Keeping Canadians Safe During a Global Pandemic

M E M O R A N D U M

To: Marc Garneau, Minister of Foreign Affairs

From: Wayne Easter, Chair, House of Commons Finance Committee

Subject: Recommendations and Rationale in Support of a Structured and Systematic Reopening of the Canadian-U.S. Border by September 2021

Summary: The Canada-U.S. border was closed in March 2020 in an effort to stem the spread of the Covid-19 virus (Moetaz, 2021); however, the continued closure of the Canadian-U.S. border to nonessential travel due to Covid-19 pandemic concerns has severely diminished tourism revenues (Fox, 2021). Despite the significant economic impact this closure has already exacted, however, it is vitally important that the Canadian-U.S. border remained closed to travel and tourism until virus positivity rates and other conditions have improved and are adjudged safe by the scientific community.

Recommendations:

1. The Prime Minister should resist calls to reopen the Canadian-U.S. border immediately and consider extending the closure until September 2021.

2. The Canadian-U.S. border should reopen at the earliest opportunity, but only when satisfactory assurances have been received from the health care community that it is safe to do so; at present, these safety considerations include ensuring that at least 75% of all U.S. adults have been vaccinated against the Covid-19 virus (Fox, 2021).

3. Ensure that continued vigilance is in place that will alert Canadian health care authorities in the event conditions change after the border is reopened so that appropriate protective measures can be taken in response, including reclosing the Canada-U.S. border.

Background:

The United States is Canada’s largest trading partner by far and also an important source of travel and tourism revenues. Indeed, prior to the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic, Canada was visited by more than 5 million U.S. tourists in the fourth quarter of 2019 who contributed nearly $2 billion in revenues to the Canadian tourism industry (Visitor spending in Canada, 2021). These contributions include expenditure for accommodations, food and beverages, recreation and entertainment, clothing and gifts, transportation and other spending (Visitor spending in Canada, 2021).

Travel and tourism revenues therefore affect all sectors of the Canadian economy, but they are especially important for major urban centres such as Vancouver which accounted for 20% of total revenues (or $758 million), Toronto which accounted for nearly as much with $680 million in revenues (or 18% of total spending) and Montreal where international tourists spent $448 million (or 12% of total revenues) in the furth quarter of 2019, just prior to the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic (Visitor spending in Canada, 2019).

Considerations:

Although the economic stakes are very high in this calculus, it is vitally important that the reopening of the Canada-U.S. border proceed in a structured and systematic fashion. Notwithstanding the billions of dollars that are involved, the health and welfare of Canadian citizens remains of paramount importance, far outweighing the severity of the economic impact that the border closure has caused both nations. Indeed, although adult vaccination rates in Canada and the United States are comparable at about 48% of the adult populations, the coronavirus infection rate for Canadians is a troubling 56% compared to just 12% for U.S. adults (Fox, 2021).

Yet another important consideration in reopening the Canada-U.S. border is the strong public opinion against a premature relaxation of the border closure. In fact, almost half of Canadians are currently opposed to an immediate reopening of the border and fully 75% are in favor of requiring U.S. visitors to show proof of coronavirus vaccinations prior to entry into Canada once the border is reopened (Moetaz, 2021). At present, a majority of Canadian citizens are in favor of extending the border closure until at least September 2021, and only if conditions warrant this reopening. Moreover, despite nearly 1.4 million active cases of Covid-19 and more than 25 thousand deaths, the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center reports that less than 53 thousand vaccine doses have been administered to Canadian citizens to date (Canada Covid-19 overview, 2021).

Resource Implications:

The continued loss of hundreds of millions of dollars in travel and tourism revenues from U.S. visitors is certainly an important consideration. Based on the historic travel and tourism revenues contributed by U.S. citizens to Canada’s tourism industries, it is reasonable to suggest that keeping the Canada-U.S. border closed costs Canada about $160 million a month, and extending the border closure until September 2021 would therefore cost the nation approximately $640 million in lost revenues, but these losses must be balanced against the safety of the Canadian public at large.

Communications Implications/Actions:

Because there are enormous sums of money involved, it is essential that the rationale for any extension in the closure of the Canada-U.S. border be communicated to the Canadian and U.S. public with the rationale in support of these measures. Therefore, besides using official communications to explain the underlying rationale, social media platforms should also be used to help promote widespread recognition of the importance of keeping the border closed until such time as conditions improve and health care authorities deem the reopening safe.

Parliamentary Implications/Actions: