This paper examines the key components of total cost of procurement, including direct and indirect costs, opportunity costs, and total cost of ownership. It then analyzes collaborative planning forecasting replenishment (CPFR), a data-driven technique used by major retailers like Walmart to optimize inventory levels and supplier relationships. The paper evaluates the benefits of CPFR systems, such as improved demand forecasting and lower holding costs, while also discussing significant limitations including inventory cost shifting, demand forecast risks, and inflexibility in handling demand spikes. The analysis demonstrates how sophisticated procurement strategies leverage data analytics to reduce overall costs while acknowledging the trade-offs and risks inherent in modern supply chain approaches.
The total cost of procurement must factor in all aspects of sourcing, including the cost of inputs, transportation, insurance, taxes, duties, and any differences between competing suppliers. For example, if one product has large packaging that means fewer units can be shipped or stored at a given time, the resulting reduced efficiency may need to be considered. Different trade-offs and opportunity costs are often evaluated from a total cost of procurement perspective (Aral, Bell & van Wassenhove, n.d.).
The cost analysis process must examine these different elements because an input contains numerous attributes and factors that contribute to overall expenses. Procurement officers need to account for all costs they will be responsible for in order to drive down overall procurement costs. This analysis arguably includes labor costs associated with the procurement function itself. It is most cost-effective, for example, to deal with fewer suppliers or to work with suppliers who offer automated ordering systems.
Another key element is the total cost of ownership—how long will an input last? An input lasting three years is superior to one lasting two years if they cost the same. Thus, procurement officers must consider the lifespan of goods when making critical purchases (NZ, 2013).
Collaborative Planning Forecasting Replenishment (CPFR) is a technique used by companies in the retail sector, including Walmart. This method begins with forecasting analytics at the retail level, estimating demand based on historical data and regression analysis with causal factors such as weather and seasonality. When retailers better understand demand conditions, their orders become not only proactive but more accurate as well. Such forecasting reduces the need for holding high levels of inventory.
At Walmart, this system operates as follows: the company estimates demand at the individual store level and maintains real-time counts of all inventory. From this information, suppliers are directly connected to the system. The supplier receives an order when the inventory level relative to expected demand crosses a particular threshold.
The advantages of this system are evident. The system is built on stronger data and analytics, which should enable better decision-making. With lower inventory levels, total procurement cost decreases because inventory holding costs are lower. It is easier to implement just-in-time systems when suppliers and buyers are connected in this manner. The strong connection between suppliers and buyers under this system also strengthens their relationship. Both parties benefit because the supplier knows it will have that future business, with both parties invested in working together.
However, there are significant downsides to this system. From the supplier's point of view, if there are lags in production, inventory carrying costs are simply being shifted rather than eliminated. The buyer might use less warehouse space, but the supplier must maintain inventory on hand to deliver immediately when an order arrives. This may cause the supplier to increase its inventory holdings. The burden is therefore shifted, not eliminated. This system works for Walmart because it has the bargaining power to dictate these terms to suppliers, but smaller retailers, even when they have the analytical capability to run this system, may not be able to make such demands.
"Structural risks and cost-shifting complications"
NZ. (2013). Total cost of ownership.
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