Technology, High Tech, and Exponential Change

Technology (a) Technology is "the branch of knowledge that deals with the creation and use of technical means and their interrelation with life, society, and the environment, drawing upon such subjects as industrial arts, engineering, applied science, and pure science" (Dictionary.com, 2014). 1)(b) High-technology is "scientific technology involving the production or use of advanced or sophisticated devices especially in the fields of electronics and computers" (Merriam-Webster, 2014). 1)(c) A can opener, an electric can opener, and a radio are all examples of technology.

They involve mechanical parts and some simple electronics or electronics that have been in use for a substantial period of time, and are not considered advanced or sophisticated.

A 3D printer, a drone, a satellite radio, and a 3D TV all rely upon advanced computer technology to work and would be examples of high technology because they would be unable to work without supporting advanced technology and, even though a satellite radio may be in common usage, they cannot be used without satellite technology, which cannot be simulated by an end-user.

Fax machines and nuclear submarines occupy an unusual area; both have some complex electronics that rely on computer end electronics, and there are versions of them that employ cutting-edge technology, however they have existed for decades and can be run without employing newer technologies. (2) In fact, devices like nuclear submarines and fax machines help highlight how rapidly technology is changing in 2014 when compared to the prior century because they show a merger between 20th century technology and 21st century technology.

The changes in technology have not been linear in 2014, but exponential. At this point in time, some forecast that "within a few decades, machine intelligence will surpass human intelligence, leading to The Singularity- technological change so rapid and profound it represents a rupture in the fabric of human history" (Kurzweil, 2001). Not only is technology created more quickly in 2014, but it is also adopted more quickly.

So, while the early 21st century may not have seen the development of a world-changing technology like the automobile, it has seen the rapid adoption of new technologies. One thing that these rapid changes make clear is that it is virtually impossible to predict new and emerging technologies; things that are now considered commonplace were once dismissed as impossible.

(3) The fact that currently used technology was once dismissed as impossible is one of the critical thinking approaches that one might use to evaluate claims for and against the hypothesis that aliens have visited the Earth.

The first thing to do is consider the nature of the evidence being presented to support those claims: do the sources appear authentic; what are the qualifications of any experts offering advice; and are there limitations on the access to the information (Scientific American, 2000)? Perhaps most importantly, people should take information and make their own conclusions based on that information, rather than taking others conclusions and then looking for the information to support that conclusion.

What this does is allow a person to assess the information to come to a conclusion, even if that conclusion might be disruptive or disturbing. 4)(a) In fact, it is important to consider the fact that sometimes discoveries or innovations can be very disruptive. One potentially disruptive emerging technology is Apple's planned iWatch. The ubiquitous presence of cell phone and wireless technology has made it virtually impossible to escape from technology. While this has had a number of benefits, it has also been very disruptive in many ways.

For example, the work day has been extended because people are always available. Likewise, people fail to put sufficient effort into work because they are on their phones. This would be magnified by a wearable technology like a watch, which would be constantly present on the user. (b) The potential disruptive impact on Apple is minimal because Apple has been known for taking existing technology and perfecting it for commercial success. The industry would be disrupted, but not the technology industry.

On the contrary, if the iWatch became successful, it could challenge the existing watch industry. However, because watches are considered a fashionable accessory, it seems unlikely that Apple would ever monopolize that market. For users, the potential disruption could be a continuation of the dependence on technology and the removal from actual human interactions.

(c) It is difficult to determine what place the iWatch has in the technology life cycle now; it is in development but is not scheduled for a hard release date, though it will clearly be released in 2015 (Apple, 2014). It seems unlikely that Apple will release it until it believes it will be a commercial success.

If the iWatch follows the pattern of the iPhone and the iPad, within five years it will dominate the market for wearable technology, but it will also spawn a number of non-Apple products with similar functionality. 5(a) The iWatch example helps explain how established firms are able to transition to a radical technology when that technology is competence-enhancing but fail to do so when it is competence destroying. Apple was not the first company.