Fertility Decline and Child Health in Britain, 1886–1938

Overview of Hatton and Martin's Study

Timothy J. Hatton and Richard M. Martin's Fertility Decline and the Heights of Children in Britain, 1886–1938 uses an exceptional survey conducted in 1930 to assess the relationship between fertility rates and the health of children in Great Britain. Hatton and Martin (2009) reveal that lower fertility rates have a direct impact on child health: lower fertility rates improve children's health, whereas higher fertility rates reduce it. The variables used to explain these outcomes are nutrition and disease, both of which are influenced by household size and family income.

Extrapolating these findings to the period between 1886 and 1938, Hatton and Martin conclude that the general health of children in Britain improved as a direct result of rising family wages, combined with a decrease in family size. They also argue that fertility rates represent an underexplored area in the analysis of health evolution.

Literature Review

John Bongaarts (2003) conducted a study across 57 emerging states and concluded that, as countries progressed from underdeveloped to developed economies, fertility rates declined. Additionally, as populations gained increased access to education, fertility also declined. Countries that developed economically but maintained high fertility rates were shown to be underdeveloped from an educational standpoint.

A 2003 study conducted by Tom Moultrie and Ian Timaeus reached a similar conclusion for African countries. Fertility rates had been dropping gradually since the 1960s. Notably, political pressures and instability also played a part in the reduction of fertility rates. Throughout the 1970s, national authorities had implemented family planning programs, which helped sustain the declining trend in fertility.

Another relevant work in the field, edited by Bollen, Glanville, and Stecklov (2001), focuses on the impact of the socioeconomic climate on fertility rates and child health in developing countries, assessing elements such as education, income, and social status. Interestingly, the three authors argue that "whether these specific parts mediate all of class's impact on other outcomes such as health and fertility is unknown" (Bollen, Glanville, and Stecklov).

The final work considered here is Caldwell and Schindlmayr's article (2003), which argues that fertility decline is a global trend. However, the two authors contend that no single universal explanation exists for this decline; each country has its own individual reasons and characteristics.

The general conclusion drawn from the literature is that fertility rates have been gradually decreasing across the globe. However, as the analysis of the specialized literature shows, most authors focus on the relationship between fertility and other elements — such as education, income, or the national level of economic development — rather than on the health consequences of fertility decline. Hatton and Martin's work is innovative in that it examines the impact of fertility, rather than its causes. Additionally, unlike previous researchers, they establish a relationship between fertility and child health.

Methodological Limitations

Fertility Decline and the Heights of Children in Britain, 1886–1938 makes a significant contribution to the literature by focusing on the impacts of fertility on child health, in a context in which most sources focus on the causes of declining fertility rates rather than their outcomes. While previous attempts had been made to answer questions relating fertility decline to individual health, the findings were generally inconclusive due to a lack of sufficient information.

In order to reduce this limitation, Hatton and Martin ground their research in a 1930 survey that assessed the living conditions and life circumstances of working families. The benefit of this approach is the addition of a new information source, which is highly useful in reaching a relevant conclusion. Nevertheless, this approach also reveals a major limitation: because the article relies primarily on a single survey, the results — however seemingly reliable — may be shaped by biases inherent to that source. In other words, the unique 1930 survey could have led the two authors to incorporate the biased views of earlier researchers, thereby reducing the objectivity and reliability of the ultimate findings relating fertility rates to overall health status.

A further limitation concerns the sample selected for analysis. Hatton and Martin examine the evolution of household income, fertility rates, and health within Great Britain over a limited time period (1886–1938). This creates two shortcomings. First, the data are historical and may no longer reflect current conditions; household incomes, fertility rates, and the incidence of serious childhood illnesses have all changed due to forces unrelated to education and income, such as cancer. Such changes over the past century could mean that the authors' results are no longer applicable in today's context.

Second, the research population is located exclusively in Great Britain. As Caldwell and Schindlmayr have demonstrated, each country reveals different reasons for and outcomes of declining fertility rates. Consequently, the results of Hatton and Martin cannot be extrapolated and applied at a global level.

Conclusion

The ultimate limitation is that the two authors express a strong confidence in their results, presenting their work as having clearly answered previously unanswered questions without acknowledging the need for further inquiry. A strong research work is generally expected to raise additional questions that would serve as the starting point for future studies. Despite these shortcomings, the research conducted by Hatton and Martin remains a valuable and interesting contribution to the specialized literature, chiefly because it presents a new approach to the issue of declining fertility rates — one that focuses on consequences rather than causes.

References

Bollen, K.A., Glanville, J.L., Stecklov, G., 2001, Socioeconomic Status and Class in Studies of Fertility and Health in Developing Countries, Annual Review of Sociology.

Bongaarts, J., 2003, Completing the Fertility Transition in the Developing World: The Role of Educational Differences and Fertility Preferences, Population Studies, Vol. 57, No. 3.

Caldwell, J.C., Schindlmayr, T., 2003, Explanations of the Fertility Crisis in Modern Societies: A Research for Commonalities, Population Studies, Vol. 57, No. 3.

Hatton, T.J., Martin, R.M., 2009, Fertility Decline and the Heights of Children in Britain, 1886–1938, Discussion Paper Series, IZA DP No. 4306.

Moultrie, T.A., Timaeus, I.M., 2003, The South African Fertility Decline: Evidence from Two Censuses and a Demographic and Health Survey, Population Studies, Vol. 57, No. 3.

Samaras, T.T., Elrick, H., 2002, Height, Body Size and Longevity: Is Smaller Better for the Human Body? Western Journal of Medicine, Vol. 176, No. 3.