Warning/Action Briefing Note on Guinea

¶ … Warning/Action Briefing Note on Guinea

Guinea is home to more than 10 billion individuals and the growth rate is stated at 2.572% (U.S. Department of State, 2009) The government of Guinea is a military government with government branches including the Executive branch which is comprised by the elected president of Guinea and the current head of state is a military officer who seized power. Captain Moussa Dadis Camara took power in what is called a "bloodless coup" in December 2008. The Prime Minister is the head of government and existing is a cabinet of civilian ministers. The Legislative body is the elected National Assembly (114 seats) and the Judicial branch of Guinea's government is the Supreme Court. (U.S. Department of State, 2009) Political parties in Guinea are those as follows:

Pro-government -- Party for Unity and Progress (PUP);

Opposition -- Rally for the Guinean People (RPG);

Union for Progress and Renewal (UPR);

Union of Democratic Forces of Guinea (JFDG);

Union for Progress of Guinea (UPG);

Union of Republican Forces (UFR) (U.S. Department of State, 2009)

Ethnic groups of Guinea include the following groups:

Peuhl (Foula or Foulani), who inhabit the mountainous Fouta Djallon;

Malinke (or Mandingo), in the savannah and forest regions;

Soussous in the coastal areas; and Several small groups (Gerze, Toma, etc.) in the forest region (U.S. Department of State, 2009)

It is reported that the first elected president of Guinea, Sekou Toure ruled Guinea "with an iron fist until his death and that Toure was from the Mandingo tribe. It is stated that Toure's "…viciousness towards the Fulani, the Soussou and other ethnic groups was well-known and never forgotten. The composition of late General Conte's military council that toppled the government of Sekou Toure, of predominantly officers from the Soussou, the Fulani, and other tribes is a living testament to that reality. The late General Lansana Conte followed a similar trajectory throughout his long reign over the battered West African nation." (Minteh, 2009)

It is additionally stated that as the minority Soussou are at "the core of Guinea's military elite, the military coup that propelled erratic Captain Dadis Camara to power brought to light the complexities of Guinea's political nexus. Coming from the Mandingo tribe, Captain Camara's plan of announcing his intention of running for political office was met with stiff resistance." (Minteh, 2009) It is reported additionally that the ethnic divisions in Guinea have worsened the situation since the Fulani tribe strongly claim that it is "their time to take over the helm of Guinean state affairs." (Minteh, 2009)

It is reported that an assassination attempt on Dadis which incidentally was a failed attempt has resulted in the Guinean civilian opposition movement regrouping "seeking to claim its own place among a growing crowd of candidates eager to step into the power vacuum created by Dadis' absence." (Gelfant, 2009)

II. SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS

A. Threats/Vulnerabilities

The present situation in Guinea is one of unrest due to a highly volatile political situation. (U.S. Department of State, 2010) The president of Guinea, Conte, has been called on for many years by government in Western countries to "allow greater political freedom and improve the management of government finances" so that full-scale aid can be restored to Guinea. Stated as key demands are "that the government allow private radio and television stations to exist alongside the state media, engage in genuine dialogue with the opposition to make elections free and fair and introduce more transparency in public finances to cut down on corruption." (IRIN, 2010)

The economy of Guinea is said to have crumbled in the past two years with Guineans witnessing "the price of rice, the country's staple food, rise steadily, while salaries have stagnated and living standards have fallen." (IRIN, 2010) In addition it is stated that "corruption and economic decline have reduced government revenues, forcing the central bank to print more bank notes to cover the growing budget deficit." (IRIN, 2010) Inflation is stated to have risen from 6.1% in 2002 to 14% in 2003 and to have again doubled to 28% in 2004. (IRIN, 2010, paraphrased) Minimum wage in Guinea is equal to $36 per month in the United States.

B. Strengths/Capacities

The strengths of Guinea are comprised by the country's natural resources and potential industries specifically those of agriculture, fishing, and minerals. Guinea is a country that is blessed richly with minerals including more than 25 billion metric tons of bauxite and more than 4 billion tons of high-grade iron ore, as well as large deposits of gold, diamonds and uranium. Guinea is further blessed with great agricultural and fishing potential. However, Guinea is characterized by an infrastructure that is poorly developed and ongoing corruption that places barriers to investment projects large in scale.

III. RECOMMENDED EARLY ACTIONS

The government of Guinea should relax restrictions on the Guinean society at-large in terms of democracy and freedom and transparency in the government and its actions would go far in this initiative. It is reported that the United Nations has earmarked funds to assist Guinea but that however these funds are being withheld until the level of political unrest in Guinea has subsided.

Investment in Guinea is for the present time not forthcoming and this is just one negative outcome of all the political unrest. In fact, the formation of an economic council that is comprised of representatives from all ethnic and political groups with a focus on bringing the country's economy back around to potential and productivity from its current state of decline and poverty should serve to forge common bonds that will transverse the present ethnic and political conflict in Guinea.