Starting a Home-Based Business but Am Not

¶ … starting a home-based business but am not sure whether I should proceed with these plans or persist with my original intention, I.e. To enter the teaching field. I have employed the traditional decision-making strategies, as well as reread books on the subject and approached careers advising. I will now try the probability technique.

Firstly, I can approach the situation with ascertaining the subjective or objective probability of my predicted situation, likely this refers to how successful I will be in either scenario. The subjective probability is the impression that I accumulate from life experience and from biases such as my dreams and fears. Totaling them up, if I were an optimist I may conclude that I will be successful in either field. 'Objective probability' refers to my accumulating empirical evidence regarding the rigors of each field and my rating in each as well as steps needed to launch myself in each field. I will adopt the rout of 'objective probability'.

Probability ranges from 0 to 1. In other words, 0 represents absolute certainty that oen of the fields is not for me, and that I should devote attention to the other. I am looking for absolute certainty at this moment in life in order to dedicate myself to one goal. The summation of all the units of probability in between 0 and 1 = 1. I want 1.00 (i.e. 100%) probability, not 0.5, in the decision that I take.

My decision may involve non-mutually exclusive events, such as, for instance, I may have to consider trade-offs being unable to accomplish all. As, for instance, work at home may bring me greater security (since self-owned) than becoming a lecturer. On the other hand, lecturing may bring me greater security since it may bring me a regular paycheck. Work at home may be cost-effective in various ways; lecturing may, however, bring me prestige. A way that I can determine the probabilities of x or y occurring is by adding the individual probabilities of situation X and situation Y, and subtracting the probability that the two occur simultaneously from the total (P (x or y) = P (x) +P (y) -- P (x+y).

All decisions are influenced by previous, or contingent events. This is where the Bayesian probability theorem can help me out, for right now I am choosing a career in the midst of a recession that is predicted to last for at least another decade. Let us say I am leaning towards the lecturing career but, given the recession, am unsure whether to enter it due to the current job market. I can work this out with the following theorem:

P (x/y) = P (x+y) / P (y).

P= probability. X= lecture ring. Y= recession.

The algorithm becomes more complex for the true mathematician. I leave it in its pure form.

Probability trees are a further strategy that can help me develop my decision-making. I construct a probability tree diagram where I create stems to represent my various choices and designate a number (between 0 to 1) that stands for the perceived value of the decision next to each stem. So, for instance, I list the various tasks, or scenarios, that each alternative involves and rate it between 0 to 1. I then sum the lot of each particular choice to assess my preferences. The whole may be defined as binomial distribution since options are independent of each other.

Other techniques that I can use are tabulated layout of my options (Probability table) rating each option according to perceived value and summing each option in order to decide. The Poisson distribution is another strategy where I approximate the binomial distribution under certain conditions (e.g. recession) or location (e.g. probability of my finding a lecturing position in current geographical location).