Counter Terrorism in Africa Policy Design

.....ending terrorism in Africa, the methods employed should be oriented towards measuring outputs. The outputs that are expected with this particular study are the ending of terrorism in Africa. The inputs are the various strategies and programs that are implemented in order to bring about this outcome. The outcome has to be measured in a quantitative manner in order that a statistical analysis can be performed. Thus, the type of quantitative study that could be utilized here may depend upon the type of evaluation that is to be undertaken.

Two types of evaluations could be used here -- a vertical evaluation or a horizontal evaluation. A vertical evaluation is used to measure "specific programs from inception to outcome" while a horizontal evaluation is used to assess "the efforts undertaken by multiple agencies and entities to support a specific government action plan or strategy" (Romaniuk, Fink, 2012, p. 13).

A correlational design would make use of descriptive statistical analysis and involve measuring 2 variables, the central tendency of both plus their variability and relationship. A Pearson r test would be performed to assess the strength and direction of the relationship. The study could look something like: What is the effect of a counter-terrorism policy on the strength of Boko-Haram? The IV (counter-terrorism policy) and the DV (Boko-Haram's strength) would both have to be measured.

In such a design, the sample or subjects studied in this case would have to be gathered. For this study, a sample could be taken from assessments of various regions where Boko Haram and counter-terrorism policies are present at one time or another. Assessments could be made of what a region was like before the arrival of Boko Haram, then what it was like after the implementation of counter-terrorism policies.

If multiple groups (2 or more) are being studied, then the design could be causal-comparative. Different groups -- regions, cities, towns, villages -- could be compared. The IV could be the counter-terrorism policy and the DV could be the ability of the region to resist Boko-Haram. The control could be regions where no counter-terrorism policy is implemented. Thus the effect of counter-terrorism policy vs. no counter-terrorism policy could be measured. Statistical significance would be measured using a t-test and taking the mean of the measurements and evaluating it in relation to alpha (0.5). Anything above shows no statistical significance while anything below does show statistical significance. A large enough and suitable sample size would need to be drawn, which could make this study more difficult to perform.

Thus selecting a treatment -- counter-terrorism policy -- and control groups (regions were no policy is implemented) may be the best way to conduct a field experiment. The limitations of the study will necessarily have to be addressed as it is possible that a statistically significant sample size will be difficult to achieve. For this reason, the study is likely to be limited in terms of external validity (Mills, Gray, Airasian, 2012). However, in terms of internal validity, it should be duplicable because the method, design, and measurement and analysis of data will all be described in accurate and detailed terms. This will help to give the study a strong support even if its outcomes are limited by sample size. The study will thus be a quantitative analysis of variables connected to the ability of counter-terrorism programs to stop the spread of Boko-Haram.

References

Mills, G. E., & Gay, L. R. & Airasian. (2012). Educational research: Competencies for analysis and applications. Boston, MA: Pearson Publishing.

Romaniuk, P., Fink, N. (2012). Evaluating Terrorism Prevention Programs. Center on Global Counterterrorism Cooperation. Retrieved from http://www.globalcenter.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/CGCC_EvaluatingTerrorismPrevention.pdf