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The first set of problems is given by the necessity to reason and rationalize the context; the second set of problems is generated by the imperative necessity of reducing uncertainties and the third set of problems is determined by the existence of bounded speculation. The author argues that these issues are adequately addressed through the gradual completion of four distinctive sets of goals, as follows:
The complete understanding of the unknown
The ability to control the future results
The understanding of the entire system with the purpose of comprehending present conditions, and fourth
The development of an action plan for the immediate future (Choucri, 1974).
A next set of problems is given by the fact that forecasting international relations takes more variables into consideration, which subsequently increases the complexity of the process. "Because of the nature of the problems analyzed, the data used, and the constraints on rationality examined, the task of forecasting in international relations may be more challenging. Uncertainty is higher at certain times in the foreign policy experience than is likely, for example, in the stock market […]. In foreign policy, the elements of surprise, secrecy, and pressure, associated with the highest of staked (national security) make the calculation of risk more difficult that in the setting of the economic marketplace" (Bobrow, 1999, p.17). The author subsequently identifies the lack of linearities in the forecasting of international relations, element which in turn implies increased forecasting complexities.
In other words, as history has shown, linearity does not characterize the international context as different countries will react...
And these individual reactions and contexts are determined by different causalities, which define the context of each individual situation. All these elements further enhance the complexity of forecasting international relations.
Finally, Dylan Kissane (2008) at the School of International Studies, University of South Australia, argues that the problems in forecasting international relations are pegged to the chaos in the international context, as well as to the high levels of interdependence among the various international players. The author argues that it is most advisable to reduce the problem of interdependence by "by first analyzing and then adopting techniques from natural sciences that have already encountered and adapted their approaches in integrate chaos" (Kissane, 2008). Ultimately then, it is necessary to accept the existence of chaos and to integrate its features within the forecasting of international relations.
References:
Bobrow, D.B., 1999, Prospects for international relations: conjunctures about the next millennium, Wiley-Blackwell, ISBN 0631218297
Choucri, N., 1974, Forecasting in international relations: Problems and prospects, International Interactions, Vol. 1, No. 2
Freeman, J.R., Job, B.L., 1979, Scientific forecasts in international relations, International Studies Quarterly, Vol. 23, No. 1
Kissane, D., 2008, on the problems in and the possibilities for mapping international chaos, Selected Works, http://works.bepress.com/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1016&context=dylankissane last accessed on June 14, 2010
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