Lucent Technology Case Study

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Lucent Technology After conducting a DuPont decomposition of Lucent's return on equity (ROE) from the first quarters of 1998, 1999, and 2000 it is essential to realize that those ROEs are, in order, .238, .179, and .072. It is highly important to see the downward trend in those ROEs, which was not commensurate with the company's stock during this time period. The company's stock was steadily rising while its ROE was steadily declining. There were several key factors that contributed to the differences in the company's performance during these key quarters. One of those factors was that the total shareholder equity had increased disproportionately to the company's net income and total assets. The shareholder equity in the first quarter of 2000, 16,079, was nearly four times that in the first quarter of 1998 ($4,671). This four times increases simply was not reflected in the company's assets, which increased from the...

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The same disproportionate increase in sales also was not commensurate with that of the shareholders equity, the latter of which doubled nearly every year.
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Upon evaluating the seasonally adjusted change in Lucent's sales, accounts receivable, inventory, and gross margin for each of the five quarterly periods from December 1998 to December 1999, it is evident that the company was ultimately experiencing financial woes prior to the time in which it went public with them. The most alarming figures are seen in its gross profit margin, which steadily declined after the March of 2009 quarter. The seasonally adjusted change in its sales fluctuated tremendously, rising and falling multiple times during this period, while its accounts receivables decline after June of 1999. It is…

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There is definitely evidence that suggests that Lucent's record streak of earnings was ending midway through 1999, before the dramatic drop at the beginning of the year 2000. That evidence I pertains to the decline in the gross margin that was discernible in June of 1999. There is some merit to the class action lawsuits because the company did not go public with this decline, which certainly overrides its fluctuations in sales that are apparent after reflecting upon the seasonally annual change in the five quarters examined. Additionally, the company's claim that that there were lower software revenues due to customers acquiring software more evenly through the year are largely unsubstantiated, and make it appear as though the company is floundering for excuses. More importantly, all of the press releases that the company provided during the latter half of 1999 certainly belie the reality of its financial woes, and make such lawsuits deserving alone.

I would not expect Lucent's earnings to recover by the second quarter of 2000. Obstacles to such a recovery include a tarnished reputation, too much inventory, and a steady decline in gross margin that are adversely affecting the company.


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