Forecasting Essays (Examples)

The distributor would as such be able to identify the new needs of the customers and the suppliers, and will be able to serve them in quick and efficient manner, by delivering results before the competition even becomes aware of the existence of the changes incurred. In other words, competitive advantages would be created (oyer, 2005). Within the longer term, a suggestion is made in the combination of qualitative and quantitative methods in order to increase the accuracy of the forecasting processes.

4. Inflation projections

Aside from the integration of customer and supplier traits in the completion of the forecasting efforts, in is also recommended for the company to also integrate other macro economic traits in its projections. This necessity is pegged to the fact that EBBD is an intermediary company, distributing the items produced by others to the end consumers. This feature makes it more sensitive to movements within…

References:

Belke, a., Polleit, T., 2010, Monetary economics in globalized financial markets, Spinger

Lindeke, R., Forecasting models,  http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=8&ved=0CHcQFjAH&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.d.umn.edu%2F~rlindek1%2FPOM%2Fassets%2FIE3265_Forecasting.ppt&ei=5O_NT7KwDrCa1AWS7YWTDA&usg=AFQjCNGNbb42WCmY02dyuxVM1UEpjEj6mA  last accessed on June 5, 2012

Meyer, B.H., Pasaogullari, M., 2010, Simple ways to forecast inflation: what works best? Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland,  http://www.clevelandfed.org/research/commentary/2010/2010-17.cfm  last accessed on June 5, 2012

Mishkin, F.S., 2007, Monetary policy strategy, MIT Press

Forecasting Indices

The following figure is taken from sales data of sporting goods, graphed over the last four years, showing worldwide demand for wave and ski boards combined. Each line on the graphic shows combined sales of wave and ski boards. The significant ramp in sales throughout March and April are attributable to the launch of each seasons' new wave boards. The spoke in sales in October are attributable to ski board sales ramping on a seasonal basis. In aggregate the market continues to grow for these products, generating a compound annual growth rate (CAG) for the four years of 4.76%. Using averaging based on four periods generates the Averaging line shown in the following graphic.

Forecasting Analysis

A relatively simplistic approach to defining year 5's inventory doesn't necessarily capture the variation in forecasts over the four previous years. As can be seen from the graphic on the previous page,…

References

Goodwin, P., & Wright, G. (1993). Improving judgmental time series forecasting: A review of the guidance provided by research. International Journal of Forecasting, 9(2), 147-147.

Snyder, D. (1982). Current approaches to time series forecasting. Business Forum, 7(2), 24-24.

Ziegel, E.R. (2006). Computational intelligence in time series forecasting. Technometrics, 48(3), 451-451.

The information is then collected and summarized and presented to the experts. The experts can then reconsider their answers and adjust them. This process can continue as required, with the intention being for a general consensus to emerge. The purpose of the technique is to utilize a range of experts, but in a way where each gives their opinion independently. The main difference between this method and other forecasting methods is that the forecasting is based on opinions, rather than data.

Another forecasting technique is moving-average forecasting. It is used to predict future events based on the assumption that future events will be based on past events. Another related method based on the same assumption is exponential smoothing. This method takes the same approach as moving-average forecasting and also forecasts future events based on past events. The difference is that the calculation includes an adjustment that takes into account both…

References

Schermerhorn, J.R. (1999). Management for Productivity. New York: John Wiley & Sons.

Slack, N., Chambers, S., Harland, C., Harrison, A., & Johnston, R. (1998). Operations Management. San Francisco, CA: Pitman Publishing.

Forecasting

Operations Management Managers Module 3 - SLP Forecasting Consider organization selected previous SLP papers. Integrate concepts operations management principles 've studying module turn page paper addressing questions (remember references): 1) How forecasting carried organization ( level discussing)? 2) How relate product development services offers? 3) What difficulties organization faces coming accurate forecasts? Could improve forecasts methods? SLP Assignment Expectations: esearch organization information find internet resources find .

Forecasting: Wal-Mart

Q1, How is forecasting carried out in your organization (be sure to specify the level you are discussing)

Wal-Mart has long made use of a forecasting technique called the Collaborative Forecasting and eplenishment (CFA) initiative, designed to integrate its internal processes of forecasting likely supply and demand with the forecasts of its suppliers. Wal-Mart "provides each of its major suppliers with a profit-and-loss statement for the goods received from that supplier" (Darling & Semich 1996). Using Wal-Mart's data warehouse, suppliers…

References

Darling, Charles B. & J. William Semich. (1996). Wal-Mart's IT secret. Asia Associates.

Retrieved July 27, 2011 at http://asiassociates.com/success/past/article5.html

Gregory, Sean. (2009, September 14). Wal-Mart vs. Target in recession: No contest.

Time Magazine. Retrieved July 27, 2011 at  http://www.time.com/time/business/article/0,8599,1885133,00.html

Forecasting

The type of forecasting that should be in place at an insurance company is time series analysis, as it is through this approach to forecasting that prior demands are used to predict future demands (Chase et al. 2005). At the particular insurance corporation in question, this is precisely the type of forecasting that is in place; the number of claims expected in a given period of time is based on the number of claims (in relation to the number of clients covered by insurance policies) in previous comparable time periods, and perhaps more importantly the specific time demands of any given claim are predicted based on the average times of claims handled by the organization. For firms like insurance companies where per-unit "production" times and resource demands vary, time series analysis is an essential means of forecasting to ensure proper human and other resources are available (Armstrong 2001).

Time…

References

Armstrong, J. (2001). Principles of Forecasting. New York: Springer.

Makridakis, S., Wheelwright, S. & Hyndman, R. (2008). Forecasting Methods And Applications. New York: Wiley.

Forecasting Methods

There are three basic forecasting methods namely the time series methods, the regression methods, and qualitative methods. Qualitative methods use management judgment, expertise, and opinion to make forecasts. These methods are most commonly used in long-term strategic planning process bearing in mind there are individuals within an organization whose judgment and opinion are very integral in the running of search organizations (Brown, 1959). In fact their opinions count more than those of experts drawn from outside the organization. Quantitative methods make use of mathematical and statistical tools to capture and analyze information. They are used to measure and model outcomes, eliminating rogue results and other influences (Brown, 1959). Investment managers use quantitative methods to value different classes of securities, analyze criteria for guiding investment decisions, and measure risk and asset return. Quantitative methods are also used in calculating yields and prices, frequency distributions, and risk, and probability.

Scholars…

References List

Brown, R.G. (1959). Statistical forecasting for inventory control. New York: McGraw-Hill.

Hanke, J. & Reitsch, A. (1992). Business Forecasting (4th edn.). New York: Simon & Schuster.

Forecasting

Sales Forecast for iordan Manufacturing

iordan Manufacturing is pursuing a growth strategy, with a stated target of increasing sales by $50 million by the end of 2007. According to the annual invoices issued for 2005, the firm already has annual sales of $50.8 million; this is a target to effectively double the demand over a period of two years. The sales will be achieved through increasing sales to existing customers, which is expected to account for 60% of the increase, as well as attracting new customers. To put the plan into action it is necessary not only to develop underlying strategies to promote growth such as the increased incentives for the sales force, it is also essential to develop a sales forecasting plan.

When forecasting sales there are different methods which may be utilized, some are more scientific than others. One approach may be to make educated guesses, looking…

References

Armstrong, JS, (1985), Forecasting, From Crystal Ball to Computer, John Wiley and Sons.

Koehler, Anne B; Bowerman, Bruce; O'Connell, Richard, (2003), Forecasting, Time Series, and Regression: An Applied Approach, Brooks/Cole

Forecasting Future Trrends in Digital Crime And

Forecasting Future Trends in Digital Crime and Digital Terrorism

FOECASTING FUTUE TENDS IN DIGITAL CIME AND 1

Forecasting Future Trends in Digital Crime and Digital Terrorism

Cybercriminal threats that have been going on in the U.S. result in important financial losses. Nevertheless the threat against financial organizations is just a small section of the issue. Likewise of thoughtful concern are considered to be threats to critical substructure, the theft of intellectual property, and supply chain matters. U.S. critical infrastructure faces a mounting cyber threat owing to progressions in the availability and complexity of malevolent software tools and the fact that new technologies are out there raising new security concerns that cannot continuously be addressed previous to adoption. The growing mechanization of our perilous infrastructures delivers more cyber contact points for opponents to abuse. With that said this paper will analyze the forecasts and…

References:

Ahmad, R. & . (2012). A dynamic cyber terrorism framework. International Journal of Computer Science and Information Security,, 10(2), 149-158.

Eijkman, Q. (2013). Digital security governance and accountability in europe: Ethical dilemmas in terrorism risk management. Journal of Politics and Law,, 6(4), 35-45.

Grabosky, P. (2007). The internet, technology, and organized crime. Asian Journal of Criminology, 2(2), 145-161.

Robert W. Taylor, E.J. (2011). Digital Crime, Digital Terrorism, . Prentice Hall.

Forecasting Techniques Using Moving Average, Exponential Smoothing, and Weighted Moving Average

Forecasting is an attempt to predict the future using either quantitative or qualitative technique. Forecasting is an integral part of human activity, however, businesses are increasingly using the forecasting technique to predict sales, demand planning, cost projection, inventory control, corporate planning, advertising planning, production planning and investment cash flow. (Lucey, 2002). While there are different strategies that can be used for the forecasting, however, the time-series analysis is one of the effective strategies that businesses use for the forecasting. The time series analysis is a form of the statistical or mathematical technique using the past data to forecast the future. The benefit of the time series analysis is the simplicity. The examples of the time series analysis are the moving average, weighted moving average and exponential smoothing.

The objective of the study is to use the moving average, weighted…

Reference

Lucey, T. (2002). Quantitative Techniques (Sixth Edition).UK. Cengage Learning EMEA.

Forecasting Techniques

Business decisions require accurate forecasting which takes into account the possible trends and twists in the economy and the society. One of the earliest accounts of forecasting can be found in the Bible when Joseph interpreted dreams and told people there would be seven years of harvest followed by seven years of drought. With careful forecasting, the Pharaoh and his people could prepare themselves for the latter period of adversity. While business experts may no longer rely on dreams or even hunches, they still engage in consistent forecasting with the help of current data, models, forecasting methods and various popular theories. Forecasting is thus an important part of business planning since business decision makers are more interested in formulating policies and strategies that are based on accurate information of current and future trends instead of randomly coming up with ideas and measures for the future.

Past is usually…

References

Denise Burnette, Nancy Morrow-Howell, Li-Mei Chen, The Gerontologist. Washington: Dec 2003. Vol. 43, Iss. 6; pg. 828

Chaman L. Jain, The Journal of Business Forecasting Methods & Systems. Flushing: Fall 2004. Vol. 23, Iss. 3; pg. 2, 3 pages

Forecasting is the process of using data from previous intervals to determine future data. Meteorologists use data from previous weather events to predict future weather patterns. In a similar way, sales can help to predict future inventory stocking needs by accumulated data from previous years. The first step in the process is to create an index for each month by dividing the current month by the index (or first) month. For example, month one of the first year is equal to 55,200. Month one of the second year is equal to 39,800. Dividing the second year by the first year gives an index result of 0.721014. An index number smaller than one indicates a decrease in the number from the first year to the second, and an index number greater than one shows an increase from one year to the next. The following chart shows the resulting index for each…

These one or two members then enable the collection of data which can be spread rapidly to a large number of different terrorist cells. With the current trends toward large global networks, this also encourages the spread of information to terrorists who are in countries in which they may be free to recruit and train in preparation for terrorist missions. Forming into these networks also allows for the sharing of information, so it ensures that operations are likely to be more successful due to the shared knowledge and experiences between different groups.

The majority of terrorist threats come from groups which are spread throughout an area rather than inhabiting one particular place. The use of networks allows all these separate groups to act in ways which create combined effects, which are more successful in advances towards the network's shared goals (Sageman).

eferences

Sageman, Michael. Understanding Terror Networks. Philadelphia: University of…

References

Sageman, Michael. Understanding Terror Networks. Philadelphia: University of Pennsylvania Press, 2004.

The narrow selfishness of these terrorists then relate to the well-being of their families in either the positive or negative sense. They engage in suicidal terrorism to either protect their families from the threat of harm, or to provide them with comfort by means of money.

On the other hand, Caplan also notes that suicidal terrorism is extremely rare, and is therefore a greater indicator of self-interest among terrorists than engaging in suicidal activities. The author concludes that it is probably more rational not to wish to commit suicide for the cause of terrorism than it is to do so. Available statistics appear to confirm this.

Caplan cites terrorist beliefs as one of the main reasons for the perception of their actions as irrational. One of these improbable beliefs is the example of the 72 virgins mentioned above. This is the reward promised for suicide bombers. Furthermore, extreme predictions regarding…

Sources

Caplan, Bryan. (2005, May). Terrorism: The relevance of the rational choice model. Fairfax, VA: George Mason University. http://cipp.gmu.edu/archive/Relevance-of-the-Rational-Choice-Model-Caplan.pdf

Emery, Norman, Werchan, Jason & Mowles, Donald G. Jr. (2005, Jan-Feb). Fighting terrorism and insurgency: shaping the information environment. Military Review

 http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m0PBZ/is_1_85/ai_n13821821 

Lavrov, Sergey V. (2004, Jun-Aug). Building a collective response to terrorism. UN Chronicle.  http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m1309/is_2_41/ai_n6234392

Subject: Findings from analyzing the Arapahoe County 2017 Adopted Budgets by using the 2013-16 Adopted Budgets to establish a baseline for comparison
The purpose of this memo is to relay to you the findings I obtained from a comprehensive analysis of the Arapahoe County 2017 Adopted Budgets through the preceding Adopted Budgets for the preceding 2013 – 2016 financial years, with the aim of developing a baseline for making comparisons. The main objective of this analysis is to pinpoint prospective areas to make inquiries to the department regarding the budget submissions made.
The forecasting process was conducted in three ways. The first approach was through regression using the forecast function. The forecasted amounts for all expense categories increased as compared to the 2016 Adopted Budget. The adopted budgets for 2013 to 2016 fiscal years ranged from 8.4 million to 12.4 million. The second approach employed for the budget projection is…

There is an expense item in the comparisons between the high and low projections and the 2017 Adopted Budget amounts that necessitates increased analysis and scrutiny. The projections for the central services indicates an alarming change between the two projections. The low projection stands at 56.61 percent whereas the high projection stands at 1.38 percent. This is indicative of a significant discrepancy and therefore necessitates detailed and closer scrutiny.
The methods of projecting the 2017 budget seems to highlight a number of issues on what the budget developers came up with. This is based on the fact that the 2017 Adopted Budgeted expense items are considerably lower in comparison to the 2017 low projections and 2017 high projections. The 2017 adopted budget is $10,614,333 whereas the total low projection is $11,938,401 and the total high projection is $13,058,708. This indicates that the amounts in the adopted budgets are lower than the projections given. This approach without doubt can act as a standard stick to employ in assessing future budgets to ascertain if the request of the Clerk and Recorder’s department request is not at par. In this particular case, the high and low projections show that the budgeted amounts are too low.

 

Forecasting

A forecast should be as accurate as possible. There are several reasons for this. The first is that forecasts are often used to make business decisions such as purchasing and resource deployment. When the forecast is far from reality, the business decisions will also reflect that. If the point of forecasting is to ensure the right levels of labor, inventory and capital, then a bad forecast will leave the company with an amount of these things entirely inadequate for its needs.

In addition, forecasts are used as control for companies. Managers and other workers are sometimes evaluate on the basis of their ability to meet budgets. Thus, the forecast needs to be fairly accurate. If the forecast is not accurate, then the use of the forecast as a control tool becomes much more difficult, if not outright impossible. People cannot be measured against unrealistic expectations, and the same goes…

Forecasting being the marketing business process as well as web improvement of shaping the kind of business souk that individuals are involved in as well as how demographically the said souk is, it can as well engross attempting to envisage the trends of the present market in order to anticipate, develop as well as meeting the alternating needs of the market strategies as well as business plans. Forecasts are very appropriate in the short-term operations and it has proved to be of a great help to businesses managers. In addition, forecasting has also emerged as the most appropriate managing tool used mainly in planning day-to-day details operations for the subsequent week. Just like the operating budget, forecasts focuses to the future as well as supporting in administrative detailed planning of the operations for the future (subsequent week and month).For instance, when the business is preparing for the operations of the…

Work Cited

Cetron, Marvin J. & Christine A. Ralph, (1971). Industrial Application of Technological Forecasting. Its utilization in R & D. management. New York Wiley Interscience.

Chambers, John C., Satinder. K, Mullick & Donald D. Smith. (1974). An executive Guide to Forecasting. New York. Wiley.

Wheelwrite, Steven C. And Spyros Makridakis, (1973). Forecasting Methods for management. New York, Wiley.

Wolfers, Justin and Eric Zitzewitz, (2004). "Prediction Markets," Journal of Economic Perspectives, 18 (2): 107-126.

2.- Perform repetitive activities automatically). The change was necessary as the construction market in the Northern Europe is very competitive. The annual growth rate is less than 4% and the market is segmented in many medium-sized companies.

NCC's competitors in the Nordic markets are: Peab of Sweden and Skanska.

Peab used a free cash flow model for the company's valuation. This model discounts future free cash flows and future financing flows to compute the value of shareholder equity. This is done by first computing the value of net operational asset and net financial obligations. The model is used together with a so called "residual operational income model" that discounts future residual income flows and future residual net expenses (Aveholt and Nordby, 2005).

Beers Skanska, the parent company from U.S. implemented PeopleSoft EnterpriseOne in 1999 to centralize the treasury activity on the American territory. The system allowed for payroll cost reduction,…

Reference List

Annica Gerentz, (2007) "Market and Competitors - Boom in Nordic Construction Sector," NCC corporate Website:  http://www.ncc.info/templates/printPage.aspx?id=4683 .

Aveholt, Marcus and Jenny Nordby, (2005) "Peab - Equity Research Report," Uppsala University, Department of Business Studies.

Opus Capita Case, (2006) "NCC is building on reliable analyses - Improved Cash forecasting," Opus Capita Journal.

Management of CASH FORECASTING

ules for Effective Forecasting:

The main goal of forecasting is to identify the complete range of probabilities facing a society, organization, or the entire world. Forecasting is a process based on prediction and a major process in determining the future and how to prepare for it. This process of forecasting is based on the myth of accurate prediction, which is based on the assumption that forecasting is achievable in a world with preordained events and that the present does not impact the future. Since prediction is centered on determining future certainty, forecasting should focus on identifying the whole range of probabilities rather than a limited set of illusory certainties. Therefore, the major task or responsibility of the forecaster is to chart uncertainty in attempts to recognize the full range of possibilities.

In his article, Paul Saffo demystifies the process of forecasting in order to assist executives to become complicated and…

References:

Saffo, P. (2007, July-August). Six Rules for Accurate Effective Forecasting. Harvard Business

Review, 85(7-8), 122-131.

Saffo, P. (2007, July-August). Six Rules for Effective Forecasting. Harvard Business Review, 1-

11. Retrieved from  http://www.usc.edu/schools/annenberg/asc/projects/wkc/pdf/200912digitalleadership_saffo.pdf

Demand Forecasting

Wilkins Water Control Products, a Zurn Company: An Analysis of Current Demand Forecasting

Current Demand Forecasting

Any manufacturing company must try to find a way to maximize its profitability by minimizing production costs while at the same time maximizing sales potential. What this means is that a company must make sure that it produces enough units to meet demand while at the same time not over-producing and leaving itself with units -- which represent an investment of time and materials, i.e. money -- that it cannot sell (Armstrong & Green 2006). Determining optimum production levels can be a complex task, and must take into account a diverse range of considerations including materials cost, labor cost, and differences created based on economies of scale (generally speaking, the more units a firm produces, the lower the per-unit cost becomes) (Armstrong & Green 2006). Equally important for many manufacturers, especially makers…

References

Armstrong, J. & Green, K. (2006). Demand forecasting. In Strategic Marketing Management: A Business Process Approach. New York: McGraw Hill.

StatSoft. (2011). Demand forecasting. Accessed 1 April 2011.  http://www.statsoft.com/textbook/demand-forecasting/ 

Wilkins. (2011). Accessed 1 April 2011.  http://www.zurn.com/operations/wilkins/pages/home.asp 

Chart1

These inventions were predicted to have high social effects also. (Characteristics, History, and Importance of Technological Forecasting) Over the years the government decided to make its role permanent through an office of Technology Assessment as permitted by the Technology Assessment Act. The aim of this office was to provide congress with all required information for support, management and regulation of applied technologies. This shows the great interest that the government has developed in technological forecasting and methods of forecasting and that has led to greater interest among the general public in the matter.

Business Model for technology development companies

There is no technology that has continued to develop permanently, but some organizations concentrate on development of technology. For these organizations it is important to have a capacity for technology forecasting. A case of the development of solid state technology, which started in the 1950s led to its application in different…

References

Characteristics, History, and Importance of Technological Forecasting" Retrieved at http://www.wiley.com/college/dec/meredith298298/resources/addtopics/addtopic_s_02b.html. Accessed 10 August, 2005

Kar, Elisabeth van de; Duin, Patrick van der. (2004) "Dealing with uncertainties in building scenarios for the development of mobile services" Proceedings of the 37th Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences. Retrieved at http://csdl2.computer.org/comp/proceedings/hicss/2004/2056/03/205630077a.pdf. Accessed 10 August, 2005

Meng, Hshien-Chung. (Oct.28-Nov.1, 2003) "Innovation Cluster as the National

Competitiveness Tool in the Innovation Driven Economy" NIS International Symposium, Seoul. Retrieved from www.stepi.re.kr/stepidb/consult/downadd.asp?no=2Accessed 10 August, 2005

However, even if the POS system is extremely important in determining customer features, the information provided by this system does not suffice in making accurate sales forecasts. Therefore, the information from the POS system is combined with information provided by statistics that refer to production costs, prices introduced by suppliers, and macroeconomic forecasts.

There are numerous variables that can be used in estimating daily sales. Given the fact that the company's activity is focused on its customers, variables regarding them are the most used predictors of daily sales in the restaurant industry. Such variables that apply to customers are represented by the age, the gender, the lifestyle, the incomes, preferences regarding music, clothes, food, drinks, leisure time of customers. Some of this information can be gathered by the POS system, but other information mentioned above must be obtained from customers, if they approve with it. Therefore, the company can develop…

1. Devcic, J. (2011). Weighted Moving Averages: The Basics. Investopedia. Retrieved March 15, 2011 from  http://www.investopedia.com/articles/technical/060401.asp#13002055845312&close .

2. Regression Analysis (2011). Value-Based Management. Retrieved March 15, 2011 from  http://www.valuebasedmanagement.net/methods_regression_analysis.html .

3. McCarthy, M. (2011). The Benefits of Moving to a Point of Sale System. Retrieved March 15, 2011 from  http://www.allbusiness.com/retail/10206841-1.html .

Industry Forecasting

Forecasting Automobile Sales

In the United States (U.S.) an automobile seems to be a household necessity for most families in most parts of the country. In some urban areas of the country an automobile is considered a luxury, because of public transportation.. Although automobile is a necessity for families in most parts of the country, forecasting sales is a difficult task. Forecasting automobile sales in the current economy is extremely difficult mainly because of the uncertainty of the job market and the rising price for gas.

Marketing

When marketing a product, the four most important factors in successful marketing are price, product, promotion and position. The trends in the market will influence each of these four marketing strategies. Trends in the market will change the price of the product, directly correlating to sales. Demands in the market will change the product; suppliers alter their products to meet the…

References

Congressional Budget Office, Congress of the United States. (2008). Effects of gasoline prices on driving behavior and vehicle markets Washington, DC: CBO. Retrieved from  http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/88xx/doc8893/01-14-GasolinePrices.pdf 

Constantinides, E. (2006). The Marketing Mix Revisited: Towards the 21st Century Marketing. Journal of Marketing Management. 22 (3/4) 407-438.

J.D. power automotive forecasting. (2011). Retrieved from  http://www.jdpowerforecasting.com/downloads/GDS%202009.pdf 

Marketing (2007). Marketing. Encyclopedia of Small Business. 2 723-727.

This is shown in table 1.

Table 1; Calculations to create the index

1

2

3

4

Month

Average

Year 1

Year 2

Year 3

Year 4

1

39,600

0.45

1.14

1.51

0.90

2

37,080

0.53

1.25

0.83

1.38

3

30,000

0.52

0.74

1.59

1.15

4

59,210

0.91

0.70

1.25

1.15

5

64,375

1.29

0.71

0.94

1.06

6

57,750

1.26

0.72

0.96

1.06

7

47,370

1.17

0.84

0.68

1.32

8

56,638

1.01

1.13

0.68

1.17

9

29,855

0.52

1.59

0.84

1.05

10

39,638

0.70

1.09

1.29

0.92

11

27,323

0.78

1.44

1.16

0.61

12

19,350

0.88

0.53

1.61

0.98

With the creation of the index for each moth, this may then be used to assess the most likely demand. The most appropriate method is the use of the least square regression. This uses the data from the previous years and places them on a graph, drawing a straight line through…

References

O'Connell, Richard; Koehler, Anne, (2004), Forecasting, Time Series, and Regression, South Western Collage Publishers

Shmueli, G, (2012), Practical Time Series Forecasting: A Hands-on Guide, CreateSpace Independent Publishing Platform

The forecast function in Excel prevents the need for drawing the graph

Specifically, those committed to attacking this country have already stated their intention to acquire and detonate a nuclear device on American soil, and Osama bin Laden has said that he intends to kill as many as four million Americans, and that doing so is authorized by Islamic rules because Allah allows the defense of Islam, even if that means killing innocent civilians in large numbers (Allison, 2004).

The intelligence community is actively engaged in monitoring multiple sources of information, and by every indication publicized by federal agencies, the threats to American security are credible. That is why the U.S. has consolidated all 15 intelligence agencies into single National Security Council (NSC) to ensure that all relevant leads are shared among the different entities responsible for preventing future terrorism in the United States.

eferences

Allison, G. (2004) Nuclear Terrorism: The Ultimate Preventable Catastrophe. New…

References

Allison, G. (2004) Nuclear Terrorism: The Ultimate Preventable Catastrophe. New York: Henry Holt.

57
Spillover Effect on the Stock Market and Bond Prices in Relation with GARCH
Abstract
This study examines the spillover effect between bond and stock markets in the U.S. using GARCH. The finding of a unidirectional spillover flow from bonds to stocks in the U.S. is discussed in the light of new marketplace variables that have been introduced into the markets in the previous decade. These variables include the rise of HFT, algorithm-driven trading, and central banking interventionism via unconventional monetary policy. The effect on forecasting volatility, price and return of asset classes, studied through the lens of other commodity price movement and volatility—such as oil and gold markets—creates a compelling picture for why GARCH models may need to be reworked to incorporate new data regarding the new ways in which the 21st century marketplace is using technology and central bank interventionism to shape market movements and market outcomes.
Table…

Forecasting is the process of predicting the future based on the past data. Typically, forecasting uses the statistical technique employing different methods such as time series, moving average, linear regression and exponential smoothing. The study uses the 15-year dataset of IBM (International Business Machine) revenues from 1999 to 2016 fiscal years. The study collects large dataset because of the larger the dataset, the better the accuracy of the results.

The researcher collects revenue data of the IBM between 1999 and 2016 from the Statista (2016) website, and the dataset used for the analysis is as follow:

Revenue ($Billion)

Different methods are used for the forecast. The linear regression, exponential smoothing and moving average are used for analysis.

Linear Regression

The linear regression is the forecasting technique that assists in enhancing the relationship between dependent and independent variables. The benefits of the linear regression is that it assists in providing accurate…

" In these types of organizations where only a few large customers are served, predicting sales based on first-hand knowledge of the customers can be an effective forecasting method.

A survey of customers involves asking customers about their future intentions. One of the benefits of this method is that it allows for an overview of all customers, rather than focusing on several select customers. The second benefit is that it gains information by going directly to the buyer. This method is best used in markets where consumer behavior and consumer perceptions drive the market (Neal, Quester, & Hawkins 1999, p. 1.5). This includes the fashion industry, the entertainment industry, as well as many service industries.

The historical analogy method is based on recognizing that similar products will often follow similar growth patterns. This method is used to predict the future sales of new products. This method is best used in…

References

Baker, M.J. (1999). The IEBM Encyclopedia of Marketing. London: International Thompson Business Press.

Neal, C., Quester, P., & Hawkins, D. (1999). Consumer Behavior: Implications for Marketing Strategy. Boston, MA: Irwin/McGraw-Hill.

Perreault, W.D., & McCarthy, E.J. (2000). Essentials of Marketing. Boston, MA: Irwin/McGraw-Hill.

Sales Forecasting

Forecasts, budgets and evaluations are critical for business for a few different reasons. The first is that it allows for better allocation of firm resources. By using forecasts, managers are able to ensure that the firm is able to meet demand where it exists, and not have resources being wasted where it isn't. New product managers may prefer to operate without forecasts, but the process of building a forecast can provide a lot of insight into the product's potential. here that potential lies and how best to tap into it are two key components of the new product launch strategy. This is especially true in organizations with finite resources. The company may not be able to pursue all projects at all times, so as a result must make decisions about resource allocation. It is only possible to do this effectively with proper forecasts. Even outside of new projects,…

Works Cited:

Aviv, Y. (1999). Gaining benefits from joint forecasting and replenishment processes: The case of auto-correlated demand. Manufacturing and Service Operations Management. Vol. 4 (1) 55-74.

Donnelly, T. (2011). 7 tips for improving your sales forecasting. Inc. Magazine. Retrieved November 11, 2011 from  http://www.inc.com/guides/201105/tips-for-improving-sales-forecasting.html

This includes increased training programs, such as the recent training activity by al Qaeda in Afghanistan that was covered on the media and al Qaeda said was directed toward America and American allies.

Another indicator could be the time between attacks. Since it is a given that terrorist organizations will continue to attack their "enemies" whenever it is possible, and their aim is to do the most possible damage, it should be a conclusion that terrorist attacks will continue, and that as time passes between attacks, the probability grows that another attack will take place. If terrorists wait too long between attacks, their message becomes diluted, and their ability to continue attacks comes into question. Thus, the time frame between attacks, as it grows, is a good indicator that another attack is growing more likely.

eferences

Khalsa, S.K. (2005). Forecasting terrorism: Indicators and proven analytic techniques. etrieved from the Intelligence…

References

Khalsa, S.K. (2005). Forecasting terrorism: Indicators and proven analytic techniques. Retrieved from the Intelligence Analysis Web site: https://analysis.mitre.org/proceedings/Final_Papers_Files/106_Camera_Ready_Paper.pdf9 Oct. 2007.

The first set of problems is given by the necessity to reason and rationalize the context; the second set of problems is generated by the imperative necessity of reducing uncertainties and the third set of problems is determined by the existence of bounded speculation. The author argues that these issues are adequately addressed through the gradual completion of four distinctive sets of goals, as follows:

The complete understanding of the unknown

The ability to control the future results

The understanding of the entire system with the purpose of comprehending present conditions, and fourth

The development of an action plan for the immediate future (Choucri, 1974).

A next set of problems is given by the fact that forecasting international relations takes more variables into consideration, which subsequently increases the complexity of the process. "Because of the nature of the problems analyzed, the data used, and the constraints on rationality examined, the…

References:

Bobrow, D.B., 1999, Prospects for international relations: conjunctures about the next millennium, Wiley-Blackwell, ISBN 0631218297

Choucri, N., 1974, Forecasting in international relations: Problems and prospects, International Interactions, Vol. 1, No. 2

Freeman, J.R., Job, B.L., 1979, Scientific forecasts in international relations, International Studies Quarterly, Vol. 23, No. 1

Kissane, D., 2008, on the problems in and the possibilities for mapping international chaos, Selected Works,  http://works.bepress.com/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1016&context=dylankissane  last accessed on June 14, 2010

Percentage of Sales Method of Forecasting

In order to effectively anticipate market conditions, predict future sales, and make crucial adjustments to marketing and production strategies, the process of financial forecasting is used by management to ensure a firm enjoys sustainable growth. Financial forecasting methodologies typically begin with the generation of a detailed sales forecast, and while forecasting early-stage ventures is intrinsically more unpredictable than forecasting established firms, it is critical that the correct approach to building an accurate sales forecast is consistently employed. It has been widely established that because "sales forecasts drive the preparation of projected financial statements, the ability to project sales is accurately is crucial to a venture's financial health" (Leach & Melicher, 2011), which is why differentiating between the two primary sales forecasting methods is an important skill to develop. The percentage-of-sales forecasting method works under the assumption that the typical firm's balance sheets and income…

References

Keown, A.J. (2004). Foundations of finance: The logic and practice of financial management. (4th ed.). New York, NY: Prentice Hall.

Leach, J.C., & Melicher, R.W. (2011). Entrepreneurial finance. (4th ed.). Stamford, CT: Cengage Learning.

Insofar as many
of the nations now impacted so drastically by the food scarcity crisis are
also those developing theatres in which globalizing companies have sought
to operate, it is becoming more difficult all the time to find an
appropriate context for operation. Thus, organizations pursuing offshore
production interests, outsourced service laborers and overseas contract
management must immerse themselves in many settings where poverty,
instability and widespread suffering are all increasingly characteristic.
Forecasting organizational performance and opportunity under these terms is
marked by challenge.
So too is this case in navigating the uncertainties of legal policy
concerning environmental conditions. Under the Bush Administration, we
have experienced a significant decline in standard protections for both
dumping and emissions, due to the president's composition of ironically
entitled bills such as the Clean Air Act and the Clean ater Act. Both of
these, in spite of their titles, were marked for their historical…

Works Cited

Butler, M. (2008). Lessons from Biofuels. Greentech. Online at
 http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/lessons-from-biofuels-10-768.html 

Reuters. (2008). States sue EPA over ozone pollution standards. Thomson
Reuters. Online at
 http://www.reuters.com/article/environmentNews/idUSN2843108220080528

APPLE INC.

FULL TITLE GOES HERE

Apple Inc. Planning and forecasting

Methods of Forecasting

Over the previous many years, the forecasting power at Apple has taken on numerous diverse methods. In the days where Apple brand lines were more restricted, our marketplaces more recognizable, and Apple selling and delivery methods more uniform, they are able to afford to depend on direct contribution from suppliers and the corporation's own sales force. Apple products loaned themselves well to huge manufacturing, there was not a lot of inconsistency in arrangement, and the modification produced by having language detailed products was taken care of through buffer stock.

During the past three years, an intense shift has happened in the way Apple is speaking to the market, and in the demands the marketplace is placing on the business. The significant essentials of change are:

Apple's Demand for more unpredictability in configuration in expressions of memory,…

The best-known companies who are selling CM systems today on the SaaS platform include Salesforce.com, today a $1B company, ightNow Technologies and SugarCM both of which are growing at an average of 7% to 10% a year in revenue and new subscribers (Tsai, 2010).

How Trends Today Will eshape the Market Tomorrow

All of these trends of analytics, process-based application development, and SaaS platform development will accelerate the adoption and use of CM systems over time. In addition, the use of SaaS-based platforms is going to open up the use of customer information stored on social networks. In the next five years, social networks and CM applications will be tightly integrated together, providing more insights than ever before into customer needs, wants and preferences. The exponential growth of social networks and the wealth of customer data contained in them is also a dominant trend in the development of future generation…

References

Bernoff, J., & Li, C.. (2008). Harnessing the Power of the Oh-So-Social Web. MIT Sloan Management Review, 49(3), 36-42.

Lashar, J.. (2009, May). To SaaS or Not to SaaS? Customer Relationship Management, 13(5), 14-15.

Rapp, a., Trainor, K., & Agnihotri, R.. (2010). Performance implications of customer-linking capabilities: Examining the complementary role of customer orientation and CRM technology. Journal of Business Research, 63(11), 1229.

Jayanthi Ranjan, & Vishal Bhatnagar. (2008). Principles for successful aCRM in organizations. Direct Marketing, 2(4), 239-247.

Macroeconomic Forecasting

Federal Reserve Policy

he Federal Reserve through open market operations can be a net seller or buyer of U.S. reasuries. As a net seller of bonds the Fed is enacting policy which will tighten the money supply taking money out of circulation. he policy is conducted as follows: he Federal Reserve Open Market Committee instructs the trading desk at the New York Federal Reserve Bank to sell a specified amount of their holdings of U.S. reasuries. In doing so, investors will purchase these bonds from the FED through their currency or bank deposits, thereby reducing the amount of dollars held by the investor. he transaction reduces the money supply by a reduction in currency held by the public and reduced bank deposits. Consequently, banks will have fewer deposits and as a result "find themselves with a smaller quantity of reserves. In response, banks reduce the amount of lending,…

The 'Great Recession' prompted the Fed to take unusual steps including the initiation of short-term liquidity funding programs for financial institutions, credit markets, and investors including: "the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF), the Money Market Investor Funding Facility (MMIFF), and the Asset-Backed Commercial Paper Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility (AMLF)" (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve. N.D.). These facilities provided funding and liquidity to entities during and after the crisis which provided much needed stability. Perhaps the most unique step undertaken was the use of 'quantitative easing' designed to stimulate the economy. Because the fed funds rate had already been reduced to near zero, and with other interest rates at historic lows, the Fed expanded their balance sheet by buying over a trillion dollars of treasuries and mortgage backed securities. A second round of purchases known as QE2 began in the third and fourth quarter of 2010. The ostensible purpose of 'quantitative easing' is to bolster asset prices, increase the money supply, and reduce borrowing costs through lower interest rates, thereby growing the economy.

Economic Forecasts

Economic forecasts tend to be as varied as they are ubiquitous however, coming out of the recent recession there

Parkville Maryland

Parkville is located in the state of Maryland in the Baltimore metropolitan area. Parkville is mainly located in the County of Baltimore with parts of it in Baltimore City County. Parkville is bordered to the south by Carney, which is primarily in the City and to the north by Perry Hall, Hampton, Overlea, and Towson, to the west, north and east. There are several Pizza establishments in the area an indication of demand of the product. However, it is important to establish the demand of the product using statistical analysis. In conducting this analysis, it is critical to take into consideration the demographics of the area including population and income per capita.

According to the United States Census Bureau (2010), the population of Parkville had gone up to 69752 from 69100 over the past decade. The Median Household Income in Parkville is $54,373 and can be socio-economically referred…

Reference

Jian, S., & Yan, L. (2011). MGMT Panel. Guangdong University of Finance.

United States Census Bureau. (2010). Population Census. U.S. Population Report.

Wood, M. (2012, July 6 ). P values, confidence intervals, or confidence levels for hypotheses? Retrieved November 7, 2012, from  http://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/0912/0912.3878.pdf

Demographics of Raleigh, NC

Demographic and independent variables relevant to complete a demand analysis include population size and Average income per household. An area with a high population size is most likely to have potential for demand of products, According to the U.S. Census Bureau (2010) the there are 403,892 people in Raleigh, NC. In line with this, the population must be able to have disposable income to buy these products. The relationship between product demand and income is a good indicator of Gross Domestic Product. It is the broadest measure of income generated in the economy. However in demand analysis, personal or household incomes are useful. The income per capita of Raleigh is estimated at $29,771 (Sperlings Best Places, 2010). Therefore, it is critical for a serious business to consider these two demographic factors in demand analysis and estimation. The economy must be an active one in order for…

Bacon to develop a readiness for change in order to get the changes in place and to press for ongoing evaluation and for additional change as needed. He might have prepared his managers better for the fact that certain types of changes would be necessary, and now that they know what those changes are, he must keep the managers focused on the fact that change is needed because the system in place is not sufficient and has not provided the data needed. Given the nature of the resistance, he might make the need clear to his managers and solicit their recommendations, to be discussed and considered in the same type of forum as was sued for the reading of the first report. Had the managers been more directly involved from the first, they might have shown less resistance to the idea of change.

Indeed, that first meeting could have been…

References

Aston-Blair Inc. (1999). South-Western College Publishing. Provided.

Goodstein, L. & Butz, H.E. (1998, Summer). The linchpin of organizational change. Organizational Dynamics, 21-33.

Jansen, K.J. (2000). The emerging dynamics of change: Resistance, readiness, and momentum. Human Resource Planning, 23(2), 53.

Lei, D. Slocum, J.W., & Pitts, A.A. (1999, Winter). Designing organizations for competitive advantage: The power of unlearning and learning. Organizational Dynamics, 24-38.

This is demonstrated in figure 1, with the data shown and the regression line shown. The equation for the line can be used to forecast the demand for any point in the future.

Figure 1; Chart for month 1 with forcast and regression line

The line shown has the equation y = 0.0289x + 0.9278, where x is the year, so for year 5 the equation would be (0.0289x 5) + 0.9278 = 1.07. Thins can be repeated for each of the months.

The result of the equation gives the new index figure for the fifth year. To assess the level of inventory needed the index needs to be converted back to units: this in undertaken by multiplying the index by the base line for that month, as shown in table 2.

Table 2; Forecast for the winter inventory

Month

Average

Forecast Index

Forecast in Units

1

47,370

1.07

50,790…

References

Brockwell, Peter J; Davis, Richard a, (2010), Introduction to Time Series and Forecasting, Springer

Morlidge S, (2009), Future Ready: How to Master Business Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons

Global Warming DQs

The determination of human contribution to the observed variations in Earth's climate includes making difficult decisions about the issues of climate systems that vary naturally. This is based on the interactions among different atmosphere parts with other concepts from an underlying concept. The natural variations exist on time scales from different years and decades. Shorter time spans for data records permit performance negotiations while separating systematic changes from human activities including greenhouse gas emissions and production of aerosol particles within natural variations (Victor, 2011).

Various natural climate fluctuations such as seasonal cycles are simple to develop and account for because they occur within well-known and fixed time scales. The alternative natural climate influence such as the El Nino and recurring warmth of ocean waters in tropical Pacific Ocean are difficult to identify within climatic datasets. The concept of warming refrains from occurring at fixed time intervals and…

References

Archer, D. (2011). Global Warming: Understanding the Forecast. New York: John Wiley & Sons.

Victor, D.G. (2011). Global Warming Gridlock: Creating More Effective Strategies for Protecting the Planet. New York: Cambridge University Press.

Casper, J.K. (2010). Changing Ecosystems: Effects of Global Warming. New York: Infobase Publishing.

Dincer, I., Midilli, A., Hepbasli, A.T., Karakoc, H. (2009). Global Warming: Engineering Solutions. New York: Springer Science & Business Media.