This report evaluates the investment viability of a proposed $7.5 million Class A office building in downtown Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, offering 60,000 rentable square feet at $17–19 per square foot. Drawing on first-quarter 2004 market data from Cushman & Wakefield and fiscal research by Kevin Gillen, the paper examines CBD vacancy rates, suburban competition, and the projected impact of two major KOIZ-designated developments — Cira Centre and One Pennsylvania Place. The analysis concludes that while the proposed building's below-market rental rate offers a modest competitive advantage, the overall investment is inadvisable given stagnant growth indicators and the significant market disruption expected from new KOIZ-subsidized office towers entering the downtown core.
This report determines the viability of a proposed $7.5 million investment in a Class A office building in downtown Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. The building will offer 60,000 rentable square feet at a rental rate of $17–19 per square foot. The analysis draws on first-quarter 2004 market data and fiscal research to assess current conditions, competitive pressures, and the projected impact of major planned developments on the Philadelphia central business district (CBD).
The office market in the Philadelphia CBD is currently experiencing a downturn. Since 1990, nearly 2,100 people per year have left the downtown (Gillen). There is little evidence to suggest that this trend will be reversed in the near future. Overall, Philadelphia enjoys a relatively healthy economy, with a March 2004 unemployment rate of 5.5% and a civilian labor force of 2,488,500 individuals (U.S. Department of Labor).
The average rental rate for the CBD from the first quarter of 2002 to the first quarter of 2004 has remained steady, hovering near $24 per square foot. The vacancy rate for the CBD has also remained relatively stable at close to 14%. While suburban rental rates have similarly held near $24 per square foot over the same period, suburban vacancy rates have been rising. During the first quarter of 2002, vacancy rates in the suburban market were close to 17%, but climbed to nearly 24% by the first quarter of 2004 (Cushman & Wakefield).
Cushman & Wakefield note that the first quarter of 2004 saw competition between "landlords of Class A and B properties to retain tenants looking to relocate," suggesting that further competitive pressure may be a significant issue in the CBD. There also appears to be growing demand for Class A properties and mid-rise buildings in the Southern New Jersey region, illustrated by a movement toward high-quality Class A space that has pushed some companies into high-end flex buildings over the past year and a half (Cushman & Wakefield).
Overall, the CBD "demonstrated a steady increase in business activity and capital investments" (Cushman & Wakefield) during the first quarter of 2004. By contrast, the Suburban Philadelphia region was characterized by "tepid business growth and lackluster demand for office space" (Cushman & Wakefield).
"Identifies competing buildings under construction nearby"
"Analyzes KOIZ tax incentives and market displacement risk"
"Concludes investment is inadvisable given market risks"
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