Conflict Mapping in South Sudan

Conflict Mapping in South Sudan 7 1. An outlook of South Sudan The Republic of South Sudan is the world’s youngest country that gained independence in 2011 but remains underdeveloped and plagued by civil war (Blanchard, 2016). South Sudan is an Eastern African landlocked country sharing borders with Sudan Uganda, Central Africa Republic, Kenya, DRC Congo, and Ethiopia. South Sudan is a resource-rich country with oil contributing to the largest share of the country’s GDP (King 2015).

The country is a leading resource-rich country in Sub-Saharan Africa hosting the third largest oil reserves in the region. The country’s population is projected at 13.8 million 72% of the population aged below 30 years. South Sudan is characterized by ethnic diversity and accounts 60 diverse major ethnic groups with the Dinka accounting for 35.8% and the Nuer accounting for 15.6 % being the largest ethnic groups. However, it’s estimated that there are over 4 Million South Sudanese refugees by end of 2017, with half of the refugees fleeing to neighboring nations.

The refugee crisis in South Sudan is the largest globally after Afghanistan and Syria (Dessalegn, 2017). The economy of South Sudan has been deteriorating since independence in 2011 and characterized by underdeveloped infrastructure ranking poorest in multiple socioeconomic indicators (King 2015). The country has a triple-digit inflation rate and poverty is widespread. The World Bank estimates the population of South Sudanese living below the poverty line amounted to 82% by end of 2016, additionally literacy rates amounts to 27% implying that the country lacks in a skilled workforce.

Dessalegn (2017) reports up to 95% of the population is dependent on agriculture which with the advent of war has declined in productivity. Although electricity is a critical backbone for an economy, only 2% of the South Sudanese population has access to electricity (King 2015). 2. The context of South Sudan Civil War South Sudan has consistently been under the grip of political strife and civil war.

While South Sudan gained independence in July 2011, the aftermath of independence has been a civil war that broke two years later on the December of 2013 as a consequence of political dispute (Radon & Logan, 2014). The emergence of civil war catastrophically reversed post-independence development and state-building efforts. The drivers of the chronic civil war in South Sudan is varied spanning from political dispute to pervasive militarization (Dessalegn, 2017; Strasser, 2016). Blanchard (2016) notes that the consistent conflict in South Sudan demonstrates the sustained tension between the political elite and tribal differences 2.1.

Political Dispute Political struggle between President Salva Kiir and Vice President Riek Machar that resulted to splitting of the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) and ethnic divisiveness between the leading ethnic group Dinka and Nuer have been identified as the root cause of the ongoing civil conflict in South Sudan (Strasser, 2016; Carlos & Gutschke, 2014). According to Dessalegn (2017), the conflict erupted from the controversy between President Kiir and Vice-President Machar.

It’s notable that the tension between President Kiir and Vice President Machar began with the announcement of DR. Machar intent to vie for chairmanship of the Sudan People Liberation Movement (SPLM) in the 2015 elections that would automatically imply being the president of South Sudan (Carlos & Gutschke, 2014). With the announcement of the intent to contest, President Kiir revoked executive powers of DR. Machar, then the vice-president of the National Liberation Council, and dismissed all the ministers of their duties (Blanchard, 2016). Both President Kir and Dr.

Machar had counter accusations. President Kiir accused Dr. Machar of plotting a coup attempt, while Dr. Machar counters the argument as a plot by President Kiir to assassinate Dr. Machar and ethnic cleansing of the Nuer tribe. The allegation of the coup resulted in the detention of members of the SPLM/A, who were believed to be supporters of the opposition. The 2013-2015 civil war was arguably triggered by President Kiir Guards by invading Dr.Machar house and subsequent killing of Nuer people in Juba.

The aftermath of the accusation was a conflict between the Nuer and Dinka which resulted in Machar fleeing the capital of Juba to North East South Sudan. Subsequently, killings of Nuer in Juba were reported which sparked local uprising and rebellion which saw the involvement of organized militia group such as white army to revenge against the Nuer December assassination (Strasser, 2016; Radon & Logan, 2014). 2.2.

Ethnicity and War Although the onset of the civil war in South Sudan was triggered by political stifle, spiraling violence has been characterized by a bloody ethnic division. While President Kiir is largely supported by the Dinka ethnic group, Vice President Machar is extensively supported by the Nuer. According to Blanchard (2016), civilians by large are targeted based on their ethnic basis changing the dynamics of the war from Dinka vs Nuer to Dinka vs Non- Dinka ethnicities.

The Non-Dinka tribes hold a negative perception of President Kiir regimes given the regimes tribal bias in resource (land) allocation (Carlos & Gutschke, 2014). The renewed historical communal indifference intensified the war resulting in tribal genocide. The increasing involvement of the Nuer white army, deliberate church and hospital massacres demonstrate the evolution if the war. The pervasive cases of sexual assault have been associated with ethnic troops. 2.3.

Highly Militarized Nation The competing dominant group of elites in South Sudan referred to as the “gun class” have been a driver of South Sudan chronic civil war. The elite group supports militia groups to escalate political grievances that often explodes in deadly violence with pronounced ethnic undertones. For example, the supporters of Dr. Machar entails a division of army that broke away from the national army (Radon & Logan, 2014).

The failure of the Post-independence government to settle historical grievances has escalated the South –Sudan War and metamorphism from a political dispute to ethnic tribal cleansing as the ethnic tribes compete for resources (Dessalegn, 2017). Human rights violation has been extensively reported in South Sudan in the advent of the chronic war. 3. Conflict Dynamics The conflict claimed more than 50,000 lives and left hundreds of thousands of displaced (Blanchard, 2016). At independence, infrastructure and institutions and socio-economic systems were highlight fragile with limited capacity to withstand eruption of civil conflict (King, 2015).

Hence, the severe impact of the 2013-2015 conflict. Blanchard (2016) reports that the UN classifies South Sudan as ‘”level 3” humanitarian emergencies. The rise of the civil war has resulted in the breakdown of social services, the decline in oil production, and a decline in agricultural productivity, hyperinflation and humanitarian crisis. While inflation has skyrocketed to highs of 300%, the IMF cautions that South Sudan economy declined by half between 2013 and 2016 (Dessalegn, 2017).

The persistence conflict in the south curtails any agricultural activities and given that 95% of the population relies on agriculture for the source of livelihood, starvation has been pervasive (King, 2015). The UNDO estimates severe food insecurity in South Sudan with 11 million Sudanese being at risk of severe food insecurity (Strasser, 2016). The extensive use of child soldiers amounting to 17,000 children pauses a human resource constraint on the young nation. 4.

Conflict Intervention The Intergovernmental Authority for Development (IGAD) has taken a central role in mobilizing humanitarian, diplomatic and peacekeeping resources to re-stabilize South Sudan (Radon & Logan, 2014). The IGAD has led peace negotiations between the warring parties. In addition, the UN Security Council has often called for sanctions as well as authorized additional peacekeeping resources to bolster the ongoing interventions. Dessalegn (2017) identifies that the peace intervention has entailed multiple ceasefire agreements between the government and rebels which are often violated.

In August 2015, a Peace agreement was reached between the government and Sudan People’s Liberation Movement/Army-In Opposition (SPLM/A-IO) with intent to unite the warring.