Is the Bush Administration Planning an Attack on Iran?

Introduction: The Question of an Attack on Iran

Was the Bush administration secretly planning to invade Iran with ground forces, or to launch sudden preemptive air strikes against the Islamic republic that President Bush had labeled "a rogue nation"? Would such an attack resemble the U.S. assault on Iraq? Was attacking Iran a sound idea, either strategically or in terms of international diplomacy? And what evidence existed to suggest an American plan as provocative as an attack on Iran — particularly given the disastrous, seemingly endless war the U.S. found itself bogged down in next door? These are questions that cry out for answers in an unstable world that looks to the United States for leadership, yet sees the world's most influential superpower acting the role of a bully.

A 2004 article in The Atlantic Monthly noted that in July of that year, Iran declared "it would not ratify a protocol of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty giving inspectors greater liberty within its borders" (Fallows, 2004). In August, Iran announced that if it "suspected a foreign power — specifically the United States or Israel — of preparing to strike its emerging nuclear facilities, it might launch a pre-emptive strike of its own." One possible target, Iran asserted, could be U.S. forces across the border in Iraq. Then in September, Iran announced "it was preparing thirty-seven tons of uranium for enrichment, supposedly for power plants" — though the possibility remained that a nuclear weapons program might be well underway, which some argued would give Bush justification to attack.

Brief History of American-Iranian Relations

Many Americans remember the Islamic revolution of 1979 that forced the U.S.-backed Shah of Iran to flee the country and installed the Ayatollah Khomeini as head of government. Most Americans also recall the hostage crisis in Tehran, during which 444 days passed with staff members of the American Embassy held captive by Islamic extremists aligned with the Khomeini government.

But how many Americans remember — or even know — that much of the resentment and bitterness that Iranian and broader Islamic peoples felt, and continue to feel, toward the United States stemmed from the CIA-directed coup that placed the Shah in power on August 18, 1953? Known as Operation Ajax, it was a blatant, unilateral imposition of American will on a sovereign nation, engineered under orders from President Eisenhower and led by General H. Norman Schwarzkopf — father of the commander who led American forces in the Gulf War in 1991 — according to Stephen Kinzer's 2003 book All the Shah's Men (Reed, 2003).

Is there a link between the religious fundamentalism that flourished under Ayatollah Khomeini's regime and the rise of Osama bin Laden? "It's not far-fetched," writes Kinzer — a New York Times reporter who had filed stories from 50 countries — "to draw a line from Operation Ajax through the Shah's repressive regime and then the Islamic Revolution [that sent him into exile in 1979] to the fireballs that engulfed the World Trade Center [on September 11, 2001]."

The Iraq War: Costs and Consequences

Meanwhile, the war in Iraq had become a bloody quagmire. What Bush launched in March 2003 with the stated goals of removing Saddam Hussein and locating weapons of mass destruction (WMD) had transformed into an American occupation and a new conflict featuring insurgent extremists destroying U.S. troops with car bombs. Saddam Hussein was in custody, but no WMD had been found. "The human toll of the war has been high for Americans and Iraqis alike" (Lee, 2005). More than 1,500 U.S. soldiers had been killed and more than 11,000 wounded, while estimates suggested that as many as 100,000 Iraqi civilians had lost their lives — figures cited by U.S. Representative Barbara Lee (D-Oakland) in the San Jose Mercury-News.

The financial cost was staggering as well. Including the $80 billion Bush was requesting from Congress at the time, the total had risen well above $300 billion. As Representative Lee noted, "while the president has asked Congress to extend his tax breaks for the wealthy, he is insisting on cuts in vital programs for education, housing, and health care." The Iraq War was thus exacting costs that extended far beyond the battlefield.

Conclusion: Parallels and Prospects

Notwithstanding the poll's results, Bush would not have to run for reelection and believed, apparently, that he had a "mandate" to conduct business as he saw fit. But would he launch a war with Iran? The warning signs were difficult to ignore. As an editorial in the New Statesman observed, "the prologue is uncannily similar: the claims that a member of the 'axis of evil' is developing nuclear weapons and that it supports terrorist movements overseas; the demands for inspections; the growing references among Washington conservative commentators to the desirability of 'regime change.'" Whether or not a military strike on Iran was actively being planned, the rhetorical architecture that had preceded the invasion of Iraq was being reconstructed — this time, with Iran in the crosshairs.