¶ … love biking but have, unfortunately, gone through several different bikes in my life. Some of them have been stolen, others have been lost, others have just broken down and the cost of repairing them has been too great. Usually, I go for the cheapest bikes that I can busy, straight out from some supermarket package, but this time I am intending to spend my hard-earned money in a beatific model, something like Trek or Raleigh. I have been perusing consumerist's magazines for months ahead of time and am finally ready to make my purchase. I am intending to use probability concepts to help me.
This is what I will do:
I only have a limited amount of places to choose from.
The first place is a second-hand store. There is 'subjective' probability' and there is 'objective' probability; likely, my judgment will be made from a combination of both: the objective probability based on what I see and soliciting advice from the storeowner, and the subjective probability based on my own experience of what I want and what failed me in the past.
Probability ranges from 0 to 1. In other words, 0 represents absolute certainty that I will not obtain my desired bike from this place, whilst 1 represents absolute certainty that the bike will possess all required elements.
The characteristics of...
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