Effect of Robust Satisficing on Students Selecting Colleges during Pandemic

ROBUST SATISFICING ON COLLEGE STUDENTS’ DECISION-MAKING 1

Effect of Robust Satisficing on Students Selecting Colleges during Pandemic

Introduction

Covid19 was first detected in Wuhan China in late 2020, leading to the declaration of a pandemic whose effects are likely to be felt for years to come (Appleby et al., 2022). The disease presents with mild to moderate respiratory disease symptoms including difficulty breathing, lingering chest pain, and a stubborn cough that starts within two weeks of getting infected. To prevent the virus from spreading, nations put in place measures such as the use of face coverings, regular hand washing, rubbing of hands using an alcohol-based sanitizer, and maintaining physical distance from others (Appleby et al., 2022). The measures imposed, coupled with the virus’ direct impact, profoundly affected well-being and daily life, increasing anxiety levels, and reducing access to leisure and other forms of socialization (Appleby et al., 2022).

As part of physical distancing requirements, colleges and universities introduced remote learning programs and cancelled crucial learning activities such as learning exchanges, laboratory courses, and field trips (Appleby et al., 2022). Students across the globe had their learning schedules and assessments disrupted, with some of the colleges forced to shut down after they were unable to withstand the effects of the pandemic. The pandemic had a huge impact on financial stability, job prospects, and educational opportunities that will be felt long into the future (Appleby et al., 2022). With the above structural changes, students experienced a dramatic change in campus life. This warrants the need for studies assessing the impact of the pandemic on students’ academic outcomes and overall wellbeing, including mental health and career prospects (Appleby et al., 2022).

This study examines the effects of the pandemic on one aspect of college life – the admission process into college. It pursues two research questions?

i) How did the Covid19 pandemic impact the admission process for college students?

ii) How did robust satisficing play a role during students’ decisions?

The main argument is that robust satisficing plays a crucial role in choosing a college major. The study findings will provide crucial insights on students’ experiences and concerns surrounding college admission during the pandemic, which will be beneficial in informing policies at the institutional level.

The rest of the paper is structured as follows. The section immediately following this introduction is a review of literature on the effects of the pandemic on college admission dynamics and the behavioural economics concept of robust satisficing. The third section is an interpretation of existing evidence as provided in the reviewed literature.

Chapter Two: Literature Review

This section reviews literature on the effects of the pandemic on students’ loans demand and college enrolment preferences.

Effects of Covid19 Pandemic on Student Loans

Porto et al. (2021) conducted a study to understand the dynamics of students’ borrowing to finance higher education. Using a sample of 1,298 responses collected from an online survey, the researchers sought to establish whether it was wise to take out a student loan to finance college education and the optimal amount a student should take out as loan. The findings showed that the amount of student loan one takes is influenced by the amount they borrow personally and whether or not their parents were college graduates (Porto et al., 2021). Students with running personal loan facilities and those whose parents were college graduates were more likely to take out larger student loans (Porto et al., 2021). Further, students who had already taken out a student loan were more likely to perceive the decision to obtain loans as wise and were likely to recommend higher loan amounts (Porto et al., 2021).

The study found that contrary to popular belief and expectations, most college students decide whether or not to take out loans based on realistic preferences and not the behavioural economics concept of anchoring (Porto et al., 2021). The researchers define the anchoring effect as the tendency to reach a decision or judgment based on pieces of irrelevant or arbitrary information (Porto et al., 2021). The study established that the participating college students relied on their life experiences when deciding whether to take out a loan and how much to take (Porto et al., 2021). The findings showed that the anchoring was less arbitrary and the decision to take a loan was primarily influenced by the willingness to pay (WTP), which was dependent on certain realistic factors such as the initial loan amount, amount of running personal loan, and satisfaction with the loans taken previously (Porto et al., 2021).

A study by Chien and Blagg (2021) supported the findings by Porto et al. (2021), showing that students’ decisions to take out loans during the Covid19 pandemic were influenced by realistic factors. Data from the National Student Clearinghouse (as cited in Chien and Blagg, 2021) showed that generally, the number of students seeking out loans to finance higher education reduced during theCovid19 pandemic in line with falling enrolments. Demand for undergraduate loans fell by 10 percent, while that of parent PLUS loans fell by 23 percent (Chien & Blagg, 2021). The decline in demand was steeper for first-time undergraduate enrolment, falling by 13.1 percent, and 21 percent among public two-year freshman enrolees (Chien & Blagg, 2021).

The study also found a decline in the loan amounts requested by students, which they attribute to the increased use of virtual learning platforms that made it possible for students to stay at home rather than on-campus (Chien & Blagg, 2021). According to Chien and Blagg (2021), the decline in loan demand could also be attributed to the rise in deferment rates among students who believe that virtual learning may not offer the same benefits as in-person learning In contrast, the demand for loans among postgraduate students increased over the same period by 3.6 percent, in line with rising enrolment rates (Chien & Blagg, 2021). However, the increase in loan demand among postgraduate students was not enough to offset the decrease in demand among undergraduates.

The study further established that demographic factors such as age and race influenced the demand for students’ loans during the pandemic. Students from white communities aged between 18 and 29 were more likely to borrow during the pandemic than those from non-white communities (Chien & Blagg, 2021). Further, students from white neighborhoods took out bigger loans than those from non-white neighborhoods during the pandemic (Chien & Blagg, 2021). The authors attribute this to the fact that white communities registered more college enrolments during the pandemic than non-white communities.

Effect of the Pandemic on College Selection and Majors of Interest

In their study seeking to determine the impact of the pandemic on students’ areas of study, Intelligence.com found that there was a significant shift in majors of interest among college freshmen joining during the pandemic from the popular degrees conferred in 2018-19 (Intelligence.com, 2021). 42 percent of students indicated that the pandemic influenced the selection of their college majors. Incoming college freshmen reported an increasing interest in courses around social and legal studies, communication technologies, architecture, and legal studies (Intelligence.com, 2021). At the same time, the study reported a declining interest in some traditionally popular courses such as English and literature, medicine, nursing, journalism and communication, fitness and leisure studies, business, visual and performing arts, public administration, firefighting, law enforcement, and Homeland Security (Intelligence.com, 2021). The authors associate the shift in course interests to the negative experiences of certain professionals such as medical care workers during the Covid19 pandemic.

The study found that students’ selection of a given course during the pandemic was influenced by multiple factors. For instance, 55 percent said they chose their courses because they were interested in the same, while 40 percent said that their choices were influenced by the massive layoffs they had witnessed during the pandemic (Intelligence.com, 2021). 30 percent of surveyed students mentioned that they chose a particularly major because it gave them an opportunity to make a positive societal impact (Intelligence.com, 2021).

Other studies have focused on the effect of the pandemic on college selection among freshmen during the pandemic. The findings by Kim et al. (2020) showed that more students changed their first-choice college options at the height of the pandemic, opting for schools closer home and in-state public colleges. Before Covid19, approximately 21 percent of college students had their first-choice colleges within 50 miles of their home, as compared to 32 percent in 2020, when the pandemic struck (Kim et al., 2020). Wills and Sandoval-Williams (2022) report similar findings – their study showed that a significant number of students migrated from their colleges to nearer colleges during the pandemic citing safety and cost concerns.

The study established that the states of Michigan, Louisiana, and Texas were the most self-contained states, implying that they attracted the highest numbers of in-state freshman students and had the highest numbers of students opting to remain in-state during the pandemic (Wills & Sandoval-Williams, 2022). The states of Utah, West Virginia, and North Dakota reported the highest number of out-of-state freshman students, while enrolling more college bound in-state students. In their analysis, the researchers found the university of Texas and the Texas A&M university to have the highest percentage of in-state first year students, while the University of Vermont had the lowest rate (Wills & Sandoval-Williams, 2022). Although they adopt different designs, the studies contend that the Covid19 pandemic significantly influenced students’ choices of majors as well as college selections, with most opting for institutions closer to home as a means to cut down on costs and ensure their safety.

Robust Satisficing as a Model for Effective Decision-Making

Schwartz et al. (2010) attempts to demonstrate how students could use the BE concept of robust satisficing when making decisions surrounding what colleges to join, what majors to pursue, and what amount of students’ loan to take up. The author differentiates robust satisficing from the common decision-making model of utility-maximization. Under the ulitity-maximization framework, the decision-maker arrives at the best possible decision by assigning probabilities and weights to the different alternatives, and then selecting the option that offers the highest score.

To illustrate how a student would apply the concept of utility maximization in selecting the most appropriate college; the author outlines a four-stage process. First, the student identifies all the factors that matter to them about a college, including reputation, size, location, quality of programs, and so on. Once they have identified these factors, they assign weights to each factor based on their subjective importance, such that the most important scores get the maximum score of 1, while the rest get subjective fractional scores. Thirdly, the student evaluates each available college option on the various factors, giving scores of between 1 and 10 for each factor. Finally, they obtain the product of scores and weights for each factor and school, and then select the school that offers the highest score.

Although it leads to a final decision, the model is associated with a lot of guesses and predictions that may be wrong or inaccurate (Schwartz et al., 2010). The author argues that robust satisficing simplifies the decision-making process. Under robust satisficing, the decision-maker would apply the info-gap decision theory, which focuses on adopting the decision that, although may not be the optimal decision, offers an outcome that is good enough (Schwartz et al., 2010). The method eliminates the idea of assigning weights and probabilities to possible outcomes. The student would need to begin by identifying their expected end-result, which is what they expect to gain from a college (Schwartz et al., 2010). They would then need to determine what college would help them realize the identified dream under the widest possible conditions (Schwartz et al., 2010). The foundation of robust satisficing is to identify a set of good enough schools that are indistinguishable. Then, it will not matter which one the student chooses, because it may be impossible to determine the best option in advance (Schwartz et al., 2010). The robustness function has to do with generating a set of preferred college choices that all offer a good enough outcome (Schwartz et al., 2010).

Chapter Three: Presentation of New Evidence using the Concept of Robust Satisficing

The review of literature in the preceding chapter leads to several conclusions in regard to the research questions. The first research question sought to determine how the Covid19 pandemic impacted the admission process for college students. Evidence drawn from the reviewed studies shows that the pandemic led to a shift in both college choices and major selection for first-year college students. More students opted for colleges closer to home, citing cost and safety concerns. This implies that during the pandemic, colleges enrolled more in-state first-year students, and had to deal with cases of other students migrating to campuses within their home states.

In regard to major selection, sources contend that the pandemic resulted in a shift in students’ interests from some traditionally popular courses such as medicine and teaching, firefighting, law-enforcement, and hospitality workers. During the pandemic, most students avoided these courses due to the massive layoffs witnessed and the dangers posed to professionals, opting for courses that offered more safety and flexibility in terms of not limiting one to a specific industry. Further, evidence has shown that the pandemic affected the demand for students’ loans among undergraduate students, which is another vital area in college admissions.