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¶ … Slow
The Illusion of Validity.
In this chapter, Kahneman pursues the further implications of two principles described earlier in the book. One is WYSIATI, or What You See Is All There Is: this is the tendency to tell a coherent story based on the immediate visible evidence, without consideration that there might be significant additional evidence. The second is Confidence by Coherence: in Kahneman's account, a story that feels coherent gives a person an unwarranted sense of confidence. Confidence in a judgment usually means that an individual has constructed a coherent story about available evidence, not that the story is true. And feeling confident about one's judgments creates the illusion of validity and the illusion of skill in making those judgments, even when it is contradicted by the evidence. The average stock-trader on Wall Street actually performs a worse job than if the stocks were traded randomly -- what happens is that the illusion of skill and the illusion of validity cause the trader to feel confident, even though the numerical evidence shows that the trader is not showing consistency in achievement (the mark of actual skill) rather than luck.
Chapter 21: Intuitions vs. Formulas
Studies have shown that, in various fields of prediction, experts are inferior to simple mathematical algorithms. Why? For the same reason that...
But also experts are inclined to take a nuanced view of the subject, and to allow for extraordinary possibilities which, statistically speaking, will never happen. Subjective judgments do not work as well as a simple mathematical formula in most cases.
Chapter 22: Expert Intuition: When Can We Trust It?
If the previous chapter showed that the predictive judgments of experts usually have worse results than a mathematical formula trying to make the same prediction, in this chapter Kahneman describes when experts can be trusted. In circumstances where both "Systems" ("Fast" and "Slow") of thinking get used -- the "intuition" of experts is no more than recognizing patterns that the expert has seen before. Memory of previous experience is triggered without us knowing how, especially if that previous experience had an emotional component. Intuitions are only trustworthy if they are formed in an environment that is (a) regular enough to be predictable, and (b) offers the opportunity to learn these regularities through prolonged practice. In other words, the expert has to have had an environment that is conducive to learning, and has to have actually learned. Nurses…
Aristoxenos, two centuries after Pythagoras released his model, sought to discredit the standing theories held by Pythagorean devotees. In his works, he established that numbers are not relevant to music, and that music is based on perception of what one hears, not any mathematical equation. Descartes as well as Vincenzo Galilei (Galileo's father) both also discredited the music-to-math theories that formed the revolutionary basis for Pythagoras' music work, but not
A cursory glance at job market statistics offers a grim picture, leading many to pessimistic conclusions. The United States Department of Labor’s Bureau of Labor Statistics points out that increasing numbers of young people are graduating from college and entering the job market now, leading to increased competition in many job sectors (1). Likewise, rates of unemployment have been at near-record lows, especially for young men (United States Department of
Pedagogic Model for Teaching of Technology to Special Education Students Almost thirty years ago, the American federal government passed an act mandating the availability of a free and appropriate public education for all handicapped children. In 1990, this act was updated and reformed as the Individuals with Disabilities Education Act, which itself was reformed in 1997. At each step, the goal was to make education more equitable and more accessible to
Clinical Psychology Dissertation - Dream Content as a Therapeutic Approach: Ego Gratification vs. Repressed Feelings An Abstract of a Dissertation Dream Content as a Therapeutic Approach: Ego Gratification vs. Repressed Feelings This study sets out to determine how dreams can be used in a therapeutic environment to discuss feelings from a dream, and how the therapist should engage the patient to discuss them to reveal the relevance of those feelings, in their present,
Occupational Stress and Scientific MonitoringElena Georgiou*AbstractThe aim of this project was to review evidence available on occupational stress and how it can be monitored scientifically. Closed-ended questionnaires were used to obtain data from 150 participants. Data was analyzed using OLS (Ordinary Least Squares) regression analysis. Data included the demographic background of participants: age, sex, and their occupational background. From the demographic background, all participants (150) were literate where more than
" The analysis cited above continues to describe the ways in which corporate "life" (in the sense of how many different individuals and entities are vital to the running of a corporation in the current climate): Businesses today must be consumer, profit, and publicly oriented. Only a few years ago, the first two would have sufficed. But, in support of our dualistic argument regarding the marketing concept, that is -- creating exchanges