The relationship between past success and previous ones are tenuous, at best. Therefore, the author widely advocates largely limiting oneself to historical media reports and specific financial analyses in order to funnel out what he believes amounts to noise, in order for traders to perceive true signals. Again, it is crucial to note that doing so is decidedly counterintuitive and the author posits the viewpoint that humans largely tend to determine causal relationships where a long time frame of analysis indicates such casualty simply does not exist. As such, Taleb propounds the notion that psychological and emotional factors -- with which most people use to make decisions, whether it is in stock trading or in other areas of life -- should be muted in order to make the most efficacious choices.
When specifically applied to trading in the stock market, however, this theory of the author's takes on some slightly curious repercussions. In terms of his own personal trading (which by extension serves as an example for other people to use) Taleb bases his strategy on identifying and looking to maximize the utility of what he refers to as rare events. Such events are deviations from the norm that usually serve to cripple or seriously reduce the effectiveness of conventional traders. However, by actively looking to capitalize on such events, traders can actually optimize their practices when such events do occur. The following quotation suitably explains such a strategy.
…there is a category or traders who have inverse rare events, for whom volatility is often a bearer of good news. These traders lose money frequently, but in small amounts, and make money rarely, but in large amounts. I call them crisis hunters. I am happy to be one of them (Taleb, 2004, p. 106).
Although this passage succinctly summarizes the author's strategy towards trading, it certainly appears to contradict the majority of the findings discussed...
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