Global Wealth, Life Expectancy, and Population Growth Patterns

Global Distribution of Wealth and GNP Outliers

The world's wealth is not distributed evenly. A few dozen wealthy nations are clustered in Western Europe, North America, and Japan. Greece and Portugal are notable outliers within their region, with low GNPs relative to their neighbors. A handful of nations outside these wealthy regions have GNPs that approach those of richer countries; most of these are Arab nations such as the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, and, to a lesser extent, Israel.

Singapore and Hong Kong are outliers in Asia for a couple of reasons. Both are city-states. Across Asia more broadly, GNP tends to be low because most Asian economies are heavily oriented toward the agricultural sector. Cities generate more wealth, but for larger nations this urban wealth is counteracted by the relative poverty of rural areas. Hong Kong and Singapore have no rural areas to offset their urban prosperity.

An additional factor shaping these two economies is their strong colonial heritage, which brought an orientation toward commerce, sound governance, the rule of law, and extensive trade contacts with wealthier nations. Hong Kong had a higher GNP than Singapore partly because it was still under British control when these statistics were compiled. Singapore has been independent from colonial rule since 1963 and independent from Malaysia since 1965. The colonial legacy in both cases included functioning legal systems and other institutional infrastructure that facilitates economic growth.

Libya is an outlier in Africa because of its oil wealth — the same factor that elevates Kuwait and the UAE in the Middle East. Most other African nations have either limited natural resources or poor control over those they possess. Because Libya controls its own oil reserves, its GNP is substantially higher than most of the continent.

It is worth noting that none of these outlier countries reaches the GNP levels of Western Europe, except for the southern European outliers themselves. Libya compares poorly to the small, oil-rich nations of the Middle East, but would rank as a middle-of-the-pack country if grouped within that region. It nevertheless holds a much higher GNP than Middle Eastern countries that lack a strong oil-based economy.

Life Expectancy Across Regions and Its Correlation with GNP

Singapore and Hong Kong, at the time of the survey, did not match the stronger economies of Western Europe. They were less economically developed than most Western European countries, comparable only to the lower-income nations in that region.

People living in different countries experience markedly different life expectancies. These differences are evident not only between regions but within regions as well, and they are highly correlated with GNP. In Eastern Europe, for instance, nations with similar GNP figures tended to have similar life expectancy figures. In Western Europe, where GNP differences between countries are sharper, the life expectancy outliers are the same countries that deviate on GNP — namely Greece and Portugal. Ireland was not as much of an outlier in life expectancy as it was in GNP. Norway was an outlier for male life expectancy, though less so for female.

Gender Differences in Life Expectancy and the Drivers of Birth and Death Rates

Among Asian countries, Hong Kong and Singapore again stood out, with notably higher life expectancies than other nations in the region. The strongest life expectancy outlier in Africa was Tunisia, a nation with a relatively low GNP — suggesting that factors beyond income, such as access to food, water, and historical medical traditions, also contribute to longevity.

Men and women do not share similar life expectancies. There is a strong association between male and female figures — nations with low male life expectancy also tend to have low female life expectancy — but in general, females live longer. Several explanations have been proposed, and no academic consensus has emerged. Men typically hold more dangerous occupations, even in developed nations. They also drink, smoke, and drive more than women. Men are more frequently victims of homicide and are disproportionately called upon to fight in wars (Rosenberg, 2007). Biological factors also play a role, as men's bodies often deteriorate faster with age.

Birth rates and death rates are only loosely correlated with each other. Because the drivers for each are different, the two figures can diverge significantly. Albania, for example, reports a death rate of 5.7 but a birth rate of 24.7. Both figures are outliers for the Eastern European group, giving Albania a very wide spread compared with its regional peers — figures more typical of a developing nation.

There is, however, a much stronger correlation between both birth rates and death rates individually and GNP. Nations with low GNP tend to have higher birth and death rates; those with high GNP tend to have lower figures for both. GNP influences death rates in at least two ways: wealthier nations generally provide better access to healthcare and clean water, and they tend to be less involved in armed conflict — resulting in lower mortality. One set of outliers consists of the North African nations, which have lower death rates than their sub-Saharan counterparts. This may stem from better access to food and underground water sources, as well as the historical medical knowledge passed down from ancient and Islamic traditions — influences that do not extend as strongly south of the Sahara.

Birth rates are shaped by GNP through a different mechanism. People in wealthier nations have better access to family planning, but more importantly they have retirement funds and pension systems. This reduces the economic incentive to have many children, since large families are no longer necessary to provide support in old age. The need for old-age care is one of the key drivers of high fertility in countries where death rates are also high and life expectancies are low — environments in which parents cannot be certain that all of their children will survive long enough to care for them.