The outlook was very negative in August and September -- there were some serious issues such as the debt ceiling debate that could have been responsible for the strong negative outlook. The outlook has turned slightly positive of late though, an encouraging sign.
Overall, the data provides a mixed signal about the state of the economy. The major headline numbers -- GDP and unemployment -- are improving. This is supported by the FOMC's statement, which has shown that rates are going to stay low. However, there are some mixed signals in the other data, including CPI, real earnings and durable goods orders.
The type of number of course is important. Some of the numbers are more sensitive than others,...
The Philadelphia survey, for example, is regional and subjective, which makes it a less useful indicator. Such data is important to have, but it is not as important as the hard quantitative data that is nationally based. That type of data is typically more important for determining the course of the U.S. economy. So once some of the less important data are excluded, the headline-type numbers show a generally improvement trend in the U.S. economy. Even the decline in the CPI might not be bad, because if that is the result of lower gas prices rather than actual deflation, then that is something that will benefit the economy overall as well.
