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Project Management and Deployment
Database implementation specialist Richard Winter, in his article titled "Think Systematically," provides a compelling argument for why proof-of-concepts lower risk and reduce the chance of poor decisions. He does so through the a compelling analysis using decision trees combined with probabilities of outcomes and expected value calculations to demonstrate the economics of two distinct decisions, a full-scale proof-of-concept or work that proceeds immediately to implementation. Winter demonstrates the delays associated with proof-of-concepts are well worth the increase in expected value of a project.
In his example of a data warehouse implementation project, Winter makes several critical assumptions. First, he assumes that there's a 50/50 chance that the project will be a success if proceeding directly to building the data warehouse. Secondly, the proof-of-concept...
Finally, if the proof-of-concept produces results that show that the project will not meet all business requirements, the project will either be modified or postponed/cancelled.
Although a simplification of a complex decision tree analysis, the following points are worth yof note in Winter's calculations. The loss associated with a system failure without a proof-of-concept is much higher than the cost of a proof-of-concept. In Winter's example, the proof-of-concept is $2 million vs. The cost of the failure which is $10 million. For a project that moves beyond the proof-of-concept, the probability of success increases because necessary adjustments are identified. These modifications may either lower the business benefit of the solution or increase the technical costs…
Bibliography
Winter, Richard. "Think Systematically." Intelligent Enterprise Mar. 2000. 20 Aug. 2003. http://www.wintercorp.com/rwintercolumns/thinksystematically.html.
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