Antarctic ozone hole effects on Southern Hemisphere precipitation patterns

Statistical Research

A study performed by Sarah Kang and Lorenzo M. Polvani from the Columbia University claims the Earth's ozone layer hole has affected atmospheric circulation in the Southern hemisphere all the way to the equator, leading to increased rainfall in the subtropics (Kang, 2011). Previous work showed the ozone caused a dominant westerly jet stream in the mid-latitudes to move toward the pole with accompanying shifts in precipitation patterns. This study used different computerized climate models in the effort to identify the impact of the ozone depletion compared to other factors. The experiment found moistening in high latitudes, drying in mid-latitudes, and moistening in the subtropics. Between fifteen and thirty five degrees south, the researchers saw about a ten percent increase in precipitation. The depletion of the ozone layer, from 8 to 25 miles up, has caused severe cooling in the stratosphere, expanding to the troposphere, and altering in the air circulation patterns. The study found that high altitude shifts helped lower altitude changes causing higher precipitation in the subtropics.

Some misconceptions exist between the Antarctic ozone hole and changes in surface weather and climate (Karoly, 2012). The ozone hole absorbs less UV radiation cooling the stratosphere over Antarctica in spring and summer. The changes in the Southern ocean currents, gas exchanges from Southern ocean, the atmosphere, and in the expansions of sea ice extent stem from the stronger encircling winds that are leading to reduced heat transfer from the lower altitudes. The reduction of ozone depleting chemicals is to reduce the ozone layer depletion, not just global warming.

Statement of the Problem

There are still issues of; the South Pole colder air, ozone depleting chemicals that remain in the atmosphere, and ice crystals that the chemical reactions take place upon (Significant Ozone Hole Remains Over Antarctica, 2011). Researchers expect the ozone hole to persist one to two decades longer than previous predictions due to the long life times of chemicals still in the stratospheric ozone. Will the precipitation shifts start to affect the whole earth in time?

Research Questions and Hypothesis

To investigate the research problem the following questions have been identified:

Research Question 1: Where the ozone hole has already shown shifts in precipitation in the subtropics, will it continue on to affect the whole earth as long as the chemicals are in the stratospheric atmosphere?

Hypothesis: The shifts in precipitation patterns will continue to change.

Null Hypothesis: The shifts in precipitation patters will not continue to change.

Method

Data Analysis

The mean for the ozone hole in 1979 was 225.0 compared to 106.2 in 2011, indicating a decrease in the ozone hole. Temperatures are showing shifts to warmer temperatures with record highs in recent years. Precipitation results are showing less precipitation.

Conclusion

The results of analysis are showing a change in precipitation patterns. The earth is getting warmer as it has increased temperatures. Precipitation patterns are shifting for different regions. Where they are warmer with more drought-like conditions in the Northern Hemisphere, some areas are showing flooding with increased precipitation.