or developed by a single nation will also be a subject of analysis, as will the level of free trade and the actions of the World Trade Organization at the time of each treaty's development and signing or rejection. The dependent variable in all of these points of data will be whether or not each treaty that is focused upon has been signed. With an accounting of all of the other data points and variables mentioned, the research will aim to see if the signing or rejection of each treaty could have been predicted by an analysis of the other circumstances -- e.g. WTO activity, other free trade agreements, etc. -- in the environment.

Existing theory in the area of the formation of trade agreements will be greatly enhanced by a more in-depth understanding of trade agreements between the United States and China, and the factors that influenced whether of not these trade agreements were signed. As one of the most significant trade relationships in the global economy for the past several decades, the U.S./China relationship can be seen as something of a bellwether for trade agreements in general. It is likely that the features that influence treaties signed between these two countries will also influence others, and so a better understanding of this area is truly beneficial in developing a better understanding of trade agreements and treaties in general. By examining both internal and external factors, this research will provide a very comprehensive look at U.S./China trade relations.

Once correlations between the independent variables and the dependent variable have been established -- that is, once it has been determined which factors examined, if any, influence the signing or rejection of a specific trade agreement, and the amount of influence that each factor appears to have -- there will still be several potential interpretations of the data. That is, even with statistically significant correlations found between independent variables and the dependent variable, neither causation nor the exact mechanism of any potential causation will be known. It is assumed that the external environment will have a great deal to due with what specifics must appear in the trade agreements before they are signed, but even if the evidence supports this theory it would be possible that an unidentified factor was actually influencing both the measured independent variables and the dependent variable. Controlling for all factors is impossible, however so the research will have to proceed with all possible controls yet some degree of subjective interpretation.