Probability: Its Use In Business Term Paper

PAGES
2
WORDS
735
Cite

All models are not perfect mirrors of reality, merely guides for the business professional. But the models of basic integral calculus allow a businessperson to at least apply a few indeterminate variables or scenarios to a model, to price a particular product. For instance, when desiring to create a new product -- say, for instance, a shrimp-flavored potato chip, to be marketed in the United States, one might first conduct a marketing survey of a base of customers, to determine how much these consumers would be willing to pay for such a product. Usually, the cheaper the product, the more consumers would be willing or interested in adding such a product to their biweekly shopping list, although this is not uniformly the case -- with certain luxury products the price and the unavailability of a product is part of its attraction. A manager would then, after plotting such responses of consumers to pricing scenarios upon a graph, would pair these against a given set of current and possible economic circumstances. Consumers would no doubt be more willing to pay more for potato chips in a healthy economy,...

...

Then, the marketer would attempt to determine what price different markets and different states of overall national economic health could probably sustain, while still covering the costs of production of the new flavor. A number of different probable outcomes would have to be generated from the model, given consumer's willingness to pay various prices, the existence in particular markets of competitive substitutes, the economic conditions of the market as a whole, and the variance of the costs of production. Once national marketing and distribution began, moreover, an analysis of projected sales in various demographic and geographic markets would have to be conducted.
The uses of probability in business, thus, are nearly infinite, as they are infinitely important. Although it offers no concrete answers, because it allows for indeterminacy, rather than offering fixed solutions, the use of probability in business mathematical models is a necessary, if occasionally frustrating 'reality check' upon the imagination of business owners and entrepreneurs.

Cite this Document:

"Probability Its Use In Business" (2004, October 15) Retrieved April 20, 2024, from
https://www.paperdue.com/essay/probability-its-use-in-business-57587

"Probability Its Use In Business" 15 October 2004. Web.20 April. 2024. <
https://www.paperdue.com/essay/probability-its-use-in-business-57587>

"Probability Its Use In Business", 15 October 2004, Accessed.20 April. 2024,
https://www.paperdue.com/essay/probability-its-use-in-business-57587

Related Documents

This distribution can be applied to multiple business situations even where data is distributed differently, because a normal distribution adopts the central limit theorem which suggests that no matter how a population is distributed, the distribution "of the means of random samples approaches a normal distribution for a large sample size" (ICMBA, 2002). Business executives can use normal business distribution to create diversified asset portfolios, to calculate process variations within

Business and Ethics The business ethics checklist Organizational Decisions-Making on Substandard Products Unaccountable products from companies or manufacturers are often regarded dangerous, unsafe and substandard, both by the target consumers and government. Unfortunately, toy products stand among the most affected group of items within the field of production. Sub-standard products are those that do not meet the legal and safety standards and/or qualities set by the pertinent authorities. Such products may result due

Uses of visualization in business analytics include market segmentation analysis and factor analysis to define new audience segments based on psychographics. Visualization is often also used for pricing analysis to determine how elasticity can vary by product and area being sold into. 6. What are the steps involved in effective decision making and how can business intelligence assist in helping executive and managers make better strategic and operational decisions? Effective decision

. One tactic which has made the John Doe group unique in the industry is its recognition of the importance of community in the viability of individual enterprises. Its damaged relationship with the communities in which it has sought to operate can be rectified by aspects of its model which are already in place. Though the company operates thousands of funeral service establishments from a centralized point of authority, its

Business Mentoring Mentoring is a critical job and is important for the one providing it as well as the party seeking it. The business parties seeking mentoring are normally those that are beginners and they wish to avoid problems by seeking expert advice. On the other hand the mentor's credibility and business experience is proved when he offers mentoring and advice. Theft and fraud are two most common issues faced by

Business Risks -- Overview of the Risk Environment There are various types of business risks in the business environment, and these risks, of course, can differ from environment to environment depending on the type of business or organization. The severity and category of the risk also depends on the largeness of the organization and on various other factors, such as location, personality of employer, quantity of employees employed, and so forth