Economic Accounting Financial Information Statistical Analysis and Computer Business Information System CBIS Term Paper

Excerpt from Term Paper :

marketing data collected to analyze the economic performance of the Hideaway Hotel. It consists of annual and monthly economic data, a forecast of next year's performance, and an interpretation of statistical data gathered from the hotel's guests. It also includes a break-even analysis and suggestions to the firm that will help to restore its profitability.

Collect data on the main macro indicators and assess current macroeconomic conditions. Describe briefly the expected impact of these on sales and costs of the business.

The Economist Intelligence Unit expects continued fiscal operating surpluses over the next several years, but also maintains that increases in government spending are not likely as the government focuses on building up the new pension fund. This fund should put more money in the hands of pensioners, who regularly go on seaside vacations. The Economist expects GDP growth to slow from 2.7% in 2003 to 2.5% in 2004, but to increase to 3% in 2005. Consumer price inflation is expected to fall within the central bank's 1-3% target range. The current-account deficit will widen to 5% of GDP in 2003, but is forecast to narrow again to 4% of GDP by 2005.

In the year ending September 30th, 2002, many were discouraged from international trouble due to shaky world economic figures and the aftermath of the September 11th attacks. These have mostly subsided. In addition, the Euro's rapid growth against other currencies should be a benefit to the economies of Southeast Asia, Australia and New Zealand. The threat of terrorism attacks in Indonesia has made New Zealand seem to be a relatively 'safe' destination by comparison; New Zealanders and Australians are now less likely to travel to Indonesia for a vacation.

Consider and comment on the market structure The Hideaway Motel Limited operates under and the implications of this for management decision making

The Hideaway Motel, based on its food inventory and room rental reciepts, seems to target traditional Kiwis with traditional tastes. Despite the owners' experience in North Asia, they seem not to focus on offering a vacation experience that is competitive in terms of price or cuisine with packages available to vacationers from Taiwan, Singapore, and Hong Kong in places like Thailand. Consumers that vacation in Thailand typically seek an experience that is 'exotic' and showcase's the country's famous cuisine. By contrast, the Motel stocks crackers and spaghetti, suggesting that it is more likely to appeal to pensioners in their 60's. However, it is mentioned that international guests tend to predominate on the weekdays. Given that the owners have hospitality experience in countries such as Japan and Thailand, they might chose to offer a more varied cuisine. This sentiment is supported by comments that have been made about the Motel's kitchen.

Use the monthly data from the Excel spreadsheet provided to complete a breakeven/shutdown analysis for The Hideaway Motel Limited

Expenses at the Hideaway Motel never exceed 22 thousand a month and average 21,500. In the company's worst month, its expenses were approximately 21,400- outstripping revenues nearly eleven, thousand dollars. The breakeven point for the company can be approximated at the average expenses plus one standard deviation minus depreciation costs, or approximately 19 thousand dollars. Costs must be considered inelastic to revenues. Wages and salaries are the highest expenses, and represent an expense of nearly 12,500 a month or over 50% of total expenses.

Analyse these accounts and report on The Hideaway Motel Limited's profitability, liquidity and financial stability (you should also compare with the 2001 and 2002 financial accounts)

The Motel is only profitable between November and April, with revenues peaking at above 39 thousand in January. The Motel's liquidity varies vastly between the summer months and the winter months; between may and October the company consistently loses money. Surprisingly, wages remain the same during the winter despite the use of a part-time worker to handle cleaning. Losses experienced in June, July and August dwarfed the balance of the company's current account, suggesting that the company exists on borrowed time and money until revenues outnumber expenses again in the spring.

Using Microsoft Excel construct a model that would provide information on forecasted profits for the next two years. Your spreadsheet should contain relative and absolute references and at least one logical function. Two versions of the spreadsheet should be submitted. One version displaying results and the other displaying formulae within cells. The version displaying formulae should also display gridlines and row and column headings.

If we are to assume that sales will decrease in tandem with New Zealand's GDP and that all expenses except interest, wages, and depreciation increase by 2% (in tandem with the consumer price index, revenues will lag slightly in 2004. Because of the motel's razor-thin profit margins, this would result in a decline in profits of up to 7.75%. Profitability may suffer even further should Asian GDP growth fail to reflect that of New Zealand. There is a likelihood that many of the Motel's Asian vacationers will chose instead to visit America due to the spiraling cost of the dollar. On the other hand, price fluctuations could fail to reflect changes in the price index. However, these figures reflect a continued, gradual decline in the profitability of the motel. If profitability were to return to fy2001 levels, the motel would not experience the same array of problems.

Explain fully the probability sampling method you would adopt if you had to select such samples from each set of data provided. Provide a set of instructions that Annie and Tipene could follow if they were obtaining samples. Justify your choice.

The Descriptive Statistics function from Excel's Data Analysis menu was used extensively to analyze the data at hand. This provides means and standard deviations for selected groups of data. This function was used when assessing the number of adults, the number of children, the number of return visitors, the way that visitors ranked the Motel, and the differences between domestic and foreign consumption habits. In addition, this could be used to look at the difference between consumers that arrive in different months and the types of activities they consume.

Because of the small sampling size, I would adopt a population sampling method with replacement. This is most commonly used when the sample size is significant but less than 30. This methodology calculates the variance and standard deviation differently, subtracting one from the denominator. The STDEVP command is used to do this for the standard deviation of a population using excel. This will allow the owners to evaluate different values relating to respective countries' populations as these groups can be thought of in terms of segments of the market that maintain similar demographic preferences.

Fully analyse the information

One of the most remarkable features of the information is the lack of differentiation between the rental habits of New Zealanders and visitors to the country. Both New Zealanders and foreigners stayed an average of two days and were usually couples or families with one child. Those who rated the Motel gave it a modal rating of 3 on a scale of 1-5 with the mean being slightly below this number. Only 29 of the 200 visits recorded were return trips; this is disturbing considering the appeal that the Motel wishes to have when advertising to nearby Aukland. The average visitor only spent 1.965 days at the Motel, with the average New Zeander spent slightly over 2.1 days, indicating the popularity of the Motel as a weekend getaway. The low number of visitors, however, is disturbing.

All of the foreign guests seem to utilize the restaurant, but the qualitative data indicates that they are openly critical. Some of the inventory indicates that the food served might be too boring for weekend visitors. The preponderance of guests made use of the restaurant. Most of the guests…

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