An industry ratio of debt-to-equity is 0.55, compared with 0.98 in the industry, which is favorable for HP. The ratio of long-term debt to total capitalization confirms what the raw data on the balance sheet says about HP's long-run escalation in debt. This ratio is currently 27.3%, compared with 25.6% in 2009, 16.5% in 2008, 11.5% in 2007 and 6.1% in 2006. This indicates that HP has been increasing its use of debt steadily over the past five years. While its current levels are no cause for alarm, the long-term trend of using debt to expand the company is cause for alarm. HP's long-term solvency is confirmed in the times interest earned, which was 22.7 times for 2010, up from 14 times for 2009. The conclusion of this assessment is that HP carries no bankruptcy risk for the foreseeable future. It is underperforming the industry on many measures, but some of the world's most successful firms financially are in this industry. HP is solvent and liquid, and while it has suffered somewhat in recent years this is largely because of its emphasis on the corporate customer. The economic downturn has reduced demand from corporate customers and this has had a negative impact on HP's financials. As such, the trend of declining financial metrics is not expected to continue over the long run. The company's beta is 1.03, which again indicates that it is relatively stable. Given its size and corporate customer base, HP's strong correlation to market returns is not surprising.

Material Changes

Hewlett Packard is a relatively stable company. There were no material changes -- as defined by a 20% change -- in any material item on the income statement. On the balance sheet, there were a couple of significant changes. The first was a near sextupling of short-term notes payable. This is not extraordinary, however, as this...

A similar phenomenon can be observed with the current portion of long-term debt, which also moved more than 20% last year, but always moves more than 20%. Deferred income tax increased 23.8% last year, but this is a long-term trend. The deferred income tax was zero five years ago and has increased to $5.2 billion in four years. This indicates that the company is adding liabilities that it normally would not, in an attempt to retain profitability. While this raises red flags, a bigger cause for alarm would be if the company did not pay this down when the economy improves.
There are usually large changes on the statement of cash flows, in particular in investing and operating. In HP's case, there were no material changes in the operating cash flows, which is the most important item. The company issued a significant amount of debt in two of the past three years, and paid off only a little last year. 2009 saw a disruption in the long-run trend of increasing equity buybacks, likely owing to the recession's impact on the firm's cash flows. These buybacks can serve to prop up the stock price.

The lack of material changes is indicative o the firm's stability. While the economic downturn has taken its toll on many of the firm's key performance measures, HP is so large that it is unlikely to have major changes in any major line items, unless it engages in a sizeable restructuring. The company earns much of its money on servicing contracts and long-term relationships, and this has helped with stability as well. The major point of concern is that most of the negative trends in the company's numbers began before the recession was underway. This calls into question whether the decline in performance…