Russia, Ukraine and the End of the Western Rules-Based World Order

Russia, Ukraine and the End of the Western Rules-Based World Order

Abstract:

The war in Ukraine is a war for control—not just of eastern Ukraine or Crimea but of the global order. For decades, the global order has been arranged by the US—the dominant power to emerge at the end of World War II. The US dollar has been the reserve currency of the world, and through that reserve currency status the US has unofficially held the reins of power and international authority. Russia and China, however, want to change all that—and the war in Ukraine is the first stage of a brewing conflict between the West and the East / Global South. It is very likely to lead to World War III if some truce or conclusion is not arrived at soon. With the way things have been escalating, peace seems to be the last thing the world will get in 2023.

Introduction:

The start of hostilities in Ukraine began in 2022, but conflict has been ongoing for years—not just between the Ukrainian government and secessionists in the east but also between the Western world and Russia. On the one hand, the Russia / Ukraine war is about antagonism between the new Ukrainian government’s anti-Russian stance and the pro-Russian position of Ukrainians in the east. On the other hand, the Russia / Ukraine war is about antagonism between the eagle (the US and its allies and vassals) and the Bear and its friends (Russia and China et al.). In short, there is more to the war than meets the eye.

Thesis Statement:

The official narrative in the West is that Russia invaded Ukraine in an unprovoked attack—but this is not really true or consistent with a long- or even short-term view of history.

Body of Paper:

The Russia / Ukraine War goes all the way back to Putin’s rise to power at the end of the 20th century: Putin—first appointed by an ailing Yeltsin—and then elected by the people to lead Russia out of the hands of the oligarchs that had robbed the country at point blank, chased out of the nation the oligarchic crown jewel of the Kremlin: Boris Berezovsky (Klebnikov). Berezovsky fled to the UK, where he quickly hatched plans for revenge—via Ukraine (Mezrich).

Ukraine was newly independent and more or less pro-Russia at the time. However, it was Berezovksy’s intention to put into power his own people and exact his revenge. Others supported that intention. As a result of the Berezovsky-supported Orange Revolution of 2004-5, democratically-elected president and pro-Putin Yanukovych was denied the election and his opponent took office (Russian Godfathers). In 2010, Yanukovych was again elected back into office. This time, the opposition acted with more violence (a coup) and literally ran him out of the country four years later. A new leader (an actor) named Zelensky was installed.

Under Zelensky, Ukraine launched an attack on the inhabitants of the eastern region, the people who were very pro-Russia and very pro-Putin. A Ukrainian civil war ensued. Following the coup of 2014, the people of Crimea held a referendum to leave Ukraine and join Russia (dubbed an illegal annexation by the West) (Pifer). In 2012 the people of the Donbass and other nearby regions did the same. Russia entered Ukraine that same year to defend the people of the east against the Zelensky-led government’s attacks. Zelensky decried it as an act of aggression and hostility on the part of Putin. Western states did the same. The US demanded sanctions that virtually cut Russia out of the Western “rules-based” order, prohibiting the sale of Russian oil, stealing the assets (i.e., yachts, mansions, and bank accounts) of Russian oligarchs in the West (like Roman Abromovich)—not to mention the assets (gold) of Russia itself that were still held in Western banks (Vincent). The move caused Russia and China to become closer—and it also spurred the Global South into a closer relationship with Russia and China, who said, “See how the West treats us? They cannot be trusted. Cross them and they will seize your assets without a second thought.”

The Russia / Ukraine war is not just a war over the sovereignty and self-determination of the people of that land. It is also a proxy war between the West and the East. As such, there are many different narratives being told about it. Western mainstream narratives promote the narrative that Putin is a thug and that Russia is losing the war. More “objective” observers who point out the justification of Russia’s actions, Russia’s gains or the efficacy of Russia’s military strategy tend to be labeled as Russian sympathizers. The reality of the situation is that the war is hell for everyone involved, and the truth is generally to be found somewhere in the middle.

One of the strong points on the Russian side of things is the paramilitary contract force known as Wagner Group. It has taken the salt mines of Bakhmut and has led numerous victories against the Ukrainian forces. It has also been targeted by the Ukraine military. Ordinarily, Ukraine would not be able to launch the kind of assaults seen, but Western states, from the US to UK to France to Germany and on and on, have given vast artillery and funds to Ukraine. Ukraine recently received a pledge of battle tanks from Western governments, including the US, UK and Germany. F-16s now appear to be in demand—but so far states are reluctant to send them. As Ukraine has already received billions upon billions of dollars from the West to pay for its war with Russia, Russia appears more and more determined to see the war out to its bitter end. Commentators fear the risk of World War III is now closer than ever before, and the Doomsday clock is now pointing to 90 seconds to midnight (Bulletin of Atomic Scientists).

Add to this the fact that Zelensky is trying to get Ukraine into NATO and the whole thing becomes clear: the Russia / Ukraine war is a de facto Russia / NATO war—i.e., Russia is facing off against the collective West—and it has all come to a head in Ukraine. Truth be told, it was a long time coming. Yes, Berezovsky got the ball rolling, but he couldn’t have done it without help. He not only relied on other oligarchs around the world (from the Bushes in the US to Ukraine’s own media mogul), but he also relied on the Cold War enthusiasm that had never really waned, even after the Berlin Wall came down and Communism fell in the former Soviet Union. There persisted a pernicious Us vs. Them mentality in the West. Russia, for a time, tried to play nice—but Putin saw the writing on the wall from the beginning and urged Russians to get out of the West. He did so for years, prior to the onset of war. The fact of the matter is that the West and Russia have been at odds since before World War II. They made strange bedfellows as Allies in the war against the Axis—but perhaps not that strange (after all, some would say that Communism and Capitalism are really just the two sides of the same materialistic coin). But going as far back as the American Civil War, when the Russian Tsar Alexander II supported Lincoln and his greenback (against the bankers), Western power brokers have seen Russia as a meddlesome threat. Those power brokers are now keener than ever to have it out—perhaps this time for all the marbles.

Conclusion:

The Russia / Ukraine war is not just about Ukraine and a few parcels of land. It is about the global balance of power and dollar hegemony. It is about reserve currency status. It is about whether the West still has the muscle to force its “rules-based” order on the rest of the world. Russia and China want a multi-polar world order. The US and its vassal states want to sit at the top—alone, without peers. The war in Ukraine is a king of the castle type of conflict: the outcome will determine the system of international order for the next century.