Conflict Diagnosis in the News:

Conflict Diagnosis in the News: Applying the Steps of Conflict Diagnosis to the Current Korean Tension

The method of analyzing and resolving conflicts known as conflict diagnosis can be highly effective in a wide range of issues, from individual conflicts between co-workers to relationship issues to major international incidents with very large global ramifications and highly complex power struggles. Utilizing this method can help break down the complexities of these issues into clearly observable and more concrete parts, allowing more definite patterns to emerge with far greater clarity than would be possible if trying to address complex conflicts without such a system. An application of the conflict diagnosis method to a current international conflict receiving media attention will demonstrate both the efficacy and the broad applicability of the conflict diagnosis system, as well as the simplicity of its use.

North and South Korea

In the worst military disaster South Korea has experienced since the end of the major war that led to this nation's political separation from the Northern part of the Korean peninsula, March 2010 saw the sinking of a South Korean warship and the death of the forty six sailors that were onboard at the time. Though there is not absolute certainty surrounding the issue, the South Koreans and the international community both firmly believe that North Korea was responsible for this sinking, and have stated as such. North Korea vehemently denies involvement, and warns that any actions taken against them will be met with the full force of the North Korean military.

This conflict, of course, stretches back for decades, when the Communist revolution in North Korea took place and the South Koreans, with the help of the United States and other international forces, fought the war to an effective draw, with the thirty-eight parallel marking a division between the communist North Korea and the democratic and free-market South Korea. Since that time, the economic situation in North Korea has deteriorated hugely under the dictatorships first of Kim Il-Sung and then his son, Kim Jong-Il. Kim Jong-Il has proven especially volatile in his dealings with the international community, developing and openly testing nuclear weapons in direct violation of international law (to which North Korea does not subscribe) and otherwise taunting and threatening his opponents in the international community, which are legion. This has led to economic isolation for North Korea, which has deepened the poverty in the country and placed it in a very precarious position with few allies but a growing ability to significantly harm the civilian populations of many of its neighbors. This has kept tensions in the area very high for some time.

It is believed that North Korea sunk South Korea's warship in an attempt to force international attention on the country, heightening the tensions and requiring that the nation be dealt with somehow. Denying these accusations leaves some room for holding diplomatic talks while still affording the country the spotlight it desires, and so far this plan (if indeed it was North Korea's plan when it -- if it -- sunk South Korea's warship). Though aggressive stances have been taken, it is unlikely that there will be a military retaliation against North Korea.

Conflict Diagnosis

The first step in the conflict diagnosis process is the mapping of the conflict, identifying the roles of the participants. In this case, assumed North Korean aggression has arisen in response to economic sanctions placed on the country by the United States and other South Korean allies. This leads to the second step of the conflict, the identification of the sources and causes of the conflict, which are the political and economic disparity that exists between the two Koreas and can be traced back to the middle of the twentieth century and the spread of Communism -- and the West's attempt to stop it. This hints at the answer to the third step in the process, identifying the needs and aspirations on both sides: the North wants increased economic assistance and to be considered more of a powerhouse in global politics, while the South wants a less aggressive neighbor. This actually makes the conflict in many ways a cooperative one, as determined in the fourth step, though it could be made competitive if all hope of an end to North Korean aggression is lost.

Unfortunately, there is very little trust between the two countries, so there is little to label and diagnose in step five, but there are many impediments to a settlement that can be examined in step six. A history of serious grievances on both sides and years of propaganda regarding the evils of the Western world in North Korea are two major impediments to an effective end of the conflict and agreement for mutual benefice. The seventh step, the identification of negotiation styles, is difficult to complete with North Korea's history of simply stonewalling.