Philosophic Value In Nassim Taleb's Book Report

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The relationship between past success and previous ones are tenuous, at best. Therefore, the author widely advocates largely limiting oneself to historical media reports and specific financial analyses in order to funnel out what he believes amounts to noise, in order for traders to perceive true signals. Again, it is crucial to note that doing so is decidedly counterintuitive and the author posits the viewpoint that humans largely tend to determine causal relationships where a long time frame of analysis indicates such casualty simply does not exist. As such, Taleb propounds the notion that psychological and emotional factors -- with which most people use to make decisions, whether it is in stock trading or in other areas of life -- should be muted in order to make the most efficacious choices. When specifically applied to trading in the stock market, however, this theory of the author's takes on some slightly curious repercussions. In terms of his own personal trading (which by extension serves as an example for other people to use) Taleb bases his strategy on identifying and looking to maximize the utility of what he refers to as rare events. Such events are deviations from the norm that usually serve to cripple or seriously reduce the effectiveness of conventional traders. However, by actively looking to capitalize on such events, traders can actually optimize their practices when such events do occur. The following quotation suitably explains such a strategy.

…there is a category or traders who have inverse rare events, for whom volatility is often a bearer of good news. These traders lose money frequently, but in small amounts, and make money rarely, but in large amounts. I call them crisis hunters. I am happy to be one of them (Taleb, 2004, p. 106).

Although this passage succinctly summarizes the author's strategy towards trading, it certainly appears to contradict the majority of the findings discussed...

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Taleb's entire premise is based on the fact that randomness and luck account for the majority of success in trading as well as in life. It is somewhat surprising, then, to see him spend a good portion of this manuscript reiterating the point that his trading strategy is therefore based on this same luck. Granted, his approach is counterintuitive, as he is attempting to cash in on those rare instances of luck in which unexpected events occur that damage the trading of those who utilize conventional psychological and emotional approaches of trading based on the "noise" of previous events and media coverage. Yet it is still is based on a randomness in which one is simply blindly hoping for a rare event -- which is closely akin to the other approach he disparages in the manuscript in which people are simply looking to maximize their chances to benefit from luck. The prudent reader (and analyst) would have thought the author would have denoted some other form of strategy not so reliant on randomness.
Ultimately, however, the eminent role of luck in life and trading is the central point of this manuscript. Taleb's own personal take on the impartiality of fortune is merely a scion of this principle. It certainly does not appear to be any better (or worse, for that matter) than the conventional approach to trading that he generally maligns; instead, it is merely different. There is some value in offering a diversity of approaches to trading, of course, as readers are at least able to discern a few options. Nonetheless, it is worth noting that this particular reader was not convinced at all by Taleb's work, especially when applied to general events that take place in life. Chance may factor into outcomes, but it certainly does not negate sapience and astuteness in interpreting and acting on individual factors that affect outcomes.

Sources Used in Documents:

References

Taleb, N. (2004). Fooled by Randomness. New York: Texere.


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