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¶ … technology s-curve analysis is useful to assess the developmental lifecycle stage of technology. The term s-curve refers to the share that the progress of the lifecycle will be seen as on a graph where the x axis is time and the y axis is performance (White & Bruton, 201). The line resembles an s, as shown in figure 1 below
Figure 1; the Technology S-Curve
The curve is useful as it will help to assess where technology is in the life cycle, and whether there are likely to be major improvements, or if the product is moving towards maturity if it will be vulnerable to substitute technology (White & Bruton, 2010). New technology that will be come a substitute is likely to start its lifecycle during the accelerated growth period of the exiting technology, so it is ready to become the substitute when the current technology reaches maturity. Understanding...
The s-curve may also be limited in terms of the timescale, as these may vary greatly.
(c & d) There are alternate lifecycle models, such as the product lifecycle and there are some strong arguments that rather than looking at single sc-curves, the s-curve itself may also be broken-down into a series of waves, as components of technology may be change and developed. However, it does not appear there is a model that can be argued as superior to the technology s-curve, and all other models appears to be variants…
(a) Key issues to remember in managing technology substitution include the way in which the consumers that buy the technology use it, and how the new products may be perceived in terms of acceptability (White & Bruton, 2010). This means looking not only at current needs, but at potential future consumer needs in order to ensure that the technology meets with market needs. Firms need to ensure potential substitutions will include the ability to satisfy needs and offer sufficient additional, but desired or useful benefits that will justify the consumer switching for a product that is likely to have a higher cost, and may include some inconvenience in terms of adapting to the changes in the technology (Kotler & Keller, 2011).
(b) When a firm manages technology substitution the process should begin before the technology is needed, so there is time for it to undergo the slower development stages before it is needed and can present with the enhanced performance the point the technology needs to be used as a substitution. The process should include focus on the market needs and forecasting consumer demand, as well as the technological capabilities and developments (White & Bruton, 2010). The process should also be undertaken in a manner that will protect the developments with patents etc...
(c) Managing technological substitution is important as now product will last forever; even lifecycle extension strategies will only prolong the lifecycle for a limited period of time. In technology where there is a highly competitive environment this is especially true. If the firm wishes to survive they will need to have product in place to act as substitutes, if they do not they will loose their customers to
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