Emergency Management Planning for Climate Change Risks

Introduction

"Climate change is a hoax [invented by China]."
— President Donald J. Trump, July 2019

The epigraph above underscores the fundamental differences that exist between members of the scientific community and many leading policymakers today. Even as the polar ice caps continue to melt at an alarming rate and rising ocean levels inundate low-lying coastal regions and islands around the world, climate change debunkers argue that current changes in the climate are transitory and simply part of the earth's natural systems. Against this backdrop, it is clear that emergency managers face a number of significant challenges in preparing for climate change-associated risks — including, most especially, the need to overcome misguided and misinformed views about these potential risks to communities across the country.

The purpose of this paper is to provide a review of the relevant literature addressing the question: "When you enter the field, what can highly educated individuals do to ensure they are informed about and planning for all high-risk hazards, climate risks included?" To this end, an examination of the current issues facing emergency managers planning for climate risks is followed by a discussion of success stories in climate risk planning and a description of how those successes were achieved. Finally, an assessment of how this information can be applied in an emergency management career is followed by a summary of key findings in the conclusion.

Challenges Facing Emergency Managers Planning for Climate Risks

Despite a growing body of scientific evidence confirming that climate change is a reality, many policymakers and public officials still maintain that the phenomenon is either not real or has been exaggerated far beyond its potential risks. This means that convincing stakeholders of the need to prepare for different types of climate-related risks may be problematic, especially if a given community has never experienced an anthropogenic or natural disaster in the past. Indeed, even under optimal circumstances, emergency managers may fail to account for all of the different types of climate-related risks involved.

In recent decades, changes in climate have caused impacts on natural and human systems on all continents and across the oceans. Consequently, the types of risks associated with climate change depend in large part on the geographic location of affected communities. Some communities face far greater risk from certain types of disasters — such as flooding in low-lying regions or severe weather in Tornado Alley — but climate change is also introducing a number of novel risks that make the planning process especially challenging. According to a study by the IPCC Working Group II (2014), "In many regions, changing precipitation or melting snow and ice are altering hydrological systems, affecting water resources in terms of quantity and quality" (p. 1).

Beyond these considerations, emergency managers are also faced with the potential for new types of disasters arising from a complex interaction between the environment and infrastructure. The IPCC Working Group II emphasizes that "Differences in vulnerability and exposure arise from non-climatic factors and from multidimensional inequalities often produced by uneven development processes. These differences shape differential risks from climate change" (p. 1). Another issue facing emergency managers today is the fact that several types of climate-related risks can result from the interrelationship between infrastructure and the environment, including the increased frequency of droughts, heat waves, and wildfires. These trends highlight the current vulnerability of communities to a wide array of potential climate-related risks (IPCC Working Group II, 2014). Moreover, the risks associated with climate change are further exacerbated in regions experiencing violent conflict, and the negative effects of disasters for these communities can have broad-based and far-reaching consequences (IPCC Working Group II, 2014).

The types of climate-related risks caused by the interaction of climate-related hazards and human and natural systems span the entire gamut of adverse short- and long-term negative impacts. Taken together, it is clear that emergency managers in communities of all sizes and geographic locations have much to consider when planning for climate-related risks. As the IPCC Working Group II (2014) concludes, "Responding to climate-related risks involves decision making in a changing world, with continuing uncertainty about the severity and timing of climate-change impacts and with limits to the effectiveness of adaptation" (p. 3).

Although some communities face greater risk of suffering from a climate-related disaster, no community is completely safe from these types of events. This means that emergency managers must not only identify and formulate appropriate plans for the most likely disaster events, but also assess the potential for new types of disasters to occur due to unprecedented changes in the climate. While persuading community members to plan for well-known and recurring disasters — such as tornadoes in Tornado Alley or flooding in New Orleans — may be fairly straightforward, emergency managers may face significant resistance when they propose spending scarce taxpayer resources on climate-related risks that have not yet occurred. As Mickus (2017) notes, "The science of climate change is not easy reading nor readily understood by people outside the field. Weather events may already be influenced by climate change" (p. 111).

As the growing body of scholarship confirms the reality of climate change and these findings become more widely disseminated, resistance to planning for new disaster-related events may diminish. However, it remains vitally important for emergency managers to take the initiative now. As Edwards (2013) points out, "Communities should evaluate the threat posed by climate change and determine the level of adaptation that is possible and cost-effective. Community stakeholders developing a climate adaptation plan need to include residents, emergency responders, local infrastructure agencies, scientists, and other levels of government" (p. 22). Fortunately, there have been some success stories across the country that can serve as salient examples of what can be done to mitigate the adverse effects of climate-related hazards.

Successes in Climate Risk Planning

One of the federal organizations that has taken the lead in helping communities plan for climate-related risks is the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). Despite some mixed results over the years, FEMA has succeeded in helping many states reduce their risk of experiencing climate-related disasters such as flash flooding. According to a report by Leven and Goldstein (2019), FEMA sent nearly $2 billion in taxpayer aid to several states over a given period to clean up and prepare for future events — funds drawn from just two of FEMA's major programs, representing only part of the disaster aid flowing to states. In addition, emergency planners in Kentucky have implemented a number of programs and initiatives to further mitigate the potential for future climate-related hazards.

Conclusion

The research was consistent in showing that climate change is introducing new types of hazards or exacerbating the potential for known hazards, so identifying all high-risk hazards associated with climate change represents a daunting enterprise. Nevertheless, it is possible to identify the most significant types of climate-related risks through collaboration with other government agencies, emergency responders, and members of the scientific community. In the final analysis, the emergency management steps taken today will have far-reaching implications for the rest of the 21st century, and emergency managers must remain cognizant of emerging climate-related threats.

References

Edwards, F. L. (2011, Spring). Symposium: Preparing for climate change. The Public Manager, 40(1), 20–25.

IPCC Working Group II. (2014). Assessing and managing the risks of climate change. Retrieved from https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/03/WGIIAR5_SPM_Top_Level_Findings-1.pdf.

Labadie, J. R. (2011). Emergency managers confront climate change. Sustainability, 3, 1250–1264.

Leven, R. & Goldstein, Z. (2019). Kentucky is among the states blocking climate action. As weather gets more extreme, its residents — and U.S. taxpayers — are paying a price. Public Integrity. Retrieved from https://publicintegrity.org/environment/one-disaster-away/a-dangerous-disconnect-disaster-prone-states/.

Mickus, J. (2017, June 1). A Sugar Creek chronicle: Observing climate change from a Midwestern woodland. Perspectives on Science and Christian Faith, 69(2), 110–114.

The Nature Conservancy. (2020). Pennsylvania climate solutions. Retrieved from https://www.nature.org/en-us/about-us/where-we-work/united-states/pennsylvania/stories-in-pennsylvania/pennsylvania-climate-solutions/.