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Counter Terrorism
Annotated Bibliography
Tikuisis, P. (2009). On the relationship between weak states and terrorism. Behavioral Sciences
of Terrorism and Political Aggression. 1(1): 66-79
The study examined the relationship between weak nation states and terrorism. The researcher engaged in this research because of the inconclusive nature of the studies in the discipline and more specifically the lack of empirical support for the relationship. The work examined two major hypotheses firstly "weak states experience a higher incidence of fatal terrorism than non-weak states, irrespective of major terrorist groups." Secondly, the "presence of major terrorist groups present a global security threat if the groups export their violence." Consequently the variables of interest to the researcher were weak states, fatal terrorism, terrorist incidents, and global security. The work identifies the odds of a state receiving an attack but it is unable to address the issue of predicting future trends or which types of states are most likely to become weak states. The author used the Failed State Index (FSI) to identify failed states this enhanced the validity or the work. Through the use of quantitative methodology aids supports the validity of the work as well as its reliability. The challenge to the works validity occurs because of the role given to violence in the FSI. The absence or presence of violence is insufficient to classify a state as failed or otherwise. The researcher found that close 50% of all failed states have terrorist attacks. This is exemplified by an odds ratio of 3:1 when compared to more stable states.
The practical value of the work lies in the ability to predict which states are more likely to have a terrorist attack. This prediction has implications for global security as countries could begin supporting states that are failing or close to failure. The support may not necessarily be financial since the study found that the economic condition of the state is not a critical concern for explaining fatal terrorist acts. If the most likely states receive intelligence and other support then it is possible to reduce the number of successful attacks. This reduction in attacks results in saving the lives of innocent persons who otherwise may have been killed in an attack. Additionally, it allows the government to make better use of limited security resources by deploying resources to areas where they can be most effective.
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